The heart of no-limit hold'em is post-flop play. The probing raise on the flop, the all-in semibluff on the turn, and the check-raise bluff on the river are the kinds of plays that make a good deep-stack player great. Anyone can learn to shove in preflop when his stack size gets to 10 big blinds or less. Most people can even learn to reraise all in with a stack size of less than 30 big blinds. In fact, both of these strategies are very effective, and important in many late-game tournament situations. But if both players have a couple hundred big blinds in front of them, that's what separates the players from the gamblers.
My college girlfriend watched a televised poker show with me once, and after a few minutes, she asked, "Why do they go all in so much?" I was a beginner at the time, and didn't have a ready answer for her. After all, moving all of one's chips into the center renders further information gathering useless, makes position irrelevant, and, of course, risks the maximum possible loss on any given hand. So, why do players move all in so often? Well, actually, the above drawbacks aside, going all in is often far and away the best play, as good players know. The all-in move does take away your options, but it takes away your opponent's options, as well. He can no longer bluff, call for implied odds, call while hoping to bluff later, or call while hoping to elicit a tell. The only thing he can do is call if he'll show down the best hand often enough based on the pot odds. With relatively short chip stacks, an all-in wager should be considered at almost every opportunity.
When the pot has $1,000 in it, and both players have $20,000, or even $10,000, in front of them, the situation is entirely different. Going all in immediately is not a viable option, as it risks too much to win too little. You and your opponent have enough chips that you'll want to make use of all of your poker skills, and not just the all-in move. You'll virtually never see Daniel Negreanu or Phil Ivey moving all in for 10 times the size of the pot. Their strengths lie in studying their opponents' moves, using their position, and gaining as much information as possible before committing to a course of action.
So, while an all-in move should be common with short stacks, it should be rare with deep stacks. Yet, I see the overbet all in all the time. What line of thinking causes this to happen? An ill-advised all in often comes from a fear of post-flop play, combined with an unwillingness to let go of big pairs. I played a no-limit hold'em tournament recently in which I had raised preflop with the 6
5
, got called in one spot, and then had the big blind put in a very small reraise. I called, as did the third player, and we took the flop threehanded. It came down 7-6-5 offsuit, and before I could figure out how I was going to get the big blind, with a probable overpair, to commit to his hand, he moved all in for almost twice the size of the pot. I called, of course, cracked his kings, and was told how bad a player I was.
I refer to bets like the one this big blind made as "panic bets." (Thanks to my friend Oz for suggesting the name.) Even some experienced players make panic bets, when deep down, they know they shouldn't. They think to themselves, "I don't want to get outplayed with my good-but-vulnerable hand, so I'm just going to move in." It's a tempting line of thought, and most times, the thinking will "work," in the sense that the opponent will fold. But when a panic bet gets called, it's typically a disaster that more than makes up for all the times it works. People who use the phrase "all in works every time but one" usually underestimate the power of the all-in play; but with deep stacks, that phrase is actually useful. There is always an alternative to making a panic bet, and that is making a much smaller bet. If you want action with your hand, you should want to make the smaller bet. And if you're beat, you certainly want to bet smaller and possibly give yourself a chance to find out what's going on.
There are only a few times when it makes sense to overbet the pot after the flop in no-limit hold'em. Actually, there is only one time when it makes sense in a normal context, and that is when there are draws on the flop and you can reasonably threaten to have a big one. For example, on a board of 7-6-2 with two hearts, it's perfectly reasonable to move in for two and a half or three times the pot size with the 9
8
. In the absolute worst case, you'll still have a 40 percent chance of winning the hand, so you can't get trapped by someone who will call only with the nuts. That said, if you do make these overbets with big draws, it's important to also make them with big hands (and I don't mean one big overpair), so that your opponents don't start calling you too often.
The second situation in which an overbet could be correct is a fluky one, and might not count, but it happened to me recently and I thought I'd share it. I was playing a no-limit hold'em rebuy tournament, and we were on the second-to-last hand before the rebuy period ended. Players were allowed to rebuy when they had $1,500 in chips or less. After seeing the flop, I had $1,915 in my stack, and there were five or six players in the hand. The flop came ace high and everyone checked to me. There was $360 in the pot, and I had A-5. I decided to overbet the pot, and bet $415. You might notice that this bet left me with exactly $1,500, an amount that allowed me to rebuy. This bet is almost a freeroll for me. If I pick up the pot, I'm happy because I've increased my equity in the tournament by a decent amount. If I end up folding, I can buy another $1,500 in chips, and because I believe I have an edge over the field, I believe those chips have value to me - possibly enough to make up the $415 I had to bet in order to get them. And, of course, I could get called and still win the pot. In a way, it was a win-win-win situation. The sad ending is that everyone folded except the player to my immediate right, who check-raised me. I decided to fold and rebuy, and then proceeded not to cash in the event. I still think it was a fun little play, and the point is, my bet was far from being a panic bet.
I've seen players in big tournaments overbet the pot with their A-A after the flush card comes in, with no outs against that flush. I've seen players in big tournaments move all in preflop for 20 times an opponent's raise with medium-strength pairs. I've seen players
in fairly big cash games move in for many times the pot size with just a measly overpair, when they had to be toast if they were called. Don't panic. Don't make plays like these. Trust yourself to make good decisions on later streets, even if you're not yet an experienced deep-stack player. Sooner or later, that trust in yourself, combined with a constant desire to improve, will translate to success at the table.
Matt Matros is the author of The Making of a Poker Player, which is available online at www.CardPlayer.com.
