Playing Scared

A friend of mine recently rode the poker roller coaster. You know how a roller coaster works: It goes up high and comes down fast, and the ride down can be very scary.

Vito (we will call him) came to Las Vegas with great skill and a decent bankroll. Immediately, he exhibited the Midas touch. His skill, combined with great cards and lots of action, made him a big winner. As he won, it seemed so easy. He played for higher stakes and won more. He played for even higher stakes and seemed to reach that point at the top of the roller coaster at which you sort of stand still for a moment and then plunge toward the earth. The competition got better, his luck got worse, and the high stakes ate away at his beautifully built bankroll.

Somewhat chastened, he dropped a bit in stakes (nowhere near enough), but the losing continued. Variance can be cruel to all of us, and Vito found himself back in the $30-$60 game, which was quite a drop from the lofty $200-$400 heights he had attained.

At this point, he had only $3,000 left, which was far from the bankroll he needed to play in a $30-$60 game. However, his faith in his skill was still there, though a bit tarnished, and he simply could not envision himself playing any lower.

During a session, an interesting hand arose that I thought was particularly instructive.

THE HAND: He picked up the 10 10 in late position. A decent player (DP) who was trying to play well raised from middle position, and Vito three-bet. The big blind, a loose, undisciplined gambler (LUG) called the three bets, as did DP.

The flop was J 10 2. After LUG checked, DP bet, and Vito raised. So far, so good. LUG called the two bets and DP reraised. Vito elected to call, as did LUG. The turn was the J, and LUG bet out. This time, DP just called, and Vito, with his full house, called behind him.

The river paired the deuce, making the board J 10 2 J 2. LUG bet again, and DP folded. Vito, figuring LUG just had to have a jack for his series of plays, folded.

Whether borne of frustration or just looking for sympathy, Vito decided to show everyone his full house. In response, LUG showed his hand, as well. He had held the A Q and quietly started stacking the pot.

Later, Vito tried to explain his actions.

THE EXPLANATION: Vito seemed to have reasons for all of his plays.

Why didn't he keep raising on the flop? "I thought the guy on my right would lead on the turn, and I wanted to raise for more value and to eliminate the third guy."

Well, why didn't he raise on the turn when he made a full house? "I figured the original raiser (DP) had K-K or Q-Q and the guy who led on the turn (LUG) would lead again. I thought that if I raised on the turn, the guy with the high pair would fold, but if I called, he would call the other guy on the river and I could trap him for an extra bet."

Why didn't he call on the river when the pot was 13.5 big bets? "I knew the guy who led when the jack came on the turn had to have a jack. I can't believe he was semibluffing the turn with nothing but a gutshot into a paired board."

ANALYSIS: These explanations seemed contrived to me. I was certain that the Vito of a year ago, when everything was working and the cash was flowing, would have been a lot more aggressive in the same situation. He would have raised more on the flop, raised on the turn, and, if it came to that, made a crying call of the loose, undisciplined player on the river. He never would have lost that hand.

Vito, like so many others, fell victim to the mindset that afflicts those who are running badly. They lose heart, and they try to save money. They play scared. If LUG had not exposed his bluff, Vito still would be congratulating himself for playing the hand the way he did and "losing the minimum."

Players going through a series of losses and bad beats begin to expect them. Not only do they play less aggressively, which invites people to stay in to beat them, they also tend to give up at the first sign of trouble.

When I came to Las Vegas, I encountered a player on the downslide who played just like that. We would play something like the following sequence: He would raise preflop, and I would call from the big blind with pocket nines. The flop would come Q-7-5 with two hearts. I would check and call his bet. On the turn, a small heart would come. I would check, he would bet, and I would check-raise, representing a flush. He would immediately throw his hand away (frequently showing cards like K-K or A-Q), and complain that nothing ever went right for him. In a way, he was correct.

One of the hardest things for a player on a losing streak to do is remain positive and aggressive. And if that player is also playing higher than his bankroll would normally allow, it is practically impossible. Vito, with his $3,000, should have been playing $8-$16. If he wanted to be really daring, he could have tried $10-$20. He would have been comfortable with the stakes, able to play aggressively without worrying about running out of money, and had a huge skill edge. He could have repaired his bankroll until he could comfortably move back up.

I have a great deal of respect for people who can play at a limit at which they are comfortable, especially if they are used to playing higher. It requires understanding that ego has little room in poker, and that it is a cash business. I have played $15-$30 with world champs who were down on their luck and realized that that was the game that gave them the best chance to win that day.

WHAT WE CAN LEARN? How can you avoid falling into a losing mindset? Well, you certainly can't avoid losing. All winning players, if they play long enough, will experience a significant losing streak.

First, keep good records. If you can look back on several months/years of positive results, you will realize that you are a winning player. Remember that you got there by playing a selective-aggressive game, and that if you have an edge, eventually the math will work in your favor and you will win.

Second, examine your game. Just because you won in the past does not mean you are not making errors. In every losing streak I have experienced, I came out the other end a better player. Reread some books, and review some hands with players you trust.

Make sure you are still comfortable with the stakes you are playing. If not, drop down. It is much easier to recover when you are not playing with scared money. Staying aggressive when you have an edge is critical to winning, and you cannot play that way if you are afraid of losing.

CONCLUSION: I am not saying it is easy. When you are riding the roller coaster down, it feels like you are plunging into the depths. Remember that there will be more ups and more downs to follow, but if you can keep your mind and heart on an even keel and continue to play well, you will start going back up again. I hope Vito does, too.

Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his web site at www.barrytanenbaum.com or e-mail him at [email protected].