The Just-Call

I wrote a column last year describing the benefits of going all in preflop with A-K in no-limit hold'em ("Fold Equity – Why Aggressiveness Makes Mathematical Sense"; Vol. 18/No. 12). That column generated a ton of feedback from Card Player readers. Some found it interesting and some found it lacking, but a lot of people simply just latched on to the bottom line: "Go all in with A-K."



I never said, nor do I believe, that to play A-K correctly is to blindly move all of your chips in every time. There are plenty of situations in which A-K should be folded before the flop, and even some situations in which (gasp!) flat-calling with A-K is a reasonable play. I wrote the "Fold Equity" column because I'd noticed many people playing A-K far too passively, and I wanted to make the point that aggression with A-K should be the default tactic.



To prove, however, that I am not a move-in specialist, and that I don't always advocate shoving in preflop, I'd like to take a look at some situations in which I believe flat-calling is the best play.



I like to just-call preflop in the following situations:



1. When stacks are deep. Let's say it's the World Series of Poker main event, level one, and we all have $10,000 in chips with blinds of $25-$50. An unknown player opens from early position for $150, and I look down at 6-5 suited, or pocket sevens, or even A-4 suited. If I choose to reraise with any of these hands, I risk having the early-position player move in on me (or at least make a large reraise), shutting me out of the hand. From a numbers standpoint, I lose my chance to win $10,000 in chips from my opponent's stack, and all I had to gain from reraising was the $225 in chips already in the pot. Well, this isn't entirely true, because the early-position player can choose to just-call my reraise himself, but the potential reward from reraising is still quite small compared to the risk of having to fold my hand before the flop. If, instead, I flat-call the raise, I get to play the flop in position against an unknown player, with a hand that has the potential to win a big pot (especially if my opponent is the type to overplay a big pair). That's the kind of situation I'm trying to get myself in.



2. When I have a "flop hand." The central point I made in the "Fold Equity" column was this: "With hands that want to reach a showdown, like A-K … it's important to get money into the pot as soon as possible." I stand by that point, but I also acknowledge that there are plenty of hands that don't necessarily want to see a showdown. I think of these hands as "flop hands," meaning I'd like to see a flop with them before I evaluate whether the money should go in. I think of hands with two big cards in them (like A-K) as "preflop hands" – hands that want to get the money in as quickly as possibly. Against a range of hands of pairs of fives or better, A-Q, and A-K ­- a typical range that you might see in an all-in situation – A-K has 47.5 percent equity before the flop. But on a flop of J-7-3, A-K's equity drops to 35.6 percent against that range. At the same time, 8-8 has 45 percent equity against the above range before the flop. But after a flop of J-7-3, 8-8 moves up to 47 percent equity. Furthermore, it will be hard for A-K to ever make money when it hits the flop, because opponents can see when an ace or king has hit the board, and probably will not pay off with their medium pairs. When a medium pair hits a set, however, it will often result in a big win. Therefore, I often prefer to call preflop raises with "flop hands" like medium pairs, and I often prefer to reraise with "preflop hands."



3. When a reraise would get action only from aces. Let's say the stacks are not just deep, but really deep. You're playing the World Poker Tour Championship and you've got $50,000 in chips with blinds of only $50-$100. The under-the-gun player (UTG) opens for $300 and you make it an even $1,000 with pocket kings. Everyone folds back to UTG, who reraises to $4,000. What are you supposed to do now? Some would argue that you have the second nuts, and therefore should be more than willing to put in the fourth raise here. But what are the benefits of this play? Against typical players in that very strong field, you are unlikely to ever get action from a worse hand. I can promise that you'll get action from aces. The only real benefit of raising again is that you're likely to win the pot immediately against all worse hands. That's nice, but given how deep you are, you probably can make more money in the long run by taking a flop in position with your two kings against those worse hands. And finally, if you reraise to $12,500 and UTG moves in, you probably have to throw your kings away. Putting in a quarter of your stack with two kings and then mucking them before the flop is not a very good strategy. I've never folded kings preflop, and that's partially because I try not to put myself in situations in which folding kings would be a reasonable choice.



And just for fun, here's one time I like to just-call on the flop:



When I'm not too worried about free cards/when there are very few semibluffing hands in my range. If my opponent bets into me on a board of Q-7-3, it's somewhat hard for me to raise. If I raise, I can't really be semibluffing, since there aren't any draws on that board. So, I either have a hand I'm committed to or I have a hand I'll fold to heavier action. Not only that, but I am probably either way ahead or way behind. If I'm way ahead, I'd like my opponent to keep betting at the pot. If I'm way behind, I want to put as little money in the pot as possible – and it would probably cost me just as much to raise as it would to call on the flop and the turn (if I even choose to call on the turn). I'm not saying I'll never raise this flop, but I'm saying that calling is probably my default play on this board, whether I have a set, a queen, or two nines. That's usually how I make the most when I'm ahead, and lose the least when I'm behind – especially if my opponent is not the type to make a big laydown.



So, there it is – I don't always think all in is the best play. Sometimes, I like to just-call. Notice, however, that in none of these examples do I recommend flat-calling a raise with A-K preflop. I like to think I can amend an earlier column, and stick to my guns at the same time.

Matt Matros is the author of The Making of a Poker Player, which is available online at http://www.cardplayer.com/.