If you don't know what is meant by "key numbers" in football handicapping, you should. Because points tend to be "lumpy" in football - with the scoring involving bunches of more than one point at a time - there are some pointspreads that are more important than others, especially in games that figure to be close, or close to the pointspread.
For example, 3, 4, 6, and 7 are obviously key numbers, especially in the NFL. But there are other key numbers, such as 10, 11, 13, 14, and 17. Even 1 and 2 can be regarded as key numbers to a degree. There has been a plethora of research done on these pointspreads (and on 3½, 4½, 6½, and so on). Mathematicians and sports numbers crunchers can probably tell you the relative value of each key number down to several decimal places.
But that's not the main topic here.
The main point is to emphasize that key numbers usually mean more in the NFL, with its much discussed tendency toward parity in many areas, than they do in college football, where there are vast differences in the relative strengths of the programs. Moreover, there can be huge differences in the experience of teams in college football from year to year due to graduation, injuries, suspensions, academics, and the many strange occurrences on the college scene from year to year. Because of the sheer youth of the players, there is usually more emotion involved in college games.
With greater differences among the 119 teams in Division I-A football than among the 32 teams of the NFL, you are sure to get more wild and crazy games in college. And don't ever forget that college games are played largely by males 17 to 22 years old who are also (presumably) taking classes and trying to impress their families, buddies, and girlfriends. To say college players do some strange things in games is to say the least. Moreover, the rules in the college game promote "wilder" play, with things such as clock stoppages after each first down and two-point defensive scores on conversions, not to mention overtimes that have reached
seven extra periods at times! Suffice it to say, there is much more variance in the college game than in the pros - and by a long way.
This brings us back to our main point. If you are a shrewd handicapper and a careful "shopper" for pointspread value (and, by the way, you should be if you expect to win consistently in the long run), it is important to be cognizant of the value of key numbers in the NFL, and to be fairly aggressive in trying to be on the right side of them in your wagers by doing your "homework" early, knowing which teams you like that week, wagering early in the week, if necessary, and taking advantage of late line moves if they present themselves. It's usually good to avoid the Sunday betting rush, unless you're looking for a pointspread to hit or surpass a key number.
You generally have a little more leeway when it comes to college football, because key numbers mean a little less when there's greater variance in the game. Certainly, key numbers are still important, and it's better to have them than not to have them. But for my money, you shouldn't come off a college game that otherwise works out for you from a handicapping standpoint just because you're on the wrong side of a key number due to a
small (1 or 1½ points) line move. Yes, you might have lost a little of the wagering value you'd like, but chances are that you're still on the percentage side if you've handicapped the game well.
Fewer key numbers are going to come into play in your college wagers,
except when the power teams meet! And that's the key theme of this message:
When the college power teams (for example, LSU-Auburn, Michigan-Ohio State, and so on) play, key numbers become more important, and the contest should be analyzed a little more like an NFL game. And that's an important reminder at this time of the year, with many major rivalries, the conference championship games, and college bowls on tap.
Keep in mind, however, that many traditional rivalries these days do not pair power team against power team. With no disrespect intended, the Indiana-Purdue game of 2006 does not match rival powers. The Stanford-Cal "big game" has only one power this year. But the SEC title game usually has two, and the ACC and Big 12 championships might have two, as well.
Bowl games are a unique animal. All of the year's power teams are involved. But despite the growing abundance of postseason affairs, the bowls that actually pair power teams aren't very many. And they usually don't occur until late in the bowl season. Plus, bowl games involve a layoff of several weeks, a few days of wining and dining in the host city, and lots of chances for college kids to get into trouble. The motivation of some teams can be hard to put a finger on. And bowl games match teams from different leagues and they're usually unfamiliar with each other's style. So, the variance goes up once again.
Thus, you can give yourself a little key-number leeway in most bowls. But in the long run, it's still important to "own" the right side of a key number in bowls pairing closely matched teams. And it usually pays to get your holiday "shopping" done early, anyway! And always be on the lookout for those inevitable last-second pointspread "bargains" when oddmakers and the public combine to give you some extra points with a bowl underdog that you already liked or to chop the price on a favorite on your handicapping list.
Chuck Sippl ([email protected]) is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 49 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for The Gold Sheet on newsstands. Or, you can obtain a complimentary copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can check out The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.
