Betting the Turn From Out of Position - Part III

In Part I and Part II, we covered the cases in which you checked the flop and either called or check-raised. Now we'll consider the case that everyone checked the flop.



When everyone checks, you can usually assume that no one has much. There are exceptions, however, so let's talk about that first.



If there are one or two callers and a preflop raiser, beware if the raiser checks from late position. Perhaps he has little or nothing and is just giving up, but don't believe that unless you have seen him give up in this spot before. Any players who flop a big hand after raising check the flop almost reflexively. They hope that the other players either make enough to pay them off, think some second-best hand just became better, or try to bluff into a pot that nobody seems to want.



This is not necessarily the case if the preflop raiser has been called in several places. For example, if there were four limpers and the button raised with the 10 10, he may well check after everyone checks to him if the flop comes A Q 4.



For the remainder of this analysis, assume that the preflop raiser is not trapping, or nobody raised and everyone checked the flop. You are in early position and checked, so you are in one of these situations:



• You have nothing.

• You have something, but are not sure where you stand.

• You planned to check-raise.



You have nothing: Ironically, I will spend most of my time on this case.



When everyone checks the flop and you are first to act, you are in an excellent bluffing position on the turn. Nobody can be certain that you did not check the flop planning to check-raise, so the fact that you checked does not deny power. Your decision whether to bluff depends on the following:



1. The turn card

2. The number of opponents

3. Your opponents' tendencies

4. Pot size

5. Your image



1. The turn card: The more innocuous this card is, the more often you should bet at it. This is particularly true if the board pairs. This card should not scare you, since nobody bet the flop, but it will frighten your opponents. If they don't hold trips, they may be drawing nearly dead if you do.



Two players limp, and the small blind folds. You are in the big blind with the Q 9. The flop is 8 4 2. You check and the other two players check behind you. You should bet if the turn card is smaller than a 10. Tens and jacks are too dangerous to bet, since many players like to limp with those cards. Bet if a queen comes, but be prepared to give up quickly if you get raised. If a king or ace hits, you may get away with a bluff if your opponents do not limp with ace-rag.



This play works best when the pot is small. Even if your opponents suspect you are bluffing, they will generally not want to bother with such a small amount of money unless they have something very good themselves.



2. The number of opponents: It's hard to bluff multiple opponents. Everyone checking does not mean everyone missed entirely, so someone who flopped middle or bottom pair and just wants to see what you have may call you. Most bluffs into four or more opponents are semibluffs, so you need a good draw if you get called or raised.

You are in the small blind with the 8 5. Four players limp, you call, and the big blind checks. On a flop of 9 4 3, you check, as does everyone else. Bet if the turn card is a low spade or a 6, because these cards now give you a good draw. The combination of winning the pot now or getting called and making your hand makes this play worthwhile. Without a good draw, give up quietly and wait for a better spot.

Even if you pair the 8 or 5, betting is not that good a play. Check and see what develops. If there is a bet and call, give up. If everyone checks to the last player and he bets, check-raise unless he would never bluff.



3. Your opponents' tendencies: I include this because occasionally you will observe an opponent who loves to bluff at "orphan pots." If you are up to making a risky play, you are better off checking the turn in good bluffing situations and allowing him to bluff at it. Then, if everyone folds, check-raise.



You can't do this every time the situation develops with that player, or he will catch on. Do it once every two or three times to make a nice profit on his predictability.



Watch out for calling stations. They hate to bet, but love to call. A calling station may check top or middle pair on the flop, not because he is being tricky, but because he is being his usual cautious self. Of course, he also may have nothing, but the presence of this type of player makes bluffing less attractive.



4. Pot size: The bigger the pot, the higher the reward – but the more likely that someone will make a call. Tiny pots are frequently up for grabs because nobody wants to risk that much on them.



Take a look at the smallest possible pot. Everyone folds to the small blind, who calls. The big blind checks. Both players now check the flop. If the small blind bets the turn, he is getting even money: He must win half the time to break even. However, the big blind is now facing a pot-sized bet, and unless he was trapping, he cannot have that much. Even if he has a draw with overcards, he is not getting the right price if the small blind has any sort of hand. He will not have that good a hand very often, so the small blind's bet should win often enough to show a profit even though he is frequently bluffing. Of course, some of the times he bets, he will have at least a pair.



In large multiway pots, bluffing from out of position is virtually impossible.



5. Your image: The tighter your image, the easier the turn bluff becomes. If you are seen as a frequent bluffer, trying to win with a well-known bluff play becomes harder, as some players at the table will either be suspicious enough to call you with ace high or just try to make a counterplay and bluff-raise.



So much for the times that you had nothing and thought about bluffing. Let's finish this discussion by looking at the times you have a pair or better and everyone checked the flop.



You have something, but are not sure where you stand: You should have a much better idea now. You should bet unless the turn card is truly frightening. You may get curiosity calls from a player who suspects you of bluffing.



You planned to check-raise: Normally, if your hand is good enough to check-raise, you are happy to bet the turn. Be even more anxious to bet if the turn card brings likely draws.



However, some players will bet the turn with thin values once everyone checks the flop and continues to show weakness on the turn. For example, many preflop raisers who check the flop will almost always bet the turn for value if checked to again. They hope their play looks like they were trapping on the flop and everyone will fold, or that somehow their A-K or underpair is good since no one had enough to bet. If you check again, you may get to check-raise the turn with the best hand.



One other player to watch for is the one mentioned above who bets when he believes the pot is up for sale. Make sure that you let him bet. If other players are aware of his tendency, you may even get extra action before you spring your trap.



Next issue, we will start looking at turn play after you bet the flop from out of position.



Barry offers poker lessons tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses of the individual student. Please visit his web site at www.barrytanenbaum.com or e-mail him at [email protected].