Another Amateur Wins the World Series of Poker Main Event?

Depending on when this issue goes to press, there's a good chance that we will already know who our 2006 world champion is, but I'm writing this before the start of the $10,000 main event. Of course, I hope that I somehow win the whole enchilada. Hey, I can dream! But realistically, I have to believe that we will crown yet another nonprofessional player as champion.And why not? Do we really think that a pro will weave his way through the 8,000 or so players who will be entered this year, when it hasn't happened in so long? I made very good money in 2004 and 2005 when betting the "field" to win the main event. My guess is that many others did too, because you'd be hard-pressed to find an online sports-betting site that will even take action on the "field" this year. They probably got burned each of the past four years, given that Carlos Mortensen in 2001 was the last winner who was listed as an individual betting interest.

But is that what the public wants? Truthfully, I don't know. Maybe there is some allure to having an unknown win the title, but my gut tells me there is some backlash against that trend. Top poker players have become household names, and having some of those names at the final table is probably a bigger attraction than watching nine unknowns.

Plus, the pros are the ones who have put the most time and effort into honing their skills. Undoubtedly, they would prefer to stand a better shot at becoming world champion than they currently have. How could that be accomplished? I think there are three ways that a pro would almost certainly emerge victorious from the main event, and in a sense, one of them has already happened:

1. Increase the buy-in and add new games
The $50,000 H.O.R.S.E. event, introduced this year, was a phenomenal idea, and if its winner is not recognized as the world champion, perhaps he or she should be. Anyone who is willing to put up $50,000 and can excel at five different forms of poker deserves more recognition, in my opinion, than a person who puts up $10,000 and has to play only no-limit hold'em. I sense that the H.O.R.S.E. event is being set up to become the new world championship of poker, and if that's the case, I'm all for it.

Again, I am writing this before the $50,000 event takes place, but just as I imagine that an amateur will win the $10,000 event, I have to believe that a professional player will take the title in the $50,000 event. And if not, the amateur who wins is probably one hell of a player, and we might need to look at other ways to crown a pro as champion.

2. Change the format of the main event to pot-limit
The difference between pot-limit and no-limit is subtle, yet substantial. Pot-limit prevents players from overusing the all-in move and forces them to play more hands past the flop. Both of those adjustments generally favor the more experienced player.

In far too many no-limit confrontations, two players are all in preflop, one has a pair, the other has overcards, and it is simply a coin flip to determine who wins a huge pot. In pot-limit, you'll still have pair versus overcards situations, but usually the participants will be forced to see a flop, and then it's not always the best hand that wins. Very often, a well-executed bluff will give the pot to the post-flop aggressor, and I think professional players are better equipped to make those types of moves.

Believe me, if you have a Doyle Brunson or a Phil Ivey sitting across from you, you would much rather settle the hand preflop. Once you give either of them the opportunity to see a flop, chances are they will make the correct play against you. Not only will you probably make no money on your big hands, you'll end up folding the best hand far more often than you could imagine.

3. Give players a one-time cash-out opportunity
I've thought of this as a variation to the typical tournament structure. It's a bit of a novelty, but bear with me. The main event would be played as normal until 10 percent of the field remains. Since everyone starts with $10,000 in chips, the average stack would be $100,000.

At that point, anyone with an above-average stack would be given the opportunity to cash in their chips for real money. Since each dollar in play represents its real-money equivalent, you could trade in $120,000 in tournament chips for $120,000 in real money. You would then exit the tournament, and the $120,000 would be taken out of the prize pool. After everyone who wishes to cash out does so, the prize pool would be readjusted and the tournament would continue, with all of the remaining players being "in the money."

The biggest downside is that the prize money for the remaining players would be lessened significantly. One of the reasons poker makes for great reality TV is the amounts of money at stake. Last year, Joe Hachem won $7.5 million, and this year's champion will probably win $10 million. If the cash-out option were instituted, I think first-place prize money could drop as low as $1 million or $2 million, maybe even lower. And, of course, the prize money for each subsequent place would also drop off drastically. Maybe that would cause some people to lose interest.

On the other hand, I like the wrinkle that it would provide. In many ways, it resembles Deal or No Deal. If you have more than $100,000 in chips, you are given a one-time offer equivalent to the size of your stack. Do you take it and quit, or do you take your chances in trying to become world champion? Deal … or no deal? I can't necessarily predict how such a tournament would play out, but I don't think too many amateur players could refuse that deal.

A guaranteed $100,000 payday would be tough to resist for everyone but the most hardcore gamblers. And since top-level professional poker players are some of the biggest gamblers in the world, they are the ones most likely to refuse such a deal, and therefore the ones most likely to reach the final table.

If we really want a pro to win it all, maybe the cash-out option is the way to go.

Matt Lessinger is the author of The Book of Bluffs: How to Bluff and Win at Poker, now available everywhere. To find other articles of Matt's, check out the Online Poker News newsletter at www.CardPlayer.com.