Grading the NFL Coaches

We all know that football is "king" when it comes to sports betting. Each season for the past few years, I have taken a look at the NFL coaches, giving them a grade that includes many intangibles. I always like to caution, however, that while coaching can be an edge, it is not always the definitive edge in a collision game as complex as football, especially when there are so many players and a pointspread involved. But coaching can make a difference over the course of the season, and over several seasons.

In this column, we'll take a look at the NFC coaches, always with title prospects and pointspread performance in mind.

John Fox, Carolina, A. The undaunted Fox made strong playoff runs in 2003 and 2005, and he almost willed his crippled 2004 Panthers to the postseason, as well. He is a master of simplicity and execution to the degree that many of his opponents marvel. He is an amazing 17-3 (including playoff games) as an underdog the last three years, not to mention 2-0 in pick 'em games. And he's 6-1 versus the spread in seven career playoff games! (He's only 13-20 as an overall favorite the last three years, however.)

John Gruden, Tampa Bay, A-. Some don't rate him this high, but it's my belief that salary-cap attrition, key injuries, and poor kicking were mostly the cause of many losses the last three years after Gruden had maneuvered his team in position to win. The enthusiastic Gruden always has "a play in mind" come crunch time. Not all coaches do. His Bucs have gone "under" 64.6 percent of the time in the last three years.

Mike Holmgren, Seattle, B+. He's a terrific offensive tactician and quarterback (QB) developer who has done his best when not also serving in the role of general manager and when he can rely completely on a coordinator to handle his defense. In my opinion, however, Holmgren lost Super Bowls in Green Bay and Seattle partly because the opposing coaches (Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher) had their teams better motivated. He was 10-4 as a favorite last year (4-10 the previous year!).

Bill Parcells, Dallas, B+. As knowledgeable and thorough as they come, Parcells literally knows what it takes to win (amazingly, not all coaches do). But he's lost a bit of his luster by counting too much on former players who are obviously in decline (Vinny Testaverde, Keyshawn Johnson, Drew Bledsoe, and so on). He's 8-4 straight up and versus the spread in preseason with the Cowboys, including 6-0 and 5-1, respectively, in home exhibition games.

Tom Coughlin, N.Y. Giants, B+. He's on the verge of passing former mentor Parcells. He has developed the Giants into a top contender in two years, even while rebuilding the offensive line, breaking in young Eli Manning, and overcoming a defense ripped by injuries much of the time. He was 9-4 when favored last year. Like Parcells, Coughlin is not shy about winning in the preseason.

Joe Gibbs, Washington, B+. He won three Super Bowls with three different QBs in the previous era, but has been a bit too set in his ways (for example, he beat Tampa Bay in the playoffs despite only 120 yards of offense last season) since his return. He's as solid and as thorough as past and present rival Parcells. He promises a more varied attack in 2006.

Lovie Smith, Chicago, B+. He's a well-liked, defense-first, run-first coach who won the NFC North last year despite only minimal QB help, which is tough to do in the NFL. But in the playoffs, Carolina showed that Lovie must become better with his offense and more flexible with his beloved defense before having any NFC title dreams.

Andy Reid, Philadelphia, B. He might deserve a B+ merely for his straight NFC title-game appearances. But I prefer to dock him because he won only one of them, then mismanaged the end of the Philly Super Bowl against New England, and was so paralyzed by the Terrell Owens situation last year.

Jim Mora, JR., Atlanta, B. He appeared on the verge of moving up after his first season, and deserves credit for not requiring Michael Vick to stick in the pocket. His enthusiasm rubs off on his players. But he's only 10-10 as a favorite and must still prove he can develop Vick as a passer.

Dennis Green, Arizona, B-. He's never at a loss for words. But the loquacious Green has usually talked a better game than he's delivered. He too often loves his passing attack at the expense of defense and his ground game - a big negative in my book. Still, he has the Cards poised to ascend in the first year in their new stadium. He was only 2-8 as a dog last season.

Mike Nolan, San Francisco, C+. It's still mostly a wait-and-see situation regarding Nolan, who took over youthful, talent-poor S.F. last year to direct the 49er rebuilding project. He maintained his temperament while S.F. ended last in offense and last in defense, finishing 4-12 (which was four more wins than some people expected), but going 8-8 versus the spread.

INCOMPLETE. Ron Marinelli, Detroit; Mike McCarthy, Green Bay; Brad Childress, Minnesota; Sean Payton, New Orleans; Scott Linehan, St. Louis. All are rookie head coaches in the NFL; all were promoted from the ranks of NFL assistants. Marinelli (defensive line, assistant head coach with Tampa Bay the last 10 years) appears to be a hard-nosed type that is much needed in Detroit. McCarthy, the QB coach one year for the Packers (under Ray Rhodes), served as offensive coordinator for S.F. last year, and for New Orleans before that. Childress has been the titular "offensive coordinator" in Philly, where Andy Reid largely ran the offense himself. Payton, who often drew criticism while on Jim Fassel's offensive staff with the Giants, has been the QB coach and passing-game coordinator the last three years in Dallas, and Saints management is counting on him to provide some Parcells-style discipline in "The Big Easy." The 42-year-old Linehan was offensive coordinator for three years in Minnesota (where he was subsequently criticized by coach Mike Tice for too many second-down passes), and appears to have a better appreciation for power running and rugged defense after just one season of working under Miami's tough-minded Nick Saban.

Next time, the AFC coaches.

Chuck Sippl ([email protected]) is the senior editor of the Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly-compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the extraordinary 2006 Gold Sheet Football Annual on newsstands. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling the Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player magazine. You can check out the Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.