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World Poker Tour Bellagio 2006 - Final Table

Making a call based strictly on the math

by Daniel Negreanu |  Published: Mar 28, 2007

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I was in prime position to break a lot of records with this final-table appearance. If I won this tournament, I'd tie Gus Hansen with three World Poker Tour wins, and I'd also become the only player to win the same WPT event twice. It was a little extra motivation to play well and make a good run at it.

Rather quickly, I was able to extend my chip lead a little bit after picking up a few small pots. At the same time, my biggest threat based on chip count, Mads Andersen, was taking a beating and fell back to the pack a bit.

I had no plans of playing a large pot unnecessarily, as my strategy of playing small-bet poker had worked well so far, and this final table was perfect for that strategy. I played one key hand at the final table that created quite a buzz, but after I break it down for you, I think you'll see that it really wasn't all that much of a big deal.

Ed Jordan made it $225,000 to go from under the gun, and Mads Andersen reraised from the cutoff seat to $650,000. I looked down at the Aclub Kheart, which is normally a very sticky situation after a raise and a reraise. However, I had a few things going for me, in that I was on the button and Mads had shown a propensity to reraise with a wide variety of hands. I called, as did Ed.

The flop came Qheart Qclub 10heart. Both Ed and Mads checked to me, so I thought I would take the free card, as either player easily could have been setting a trap for me.

The turn card was the 4heart, putting three hearts out there. Rather quickly, Ed announced that he was moving all in. Mads folded, and it was up to me. I asked for a chip count, since even if I thought Ed had me beat, it still might make sense to call if the pot odds were right.

Ed had $1,045,000. Honestly, I thought I was beat. I mean, for goodness sake, all I had was a measly ace high, albeit the best ace high. I tried to figure out what Ed could have. The most obvious hand was trip queens with any of the following hands: A-Q, K-Q, Q-J. Or, he possibly could have the Aheart with a hand like A-K or A-J.


One hand I ruled out completely, based on a tell I'd picked up, was that he was already made with a full house. I just didn't think he'd play 10-10 or Q-10 like that.

The next step was to work out the math. There was already about $2 million in the pot, so I was getting roughly 3-1 on my money. Unless he was full already, that was a good enough price to call against the range of hands he could have. Who knows, maybe I even had the best hand!

I started talking to him a little bit, trying to get something from him. "You've got the queen, I guess. Oh man, I know you've got the queen," I said. The truth is, I didn't know anything of the sort. I had no idea as to what he really had, and I finally made the call based strictly on the math.

Ed turned up his hand - the 8spade 7spade! It was an outright stone-cold bluff attempt. Now, this was no "great read" on my part. I never really thought he was making a totally random play, although I had seen him make a play like that on day two.

Anyway, I could hear Mike Sexton in the background saying, "What a great call!" The crowd seemed impressed with the call, and later after reading through the Internet buzz, it seemed like the call got a lot of attention.

I guess I was a little shocked at it all. It was a no-brainer call, really, and it had nothing to do with skill on my part. It had to do solely with the fact that I was getting 3-1 odds and thought I could win with a jack, a heart, or maybe even an ace or a king. That's just too many outs to fold for a million-dollar bet in that situation.

I do have to say that I appreciated the praise for the call, but I don't think I deserved it one bit. It was really no big deal at all.

Things were moving along smoothly in the tournament until I got down to threehanded. I ended up making a few silly mistakes, and I'm embarrassed to tell you the reason why. With as many final tables as I've played, you'd think I'd be able to count my own chips! I was having loads of trouble figuring out how many big blinds I had and how many my opponents had. That's pretty crucial information at that stage of the tournament, and I made a $900,000 call in a situation in which I thought the stacks were much deeper than they were. It was a very costly mistake - but hey, it happens.

I was ecstatic about my play leading up to the final table, and frankly, that's really all that matters. I'm fully aware that at final tables, the luck factor increases immensely and it's more difficult to control your own destiny, and I can live with that. Joe Hachem, who I thought played fabulously throughout the entire tournament, went on to win it. It was a much deserved victory for an all-around nice guy. spade

You can read Daniel's blog and play poker with him at www.fullcontactpoker.com.