Watching a horse and jockey stride toward an open ditch, both risking life and limb as they leap spectacularly through the air with great precision toward safety on the other side, is a truly breathtaking experience.
There is something very special about watching a horse skillfully jump fences at 40 mph that sets National Hunt racing apart from the more glamorous Flat season. It begs the question of why a flat jockey gets better paid for a five-furlong sprint than a national hunt jockey does for pushing an unwilling mount for three miles through the mud in the depths of a cold, wet, and bitter winter.
The National Hunt season is upon us, and we can take the time to look ahead and savour the treats that are in store over the coming months. It's not often that one sets about looking ahead by looking to the past, but in the case of National Hunt racing, it is important. Many of the leading stars from last season will again, fitness and health permitting, take centre stage over the coming months. Likewise, we will expect to see leading trainers and jockeys Paul Nicholls, David Pipe, Jonjo O'Neill, Tony McCoy, Ruby Walsh, and Timmy Murphy feature prominently in the results sections of the daily newspapers.
The season really is a case of all roads leading to Cheltenham. However, this is just four days of the year, and otherwise there is a very exciting programme of racing to look forward to, aided in no small part by the Order of Merit.
Star-quality handicaps complimented by a selection of pattern races make up the bulk of the regular racing programme over the winter months.
The Contenders
Kauto Star - A horse in a million, having swept the boards at the top level, from the minimum distance of two miles right up to the true test of the Cheltenham Gold Cup's three-and-a-quarter-mile trip. In the care of champion trainer Paul Nicholls, he is certain to be the leading light again over the coming season, and should not be opposed in any of his engagements.
Voy Por Ustedees - Previously an outstanding novice, he is now the Champion Chaser over the minimum trip of two miles. Shrewdly handled by Alan King and in the absence of any real star in last year's novice chase ranks, he again looks to be the one they have to beat.
Ingles Drever - Now a dual staying champion hurdler, he relishes a true test of stamina. Contenders for his crown appear to be scarce, and he again looks likely to take the leading rank in his specialist sphere again.
Nickname - Formerly a top hurdler in France, this horse rates as unbeatable on soft or heavy ground in Ireland over the winter months. The ground has generally gone too quick when Cheltenham comes around, but that won't stop him from being the leading chaser on softer ground.
Denman - The leading staying novice chaser last season, he will provide his trainer Paul Nicholls a welcome headache over the coming months as he maps out a racing programme that will keep him apart from the stable's other heavyweight, Kauto Star. The horse looks to be in ascendancy, and while he has a bit to go to trouble his stablemate, it shouldn't detract from him being a class stayer over the coming months.
My Way De Solzen - A former stayers hurdle winner and most recently an impressive winner of the Arkle, this horse jumps with sublime precision and should be followed closely in his second season over fences.
Katchit - Generally speaking, punters should tread carefully with the winners of the Triumph Hurdle in their second season over hurdles, but this horse has shown a distinct liking for Cheltenham. He carried all before him in his juvenile career, and there is nothing to indicate that he won't progress.
Punters Artillery
No punter should live and die by the stats book, but one who does not use this readily available information source is failing to use some key artillery at his disposal.
Trainer Form - Of paramount importance is the current health of the stable when choosing whether or not to have a bet on any particular horse. Just like a poker player running hot or cold, stables also exhibit similar trends. A cursory glance at how the stable's recent runners have performed can often provide the affirmation to have a bet.
Horses for Courses - It's cliché because it's true! Some horses do reserve their best for specific courses. This can often be an indicator of other factors, such as direction and track type. Does a horse prefer to go left-handed or right? Does he like a flat track or an undulating track? Does he enjoy a course with a stiff uphill finish? These are very basic factors that many unwittingly ignore, but their importance should not be underestimated. Horses regularly display their best in their preferred conditions. Many courses have similar characteristics, and trends in a horse's performance in relation to preferred track type may be identified with some analysis.
How Long - The length of time between races is yet another factor to consider. How have horses performed when returning to the track after X number of days since their last run? Some horses are best when fresh, and others need a couple of runs to set them straight. Early in the season, this knowledge can be a useful tool in horse selection.
That Time of Year - It may seem curious that horses regularly perform better at different times of the year. While it is difficult to identify why - possibly a combination of factors, such as weather and prevailing ground conditions - any trend indicating in which part of the season a horse has tended to run his best race should be noted.
Ground for Concern - Generally speaking, we expect that the ground - or going, as it is referred to in the industry - during the winter months will be rain-softened, but within that category are many ground types and conditions that vary from good to exceptionally heavy and sticky. Horses react to the going conditions differently. While it is easy to appreciate that a horse may prefer soft ground, it is important to also understand the differences across the spectrum of ground conditions, and how a selection is likely to react to the ground on any given day.
Going the Distance - National Hunt races, with the exception of juvenile bumpers, are run over distances ranging from two miles to four-and-a-half miles. It is rare to have a horse that's dynamic enough to perform at its best over multiple distances, so one always should be sure that he is backing a horse that is racing over its preferred distance. If it is not its preferred distance, there should be sufficient mitigating factors for placing a bet, such as very strong indicators that a horse will appreciate a step-up in trip.
History Repeating - For various reasons best known to the trainers themselves, they like to target specific races, meetings, or racecourses throughout the season. Punters should make themselves aware of trainers' statistics at courses, and pay particular attention to trainers with exceptionally high strike rates at their favoured tracks. This does not translate to the trainer with the largest number of runners at a racecourse, but the trainer with the highest number of winners to runners.
Race Type - Races are categorised as Steeplechases, Hurdle races, and National Hunt Flat races, or Bumpers, as they are often known. It is important to note a trainer's record in certain types of races, as some trainers are more renowned for their steeplechasers than their bumper performers, so on that basis, a punter can often strike a line through runners in specific races.
Any Chance of a Ride? - The high-profile jockeys are retained by the bigger stables to ride pretty much all of the runners from that stable. However, when a jockey's stable does not have a runner in the race, he is free to ride a horse for whomever he chooses. Often, some high-profile jockeys strike up a profitable relationship for some smaller yards. On this basis, when a jockey like Tony McCoy rides a horse from a stable with only a handful of inmates, one should pay attention. Even more attention should be paid to a jockey taking a mount for an outside stable in a race in which his retained stable has a runner.
Winner, winner! Where's my dinner? - Jockeys impose strict diets on themselves to ensure that they can meet their daily weight requirements. They have a minimum weight at which they can ride regularly; this is a function of their diet and exercise routine rather than a restriction imposed by the governing bodies. Occasionally, a jockey will go the extra mile to ride at a weight that's 2 or 3 pounds below his comfortable minimum. This is a clear indication that a horse is strongly fancied for victory. When a jockey takes drastic measures to reduce his weight for a specific race, punters should take note.
