Noted football commentator John Madden tells a story about a time when he was a young coach. He went to a seminar by legendary coach Vince Lombardi, who was going to speak on a play called the "Power Sweep." Madden had been coaching for a while and had been using this play, and believed he understood it fairly well. In fact, he thought that if pressed, he could describe the play in such detail, it would take him 15 minutes to describe all of the ramifications.
Then he visited Lombardi's seminar, and discovered that Lombardi spoke about the Power Sweep and nothing else for eight full hours!
This story reminds me of poker. Even the simplest and most common occurrences can have such depth and complexity that they could engross some poker scholars for a very long time.
A common situation: Let's take a look at a common heads-up limit hold'em play that takes place every hour in every poker room. You hold the A
J
in middle position in a $20-$40 game. You open-raise, and only the big blind calls. The flop comes 8
7
3
. The big blind checks.
You can't be thrilled about the flop, as you whiffed entirely, but you will almost certainly bet at it anyway. If your opponent missed as well, which he probably did, he will likely fold. You will take in the small pot, tip the dealer, and congratulate yourself on fine poker playing.
But what if he check-raises? Well, if he is Mr. Zero Imagination, he will check-raise with a pair or better, call with a draw, and fold with a miss. So, you can put him on a pair or better. OK, it's time for math. There are now seven-and-a-half small bets in the pot, and you have to call one. You have somewhere between six outs (if he has a pair without an ace or jack kicker) to near zero (if he has a set, you need 9, 10 to win). Pairs are most likely, so let's say you have five effective outs. There are 47 unknown cards, so you are a 9.4-to-1 dog. You should fold. Even if you hit the turn, you still have to fade the river, and Mr. Zero may even give up if an ace falls, so implied odds are not really there.
But Mr. Zero is a vanishing breed. Suppose, instead, that your opponent is Mr. Creative. Now, he may be check-raising you with pairs or draws, or sometimes even testing to see if you have overcards or really have an overpair. Folding is now out of the question, because if you muck every time you miss the flop, bet, and get check-raised, your more observant opponents will check-raise you to the poorhouse.
Considering alternative plans: So, what now? You can choose from among the following plans:
1. Three-bet now, representing a big pair. Bet all the way, hoping you hit or he folds.
2. Three-bet now, hoping to take a free card. If you miss, fold on the river.
3. Three-bet now, hoping to get a free card, but call a bet on the river if you miss, trying to pick off a bluff.
4. Three-bet now, bet the turn no matter what, and check the river if he calls the turn, unless you hit on the river.
5. Call now, and call all the way, hoping to catch a bluff.
6. Call now, call the turn, and try to look or sound like a guy who is planning to call the river, but fold if he actually bets. (This gets tried a lot, and experienced players always bet right into the posturing.)
7. Call now, and raise the turn, representing a big pair. Plan to check the river if he is still in and you miss.
8. Call now, and raise the turn, representing a big pair. Plan to bet the river whether you make a hand or not.
9. Call now, planning to raise the turn if an ace or jack hits. Otherwise, fold if he bets. (Note that this is the most common plan, and easily one of the worst available.)
10. Call now, planning to raise the turn and bet the river if an ace, king, queen, or jack hits. Otherwise, fold.
11. Call now, planning to raise the turn and bet the river if an ace, king, queen, jack, 10, or 9 hits (the latter two cards give you a gutshot). Otherwise, fold.
Wow, 11 possible plans to choose from (there are more, including ones in which you decide to check the flop with several options later), and all that happened was that you bet and got check-raised! Even these plans assume that if you raise, he will cooperate by calling and checking the turn, and if you call, he will cooperate and bet. He still may reraise if you select plans one through four, or check-raise the turn. After all, he has his own agenda.
You do not have to pick one plan and execute it every time. In fact, you are better off selecting different plans at different times, depending on such factors as:
• Your current table image. Have you been showing down big hands or some bluffs recently?
• How did you play the last time this type of situation came up during this session or against this player?
• Did it work?
• How creative you think the big blind is.
• What you estimate his bluffing frequency to be in this spot.
• How likely you think he is to fold if he thinks he is beat.
• How likely you think he is to keep bluffing if he misses.
It would take at least a year's worth of columns to fully analyze the benefits, drawbacks, math, and specific situations that would help you decide which plan to use when, or how often to select which one. Poker mathematicians could possibly develop a formula to select each option an optimal number of times, based on assumptions about the specific range of hands of the check-raiser and his tendencies.
These conclusions and advice would be different if the flop were, say, 8
7
3
(you have the A
), or 8
7
3
(two of your ace and jack outs may complete or create a flush draw), or 8
5
3
(your opponent has fewer likely draws).
Conclusion: No wonder poker is such a complex game! In our example, all you did was raise with an obvious raising hand, get one caller, bet at the flop, and get check-raised. You are heads up in a fairly small pot, and already your options and the reasons for them are spiraling out of control.
Not only that, but if you select an excellent option, and execute it flawlessly, you still may lose the hand. Or, you can select one that would almost always be wrong, but will win this time. You will never know for sure if you did the right thing or not, regardless of the result.
And that is why poker is the great game it is, and why the debates about how best to play keep raging.
Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].
