Patterns in No-Limit Hold'em

If you know how many times in a row a player is willing to bluff, how likely a good hand is to follow a bluff, or a bluff a good hand, you have another weapon to add to your arsenal. You will find these patterns useful in tournaments and live play.



Online players don't have as many tells to watch for as brick-and-mortar (b&m) players do, so many already know to pay attention to patterns. But players who don't play online as often can learn.



One of the most noticeable patterns is what a player does after losing a crucial pot, particularly when the loss is to someone the player thinks had no business in the pot. Personally, I am rarely upset when someone beats me by defying the odds. I might be a little unhappy if I get bounced out of a tournament by someone who put all of his chips in the pot to hit a one- or two-outer, but even then I realize that if I have 90 percent the best of it, that means I have to lose 10 percent of the time. Others get emotionally involved, and you can exploit that.



Many players steam for one or more hands after losing a big pot in a bad beat. Of course, what one player considers a bad beat may differ radically from what another does. If you're a certain well-known player, you may consider it a personal affront to lose a 70-30 confrontation, while others consider a bad beat to be administered by a hand that can win only by hitting runner-runner. Whatever he believes, though, such a player often enters the very next hand, and frequently for a raise. In a tournament, you can try to isolate a player in this situation with a much more marginal hand than you might a non-tilting player. For example, you might reraise with A-10 here, whereas against typical players, you wouldn't even call. In a ring game, you can also play lesser holdings in such a situation, although more cautiously if the stacks are deep. You want to be cautious with big stacks waiting to act behind you, because, if they're at all observant, they're more likely to come in behind you, even if you reraise. Since this is the most noticeable pattern, you won't be the only one to pick up on it.



Other players act differently immediately after a bad beat. They feel shellshocked or particularly vulnerable, and come in the next hand only with a premium hand. Realize that the reaction differs from player to player.



Still others might steam after losing in a bad beat and come in the next hand with any two cards, but only for the minimum. Now, you need your powers of observation to know whether, in this situation, the player will fold for a raise or call almost anything. If a fold is likely, you can easily push back with almost any holding of your own. If the steamer might well call a big raise with almost anything, you can certainly cater to that tendency, but in this case only with a moderately good or better hand. Don't make the mistake of trying to push a stubborn steamer off a hand when your own cards are substandard.



Watch also for what players do after winning a big pot. Many always play the next hand. Again, be aware of the patterns. Some come in for a raise with anything in the hand after winning a big one. They want to "play the rush"; they feel invincible, particularly if they just administered a bad beat; they think their win intimidates the others; or they think they are surrounded by a powerful, winning force. Play your hand accordingly, remembering that it is almost always best to try to isolate what is likely to be a hand that's inferior to yours, both because most big starting hands play best against one opponent and because you want to act behind one lone opponent rather than have to make your decision before players behind you have acted.



Others always play the next hand after winning a big one, but only for the minimum. Be aware of their reactions to a raise, just as you were earlier with the player who is likely coming in steaming, and then try to either drive out, by raising with any two cards, the player who tries to get in cheaply but folds for a raise, or entice in, with the maximum raise you can get away with when you hold moderate to good cards, the player who feels bulletproof on the hand following a big win.



Another good pattern to keep track of is how many times in a row a player is capable of bluffing. Some players will keep bluffing as many times as they can get away with it, until they get caught, and then won't try again. How do you know such a player is bluffing? Often, he shows his cards when not called. Otherwise, you might not know, unless you have a good tell, which you can then use in combination with your knowledge of the player's tendencies. Some players bluff exactly once, and then not again for a long time. Some bluff twice in a row, and then stop, and some, three times, and so on.



One more good pattern to track is this: Some players can go just so long folding hand after hand. If they don't get a good hand within a certain period of time, the very first hand with which they finally enter is likely to be played as a bluff, or at least with substandard cards. This is a subtle tell, one that opponents often do not know. A player who seems otherwise to play solidly may fall into this category and not get action when he finally comes in. But you'll know better. Contrariwise, some players wait as long as it takes for the good cards to come. They might play substandard cards ordinarily, but if they haven't played a hand for a long time, that first hand is likely to be of premium quality.



Many more patterns exist. It's up to you, the winning poker player, to find them.



Michael Wiesenberg's The Ultimate Casino Guide, published by Sourcebooks, is available at fine bookstores and at Amazon.com and other online book purveyors. Send encomia, expostulations, and exhortations to [email protected].