The Oracle's Corner

This hand comes from the 2008 Bellagio Cup IV, and it involved two of the greatest players in the game – Lee Markholt and David "The Dragon" Pham – and me. It was day 3, we were in the money, and the play at this table was very aggressive, with reraising preflop happening on many hands.











Roy Winston's Commentary and Read



Lee raises from the cutoff to 21,000, a little less than three big blinds. I look down at pocket tens, take a moment, and then smooth-call from the button. I think I am most likely ahead of Lee, and this smooth-call will camouflage my hand. If I can get lucky and spike a 10, maybe I can get Lee to double me up. Lee and I play cash games together on a regular basis and have oftentimes been at the same tournament table. In fact, at last year's World Poker Tour event at Niagara Falls, he sent me to the rail with a set against my top pair, and at this year's WPT Championship, I returned the favor and got him with Q-Q against J-J. This was especially sweet, because I had just lost a big pot to Dario Minieri, and I think Lee thought I was on tilt; when I quickly three-bet him preflop, he moved all in and I called.



To further complicate things, David takes a minute and raises 50,000 from the small blind. At this point, my read is that Lee opened with a potentially wide range of hands and isn't particularly strong. My smooth-call with pocket tens may have seemed weak to David, and he was squeezing us with his reraise. David is an aggressive player, and he is entirely capable of raising with anything, especially since he is out of position. Lee seems surprised, and after a couple of minutes he reraises an additional 150,000. OK, now I'm starting to believe that Lee has a hand, but he is a great player, and if he thinks David is squeezing, he is capable of reraising with any two cards. Not many players can reraise in this spot with a marginal hand, but Lee is capable of anything. My problem is that now my choices are somewhat limited; I can commit all of my chips or fold. I would have only about 90,000 left if I called Lee's last raise. Had Lee smooth-called, I most likely would have called, and had Lee folded, I am not sure, but most likely I would have called the 50,000 raise and taken the flop with the Dragon, as I was in position with a premium hand. Again, I was trapped between two of the greatest players in the game, and thought this could be a steal, resteal situation. I have preached many times in my blog that it's better to make a bad laydown than a bad call, and in this spot against these two "criminals," I thought I'd better take my own advice and fold. David then moves all in (boy, am I happy I folded), and Lee calls. Of course, it's aces against kings.



As we discussed this hand after Lee was eliminated, David was surprised that I thought his 50,000 raise was potentially a squeeze. He said, "Roy, do you think I would squeeze you two?"



I answered, "You certainly would if you perceived weakness and saw the opportunity to snap up some chips preflop without a flop."



We also discussed Lee's preflop reraise and came to the same conclusion that he was capable of a monster bluff in this situation.



David also said, "Roy, you know I always have it." That's not the David Pham I know; he is capable of almost anything.



Michael Binger's Analysis



While seemingly a very straightforward hand with pocket aces versus pocket kings all in preflop, there are some interesting elements. Consider Roy's first decision with 10-10 on the button. With a cutoff raise, it is very tempting to reraise with a premium hand like pocket tens. However, as Roy correctly inferred, the stack sizes and position are not so good for a reraise. Since Lee opened for 21,000, a standard reraise would be to, say, 70,000. Consider what might happen when you do this: Lee might fold and you win 42,000. Lee might call and the pot is now 161,000, and you (Roy) have 230,000 left. Since most flops will contain overcards, you will have a hard time deciding how to play the flop. Even though you have position, you have mostly negated your positional advantage by building such a big pot, since there are only one or maybe two bets left before you are all in. Finally, Lee may reraise you, which means you probably have to fold your hand unless you have some sick read. Notice that your hand barely matters when you reraise here … you will rarely go to a showdown. Unless I am up against a hyperaggressive opponent who I think will play back at me with an air ball, I am unlikely to reraise with 10-10. By just calling, I will be able to take maximum advantage of my position, because with a pot of 63,000 and effective stacks of 279,000, there are multiple rounds of betting possible after the flop. Calling also disguises my hand strength. Moving on now: After Roy calls, David reraises to 71,000 from the small blind and Lee reraises to 221,000. While it is possible that one of them is stealing here, it is pretty unlikely that both of them are – so it is safe to muck pocket tens without much thought.



Roy Winston's Rebuttal



I do not have much to add to Michael's analysis; he covers it well. Perhaps next time I'll have the aces.



Pro Conclusions



I made a good fold, although I was close to moving all in. The hand was just unlucky for Lee. It always seems easy to say it's an obvious fold in a situation like this, but playing with Lee and David so often, I had some trouble believing they both had hands, although you have to put at least one of them on something real. Who knows? Lee certainly could have had A-K, David could have been squeezing, and my tens could have held up, at least in my fantasy world.