Not much is likely to change at the top of the English Premiership this season, but there is still plenty for punters to get excited about.
The "Phoney War" was, as the name suggests, not so much a war, but a sustained period of gossip, rumour, and speculation. After Britain declared war on Germany in the events that triggered World War II, there were a number of months when nothing happened. Both sides watched in anticipation of developments that materialised only months later.
Like two heavyweights in the opening stages of a Vegas showdown - both shaping as if they will launch the first attack, when in fact they are constantly gathering information about their opponent.
That's what the summer is like for football fans. Conflict is suspended for a couple of months, so the supporter must be satisfied with rumour and conjecture about the impending battles. Claim gets followed by counterclaim. Sightings of Elvis sipping Earl Grey tea on the French Rivera go down as people turn their attention to spotting transfer targets that may be heading for new destinations.
This summer has lived up to expectations, with some surprising, some expected, and some downright strange moves. With the new season only days away, where do we stand?
Two-Horse Race
Apologies in advance, but the Premiership title is a two-horse contest again. Manchester United and Chelsea slugged it out over a thrilling few months toward the end of the 2006-2007 season, and it proved how far ahead of the chasing pack they are.
Jose Mourinho has been unspectacular in the transfer market, but the acquisition of Tal Ben Haim provides the defensive cover that they sorely lacked during the middle part of the season when Terry and Carvalho suffered from various ailments.
Despite a reluctance from Abramovich to splash the cash, Chelsea has made some nice moves during the close season, with Claudio Pizarro and Steve Sidwell joining Ben Haim at the club on free transfers. It is a stronger squad this term.
United has assumed the role of the big spenders. Despite missing Ferdinand and Vidic for crucial parts of the Premiership run-in, the general consensus was that they were a touch fortunate with their injuries last term. Carrick, Rooney, Scholes, and, most importantly, Cristiano Ronaldo were available for selection for most of the season, and the signings that Sir Alex Ferguson has made during the summer suggest that he is aware that his squad lacks depth.
The Pack
Wigan - a team that avoided relegation by virtue of goal difference - had an away record of five wins, four draws, 10 losses, and 19 points last season. That's the worrying stat for third-place Liverpool. Last season, the Reds' away record was only three points better than the relegation dodgers with six wins, four draws, and nine defeats.
Despite the arrival of some astute Rafa Benitez purchases, it's difficult to see this record improving to the extent that they can challenge the top two. The home form is almost flawless, but unless there is a radical improvement away from Anfield, the league will be beyond them for another year.
After spending most of 2007 without Thierry Henry, his departure isn't a disaster for Arsenal; £16 million for an increasingly injury-prone, soon-to-be 30-year-old isn't the worst of deals. If there was any bonus from the timing of Henry's injuries last season, it was that it gave the players the opportunity to play with a team that didn't include its talisman.
Thus, it begins the 2007-2008 season further along the path of rejuvenation than it otherwise would have. The team has adapted to life without Henry.
Newcastle fans are often labelled as deluded with the sense of the club's importance. Every season the fans whip themselves into a frenzy about a big-name signing that will miraculously transform the club from mid-table mediocrity to genuine title challengers, and every season they end up frustrated.
But Sam Allardyce is the man to change this. There was a degree of opposition to his appointment among the Toon Army, but the reality is that Allardyce is exactly the manager the Magpies need. Calling him a "low budget Fabio Capello" may seem derogatory, but in fact it is a compliment of the highest order.
Substance Over Style
Allardyce and Capello may not be people who adhere to the doctrine of "Total Football," but they get results. After somehow guiding Real Madrid to its first league title in four years, Capello was sacked for "winning ugly." Likewise, Allardyce has been criticised for his skill in generating substance rather than style.
To emphasise this point, in its league meetings with Arsenal since returning to the Premiership, Bolton has accrued 14 points compared to the 17 points of the Gunners, which is widely feted as the team that plays the most attractive football in the world.
With a group of limited players, Allardyce used them in a manner that got the best out of their abilities and turned Bolton from relegation battlers into contenders for the Champions League places. With more skill to work with, don't be surprised to see a Newcastle team winning whilst looking good.
Big Sam will bring defensive stability. Within his first few weeks at the helm, he offloaded the calamity that is Titus Bramble. For too long, the Newcastle defence has been a laughing stock, and had it not been for the heroics of Shay Given, the club may have flirted with relegation more than it has.
Before getting Bolton promoted to the Premiership, Allardyce turned it into a team that conceded on average just 1.03 goals per game for two first-division seasons. In its first season in the top division, this understandably jumped to 1.63 goals conceded, but he got things under control by reducing that figure to 1.34 the following year.
Since then, the figure has hovered around the 1.4-goals-per-match mark, and although that may not seem like a huge difference, over the course of a season, it is the reason why the Trotters have been edging up the table in recent years.
Calling the Toon
Shrewd dealings in the transfer market were a hallmark of Allardyce's time at Bolton. Few people ever would have thought that the legendary Fernando Hierro would trade the luxury of semi-retirement in Qatar for a Manchester suburb, but Allardyce convinced him to do it and was rewarded with a season of useful performances from a great player at the end of his career.
Allardyce is well-connected when it comes to transfers, and with increased resources at his disposal, he should attract a higher calibre of player to Tyneside. Even during the good times at the Reebok Stadium, the club frequently reported losses of £3 million-£6 million per year. Attendances averaged 25,000, and whilst this is respectable for a club of its size, it tied his hands financially.
The Magpies have an average attendance that is more than double this, and the club's turnover reflects that. Newcastle also frequently reports substantial losses, but when you have a stadium that is filled with more than 50,000 Geordies, the banks tend to be a bit more forgiving. It's the sad reality of modern football, but having money and someone to spend it wisely is crucial in developing a club. Expect Allardyce to deliver.
Without the Big Four
Based on all we know about Allardyce and Newcastle, where is the money to be made? Backing them to break into the top four is a bit fanciful, so backing them to "win the Premiership without the big four" at odds of around 7/1 could be the way to go. This takes Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal out of the equation.
The main rivals for this market will be Tottenham and Everton, which doesn't sound all that daunting. Spurs conceded too many goals last season for a team aspiring to play in the Champions League, and relied too much on the brilliance of Berbatov.
There is every chance they will continue to leak goals at the back, and the goals may not flow as freely up front, either. Likewise, you can pick holes in Everton's credentials. It can field a strong first 11, but the squad lacks depth. A couple of injuries to key players could seriously dent its push for a European place.
Big Hopes
Related to potential improvement for Newcastle could well be a downturn in the fortunes of Bolton under the stewardship of Sammy Lee. As we saw with Alan Curbishley at Charlton, the void left by managers who have essentially built the club from lower levels is almost impossible to fill, regardless of how talented the incoming coach is.
To use the cliché, you don't know what you've got till it's gone, and Allardyce's true worth will become apparent only when Bolton struggles. Sammy Lee is a nice man and a useful coach, but he is not a manager. Combined with this is the absence of Tal Ben Haim. It's a huge loss to the Trotters, and although they finished last season in seventh position, the 7/1 for them to be relegated is worth looking at.
Extremely Keane
In an era when young managers are quickly built up, only to be knocked down once things turn sour - it was only a matter of months ago that Stuart Pearce was considered a serious contender for the position of England manager - you have to be wary of singing the praises of Roy Keane too vociferously. But there was a lot to like about how Keane got Sunderland promoted to the Premiership. Niall Quinn promised the fans a "world-class manager," but what he delivered was a world-class player who was turning his attention to management. Fortunately, it looks to have paid dividends.
Not losing sight of the fact that it was only one season, Keane did have a lot of problems to contend with in his maiden management position. He inherited a team that was low on confidence after a woeful start to the season. He made some good moves in the transfer market without spending vast sums of money.
His connections within the game ensured that the club got valuable experience in the form of Dwight Yorke and Graham Kavanagh, while the young talent came in the form of Liam Miller and Anthony Stokes. There was even talk of Paul Scholes joining, and although it may not happen for a couple of years, Keane's status in the game will ensure that high-class players will be willing to work with him when they approach the end of their careers.
Most impressive of all was the discipline that Keane brought to the squad - although it's unsurprising considering that he learned his trade from Brian Clough and Sir Alex Ferguson. On Dec. 7, 2006, the Sun broke a news story that three Sunderland players had filmed themselves having an orgy with a 16-year-old girl.
The players involved were Ben Alnwick, Liam Lawrence, and Chris Brown - all of whom were an important part of his squad. Despite the fact that it could have hurt his team in the short term, Keane took the view that this behaviour was unacceptable. A little over a month later, all three players had been shipped out. It was a brave decision. Many experienced managers have turned a convenient blind eye when their players got involved in such antics, and this sent out a powerful signal regarding what Roy Keane, manager, is all about. The fact that it had little impact on their promotional campaign is testament to Keane's skills.
Smells Like Team Spirit
Anyone who watched Sunderland last term would find it hard not to be impressed. Its team spirit was remarkable. It's that team spirit that will ensure it stays up. Often, a newly promoted team will lose its first few games in the new league and lose all confidence. That won't happen at Sunderland. Keane won't let it. The likes of Derby, Wigan, Man City, and Fulham look weaker than the Black Cats, and laying Sunderland at 4/1 to be relegated on the exchanges looks to be a safe bet. The quote of 5/2 for Sunderland to break into the top 10 looks a bit skinny. Last season, Blackburn finished 10th with 52 points, and as good as Sunderland will be, that is asking a bit too much.
