The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
- Mark Twain
I have written before that poker - like real estate, the stock market, and other economic activities - is cyclical. The game wanes and blooms. People and their money come and go in response to many external factors. From 2003 to 2005, the game, because of television and the Internet, grew as it never had before. I suspect that more money has been won and lost in 21st-century poker games than in the entire previous history of the game! But, like high-tech stocks and residential real estate, such growth could not go on unimpeded ad infinitum.
Everybody who plays on the Internet knows that the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (UIGEA) has had a negative impact on the game. Major players like PartyPoker have left the U.S. market, e-wallets like NETELLER and Firepay have stopped servicing U.S. poker players. Barriers to ease of transactions and concerns about safety of money and about legality have sent many recreational players to the sidelines. People are moaning and wailing that the game, especially the Internet game, is dead.
Well, poker is no more dead than real estate or high-tech stocks. Like those industries, it is just at a point in a cycle.
The game has, however, changed - but change was inevitable. The UIGEA accelerated that change and exacerbated it, but change was coming anyway. Even before the October passage of the UIGEA, some of the money in I-poker was drying up. Many casual players checking out the game got their clocks cleaned, and either went broke or quit. Players with marginal skills who once had big positive edge against the field were beginning to find themselves in tougher fields, performing poorly and blaming bad luck, not understanding the economic realities of the situation. The number of players per flop was trending down, as was average pot size. And people were learning; many beginners who came to the I-game without skills just got better. They were not necessarily good, but better. The game was getting tougher in many ways before the UIGEA.
But these were slow trends. The marketplace could, did, and would have continued to adapt to them. Without the federal intervention, the game would have shrunk some, plateaued, then settled into an oscillating wave of expansion and contraction, first trending downward off the peak, then eventually trending back up, as it always has.
Do you think the biggest part of the poker world has taken a hit? Wrong! I-poker never was the biggest part of poker. Surveys by the American Gaming Association, the lobbying group for the casino industry, indicate that in both 2004 and 2005, some 50 million Americans played poker. The studies also showed that 70 percent to 80 percent of poker players played in private games, far more than have ever played in brick-and-mortar cardrooms or on the Internet. The biggest part of poker is and always has been home poker. And it's going strong! That's why my writing partner John Bond and I wrote our newest book,
The Home Poker Handbook.
In the foreword to our book, Daniel "Kid Poker" Negreanu says, "Almost every successful poker player you've ever heard of got started in a private game." And he's right. Home poker has always been the farm league for the public game, the place where people develop their interest and skills, and get comfortable with the game. There will always be home poker. And as long as there is home poker, players will find their way to public poker - cardrooms and I-poker games.
Many sites continue to take American players, and new payment alternatives continue to become available. CardPlayer.com provides updated information daily. The situation changes daily, and not all of the news is bad, by any means.
Spokesmen for the same AGA that promulgated the surveys mentioned above have said there is no hope of poker carving out an exception to the UIGEA and other gambling regulation. You need to understand that the AGA is the lobbying arm of the brick-and-mortar casino industry, which hopes to use the popularity of poker to widen government acceptance of gambling in general. They very much have a vested interest in keeping poker tied to other forms of gambling, and resist efforts to separate them. I have written often about how poker differs from other forms of gambling, and that the game's best interest is served by using those distinctions to separate itself from gambling in general when it comes to dealing with the government.
Some good stuff is happening out there as the market adjusts to the UIGEA. Many new companies are entering the e-wallet void left by NETELLER's departure from the market. Wyoming, one of the most conservative states, recently passed a law specifically authorizing poker in bars. Legislators in Florida, which has legislatively distinguished poker from other forms of gambling, are considering raising the $2 limit on public games there. There's activity in other state legislatures, as well. And the Poker Players Alliance (www.pokerplayersalliance.com) is organizing grass-roots efforts to influence the government about our game.
In the conclusion to
Home Poker Handbook, we write: "The home poker game has been a staple of our way of life for some 60 years or more. It is as much a fixture in American homes as kitchen tables and bottled beer. Like kitchen tables and bottled beer, which may evolve into breakfast counters and aluminum cans, or perhaps in the future to some other form, different but in essence the same, so too will home poker evolve. The game will assuredly change, yet at its essence, remain the same. As long as people gather with friends and family, there will be card games, and where there are card games, there will be poker." And as long as people continue to play, they will find their way to public games - live games and Internet games.
Yes, our game has changed. Yes, we are in a momentary period of contraction. But, we are certain to grow from here. And paraphrasing Mark Twain - the reports of our game's death have been greatly exaggerated!
Roy Cooke has played more than 60,000 hours of pro poker and has been part of the I-poker industry since its beginnings. His longtime collaborator, John Bond, is a freelance writer in South Florida. Their books are available at www.conjel.com/cooke.
