Pot-Limit Omaha: Top-Set Plus

In the last issue, I identified the seven big-play objectives in pot-limit Omaha (PLO), as noted in my recently released book Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy. Namely, they are:

1. The Nut Straight Freeroll
2. The Nut Full House Freeroll
3. Overfull Vs. Underfull
4. Set Over Set
5. Flush Over Flush
6. Top Set-Plus
7. Dominating Draws

I also discussed big-play objective No. 1 – The Nut Straight Freeroll. In this column, I am going to skip ahead to big-play objective No. 6, which is Top-Set Plus.



Top-Set Plus

A common preflop playing error that inexperienced players make in pot-limit Omaha is playing virtually any pair in hope of flopping a set. And the main reason that players who are new to PLO make this mistake is that if you flop a set in no-limit hold'em, you are going to be pretty comfortable playing for stacks, even with bottom set. The problem in PLO is that this is not always the case, and for a couple of reasons:

1. If you play for stacks with the bare middle or bottom set, you are usually going to be either a small favorite (or even a dog) to a big draw, or a big dog to top set.



2. If you play a big pot with top set, you will often be facing a big draw, against which you may be a small favorite or even a dog. And if you play for stacks on the flop against competent players, you will be more likely to be up against a big draw than a smaller set, because competent players won't play for stacks on the flop with a bare middle or bottom set.



So, the message is pretty clear: In general, we are looking to flop top set. And when the drawing hands run so big that they can be a favorite over a dry set, our goal isn't to flop merely a set, but a multiway hand. In other words, we want to flop a set with straight and/or flush draws to go with it.



Note from the tables below that a bare set is roughly a 5-4 favorite against a 13-card straight draw, as in the 9 9 3 2 versus the KQ J10 on a 9 8 4 board. However, against a 13-card straight draw with a flush draw and backdoor-flush draw, a bare set is a slight dog. But by adding straight draws, backdoor-flush draws, or the nut-flush draw to go with our set, we significantly improve the value of our equity in the hand.



Also note that a set with the nut-flush draw is a favorite against even the biggest conceivable drawing hand. For example, the A 2 9 9 on a 9 8 4 board is a 63 percent-37 percent favorite against the J 10 7 6 (20-card straight draw with a flush draw and backdoor-flush draw). This is part of the reason why the advice of playing "four cards that all coordinate with each other" is too narrow a definition of what makes a good starting hand in PLO. While a hand like the A 2 99 is much less likely to catch a favorable flop than a hand such as the Q J 10 9, and therefore is more speculative, it is hard to flop a much stronger hand than a set with the nut-flush draw. As such, everybody would like to see a cheap flop with a hand like the A 2 9 9 (a suited ace with an offsuit pair).

There is another item of note: The biggest straight draw utilizing an ace and another boardcard is a nine-card "inside" wrap (for example, K-Q-J-X on an A-10-X board); the biggest straight draw utilizing a king and second boardcard is a 13-card wrap (for example, A-J-10-X on a K-Q-X board); and the biggest straight draw utilizing a queen and a second boardcard is a 16-card wrap (for example, A-K-10-9 on a Q-J-X board). But once you get to the jack on down, 20-card wraps become possible (for example, K-Q-9-8 on a J-10-X board).



The gist of it is that the smaller the set, the bigger the opposing draws become, and as such, the more important it is to have side cards that can produce a multiway attack. So, while it might be OK to play bare A-A and maybe bare K-K to try to flop a set – and perhaps bare Q-Q on the button, as well – it is generally a bad idea to take a flop with bare J-J or worse, especially when playing out of position.



PLO Big Play Concept: Our goal is to flop not just top set, but a multiway hand. It is gambling at best to play a pair without connectors (preferably suited) or a suited ace.



PLO Big Play Concept: The smaller the pair, the more important the side cards become.



Jeff Hwang is a semiprofessional player and author of Pot-Limit Omaha: The Big Play Strategy. Jeff is also an investment analyst who writes about casino stocks for the Motley Fool at Fool.com. For a list of live PLO games near you, check out Jeff's website at jeffhwang.com.