When you are at the table facing down opponents, decisions are about how to play them. Have fundamental card sense and strategy understanding, know how your opponents are thinking and react to it effectively, and you'll whup those who can recite the odds but are ineffective at reading how their opponents think!
I was playing in a 10-handed $30-$60 limit hold'em game at Bellagio. A very poor-playing opponent limped in from up front, the player between us folded, and it was up to me, holding the K
J
, which is quite marginal in such early position. However, against bad-playing opponents, there's more edge. Bad players make more mistakes, adding value to your game. I limped in behind the poor player. Three players limped in behind me. The small blind, a player who I think plays great, tossed in a chip. The big blind knuckled, and we took the flop off sevenhanded.
The flop came J
6
3
, giving me top pair with a king kicker. Mr. Great led into the field and was raised by Poor Player, whose style was such that he might hold a wide range of hands, most of which I could beat. I three-bet, folding the three players behind me, but Mr. Great four-bet. Poor Player called, and it was up to me.
Mr. Great plays solidly but deceptively. I thought the range of hands he could hold in this situation varied widely, from top pair, good kicker to a flush draw. I didn't particularly like my hand, but I knew it could beat some of his holdings. The pot had gotten pretty big with two streets to go - and I didn't want to make a large mistake by folding a winner. I tossed $30 into the pot.
The turn card was the 6
. Mr. Great led into the pot again. Poor Player called. I was pretty certain I had Poor Player beat. I thought again about Mr. Great's possible holdings; one mistake that many otherwise good players make is to put their opponents on a hand and marry that idea! The 6 on the turn reduced his chances of having flopped a set of sixes. He could have called one chip with any two cards preflop, and might even have J-6, 6-3, or J-3. I thought it unlikely that he held an overpair or even J-J, as he hadn't raised preflop. He'd have called preflop with any suited hand, making a flush draw quite possible.
I knew I had to pay off the hand. The pot was too big and my opponent too tricky. I ran through my creative thoughts. Mr. Great reads hands well. I thought about what he would think I held if I raised. I had limped preflop, so I knew he wouldn't think I held an overpair. I didn't think he would think I would raise the turn with just a jack in that spot. I would limp with 3-3, and he would know that. If he put me on 3-3, would he fold a flush draw? He trusts his judgments and acts on them! I was almost certain that I had Poor Player beat. I was most likely going to pay off two bets anyway, so the expectation cost of raising was lowered.
I raised, planning on checking the river if called by Mr. Great. I was hoping to get him to muck a flush draw, which he would be correct in drawing to. His folding would increase my equity in the hand. If I got reraised, I was probably going to have to let the hand go, but the actualized cost was the same as if I paid off, assuming I was beat. That said, folding ended any chance of my winning the hand.
Mr. Great thought about it for a moment and called. Poor Player mucked his hand. I was thinking that I didn't like my chances in this pot when the dealer rivered a jack. Jacks full! What a difference a card makes!
Mr. Great led into me. I thought that raising had no value. I didn't think he was bluffing. He could have four sixes, and wouldn't pay me off unless he was at least tied with me. I flat-called him.
Mr. Great said, "I thought you might have gotten counterfeited." He turned over Q-Q. I showed my hand and the dealer pushed me the pot.
Why did I misread that so badly? I didn't include an overpair in his range of hands because I assumed he would raise with one. I mix it up by limping with aces, and sometimes with kings, but never with queens. That said, Mr. Great had me in deep trouble until I caught the jack, because of his deception. And being in the small blind, he wasn't folding any of the field with a preflop raise - as bad aces and kings, including mine, were coming for one more bet in that spot. Mr. Great was keeping the pot small, making his opponents' post-flop errors greater. It can be a significant error to think that an opponent will think as you do, and that's what I did here.
"What is he thinking? What does he think I'm thinking?" has become a maxim of the game. It pays huge dividends if you can do it accurately and act on it! Of course, that is much easier said than done!
I gathered that Mr. Great thought I held 3-3 and that he was drawing to a 6 or a queen, and then decided to try a bluff when the jack came. He put me on what I was trying to manipulate him into thinking I had, and then tried to outplay that hand. It was pretty talented, creative thinking on his part, if I may say so! It's part of what makes him so great! I have no clue how I am doing overall against Mr. Great, but I know it ain't great!
Roy Cooke has played winning professional poker since 1972, and has been a Card Player columnist since 1992. He has a successful Las Vegas real estate brokerage. His e-mail address is [email protected]. He has written six poker books that are available from www.conjelco.com/cooke, including the soon-to-be-released Real Poker III. His longtime collaborator John Bond is featured in Best American Mystery Stories 2007.
