Randomizing and Shifting Gears

Many players play on "autopilot." They have a set strategy in their minds and they follow it diligently when at the table. Against unobservant weak opponents, a good rote strategy can often be enough to win. Not having to analyze every situation independently definitely makes playing poker a much easier task. You don't have to concentrate as hard and can spend more of your poker time socializing, checking out the cocktail servers, or watching your favorite sports show.



However, if you are playing with observant opponents who can get a read on your play, your game loses much of its value. I often see players who were once very good, focused, successful professionals fall into the autopilot trap. They have just lost their heart to play poker effectively. Of course, they are the same ones who talk the talk about how you can run bad for years on end!



If you are an observant player with good poker knowledge, you can pick these autopilot players apart. Once you have a line on their thinking, you shouldn't make very many critical high-cost errors against them. And you should be able to use your knowledge of their thinking to trap them into making high-cost errors against you. For example, if you know that they usually bluff in a given situation, raising them as a bluff in that situation is going to have strong value, or if you hold a hand, letting them bluff off their chips can garner yourself valuable extra bets.



Once you have a predictable line on your opponents, you should be able to avoid giving them action when they hold a good hand and you hold an inferior one, and you should be able to make bluffs in positions in which you know that play is a strong one. You also should be able to manipulate your opponents into making mistakes against you when you hold a good hand by slow-playing in the right situations and value-betting with strong knowledge of your opponents' holdings, thus gaining extra bets that add up significantly over time. And the best thing about this is that your opponents will likely never figure out what is wrong, justifying to themselves that you are taking all of their money because you're getting lucky on them.



Conversely, you want to make sure that you are not being read by your opponents. A popular approach to randomizing your play is to choose a particular hand and play it in a nonstandard way. I did this for years in my youth with Q-3, and noted theoretician David Sklansky did so with 8-3. Nonstandard plays have more value when made early in your session – especially on the Internet, where people tend to take the first thought they have about you and stick with it; indeed, many of them are making notes about it.



The key to any game theory approach to randomization is that you define a parameter and let that parameter, rather than subjective or decision-making variables, define the play. If the triggering parameter is not defined by the deck – that is, perhaps it's every time the cocktail server comes to the table, or every time there's a beer commercial on the TV – it will be extremely unlikely that any opponent will pick up on your system.



I think, though, that there is a better method than pure game theory for shifting gears, and it is the one I use in my play. It's something that doesn't sacrifice much in the way of edge.



When you make a nonstandard play – that is, a play that is not the one that gives you the largest edge in the current situation (note that ideally the edge is made up for, and then some, in future hands) – you are giving up the difference in edge between playing the hand in its best manner and playing it in a deceptive manner. That said, sometimes playing it in a deceptive manner has better value than playing it in a standard manner. Whenever you can play a hand in a deceptive manner and increase its value, you obviously should do so. You create the best of both worlds, gaining value and creating deception in your opponents' minds. For example, you cannot put in the fourth bet preflop when you hold wired aces and are heads up with an opponent who has three-bet you and you think he has a big pair. In such a situation, you are likely to be able to beat him out of many more future bets than if you had put in the fourth bet and your opponent suspected that you held aces.



But other scenarios and textures of games present themselves at the poker table. Changing gears effectively means adjusting to the texture of the game and the ability of your opponents. Some players make no effort to read their opponents, basing the value of their hand solely on its own merits. Against such unobservant opponents, you should not make any play that gives up edge as a means of deception; if you do so, you are just wasting money.



Observant opponents are a different animal. Some players make efforts to read their opponents, but don't trust their own judgments and don't act on their reads. Don't make deception plays against them until they start acting on their reads. Oftentimes against these opponents, I find that they pay me off while knowing they are beat, until they get sick of losing the bets and start laying down hands. Once I get them into that mindset, many bluffing opportunities present themselves and I start firing bluffs at them. At some point, they get suspicious and pay off with a winning hand, and then I am back to not being able to bluff them again, as they no longer trust their own judgment. Instead, I gain equity from them by making looser value bets, knowing I am going to get paid off by weaker hands. Once you get to the point where you are making those types of judgments effectively, you will own some of your opponents and they will tell you how good you run against them. Don't argue that point; just nod your head and agree with them!



If you are playing against expert readers – those players who possess the knowledge to read you and have the confidence in their reads to act upon them – you need to take it to the next level. Think about their knowledge, how they are reading you, what plays they have seen from you, and how they will interpret that information and act on it. Then, have confidence in your read and act upon it. Even if you are wrong, the play will create some deceptive value.



Randomize your play, thereby creating deception in your opponents' minds, by changing gears based on your reads of a situation. While in a pure game theory approach you take your own analysis out of the situation and let external events dictate the moment and method of deception, against all but the very best knowledgeable and observant opponents, letting the texture of the game and the nature of the individual situation dictate when and how to shift gears is more profitable for most players in most games.



It should be a constantly evolving process, with more information added to the equation with every hand played. By handling your gear changes in that manner, you should be making effective plays and creating doubt and confusion in your opponents' minds. And over time, their doubt should translate to profits for yourself.

Roy Cooke played winning professional poker for more than 16 years. He is a successful real estate broker/salesperson in Las Vegas. His books are available at http://www.conjelco.com/. His longtime collaborator, John Bond, is a freelance writer in South Florida.