The early days of
Saturday Night Live featured a group of great comedians, many of whom went on to bigger things, who called themselves "The Not Ready for Prime Time Players." In the Mirage third-quarter episode of the
Travel Channel's Professional Poker Tour, I made a play that was severely criticized. I would have liked to have had a chance to defend myself on the air, but since my
Card Player column is the closest I can come to that, it will have to do. You be the judge.
Dan Harrington is to my right. I have played with him in many cash games at the old Mayfair in New York. I haven't played much against him in tournaments, since he usually lasts and I usually bite the dust rather quickly. He is a very thoughtful player. He never does anything really stupid, and is trickier than people think. (Also, his Hold'em Tournament books are great required reading for every serious player.) So far at this table, he has won two pots with the worst hand. Then, I won a very lucky hand against him, his J-J versus my 10-10, all in before the flop.
Given that history, just before the dinner break, we all ante $100. He is the small blind for $500 and I am the big blind for $1,000. He has about $35,000 and I have about $40,000. Everyone must be eager to go to the buffet, since it is folded around to us. He completes to $1,000. Presumably, he has a hand of average strength. He'd fold or try to steal with a very bad hand. He'd probably raise with a good one, although he might just call, trying to trap me into raising. I look down at an average hand myself, the Q
4
. I decide not to bluff-raise. I would be more inclined to bluff with a very weak hand, but here, I'd like to see a flop.
The flop is 9
5
2
. He bets about the size of the pot, $3,000. I have flopped a flush, which is almost certainly good. My goal is to get as much money in the pot as possible. I have a choice of calling or raising. A call will be best if he continues to bet at the pot with a hand that he would fold if I bet. A raise will work if it gets a call or, better still, a raise, especially from a hand that might check and fold on a future street. What do you think is the right play? The commentator, Mark Seif, stated that it was best to call. This is an attempt to trap Dan into continuing to bet or at least into calling my later bets on the turn or the river. I raised, and Dan folded. Clearly, I had made a bad choice, and Mark, like Dan, a former lawyer, wasted no time in making the case for the prosecution. The fact that I had made an unsuccessful choice doesn't mean I made the wrong choice.
Now, here is my defense:
1. If Dan has a big hand, like a set of deuces or two pair, either calling or raising will probably result in a huge pot. If I just call, a fourth spade might allow him to escape cheaply. Thus, there's a slight advantage to raising.
2. If he has a reasonable hand, something like the 10
9
or the A
2
, the raise has a good chance of provoking a reraise or locking him into the hand. (The TV commentators said he couldn't have an ace or king of spades, since he would have raised. They are almost certainly wrong there. I don't think he would usually raise with a bad ace, like A-2, and I'm sure he wouldn't raise with a bad king, like K-5,unless he was bluffing.) Raising may cause him to misread the situation; he may think I'd slow-play a big hand. Thus, there's a big advantageto raising.
3. If he has a real, but weak, hand, like the 6
5
, he may fold when I raise, but will probably check and fold on the turn unless he makes two pair or trips. Thus, there's a small edge to calling.
4. If he has absolutely nothing, he will fold when I raise. If I just call, he will probably check and then fold when I bet the turn, but thereis some chance that he will continue to bluff. Against a very aggressive player like Toto Leonidas or even Mark himself, I would probably call, expecting him to keep betting. I didn't think Dan was that likely to continue betting with nothing, and if he did, I would gain only one more small bet. Thus, there's a small advantage to calling.
I think that the gains from No. 1 and No. 2 outweigh those from No. 3 and No. 4. Is it clear? No. But I'm sure my play wasn't clearly wrong, and it was certainly not as bad as it looked on prime time TV. What is the verdict? Am I really a Not Ready for Prime Time Player?
Steve "Zee" Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on FullTilt, as one of its pros. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bar, Nice Guy Eddie's, on Houston and Avenue A in NewYork City.
