Inside Outs and Outside Outs

It sometimes happens that you're in the wrong place at the wrong time – out of position in a raised pot – and it takes some imaginative thinking to capture the pot. In this column, we'll contemplate the imaginative thinking of "inside outs" (cards that are actually good for your hand) and "outside outs" (cards that set up bluffs), and see if we can increase our ways to win.



First, let's set the stage. You're playing in a $2-$5 no-limit hold'em game, and you've been doing a fairly good job of playing correctly. You've avoided reckless adventures, obeyed the power of position, and built your stack up from a starting sum of $200 to, let's say, $350 or so. Now you pick up the 9 9 in middle position and raise, hoping to fold the field or play heads up against one of the blinds. Instead, though, the cutoff calls, the button calls, and the big blind calls. You have three callers – two of whom are behind you – when you'd really rather have one or none. Oh, well, some days you're the cheese, and some days you're the fondue, true? Now, the flop comes A Q 10, and guess what? Your pocket nines just became pocket nones, because there's no reasonable way to suppose that one of three foes doesn't have some piece of that flop.



Your real outs are exactly two: the 9 and the other 9. These are your inside outs, and if that's all you had going for you, you'd pretty much be done with the hand. You'd likely check when it's checked to you (giving up the lead, which is always sadness and often a mistake) and fold to any bet. Hey, that's not the worst thing that can happen. But here's what you could do instead. If it's checked to you, go ahead and bet. Don't go nuts, just bet half the pot or so. But also don't be so quick to give up. You raised preflop, after all. They don't know that you don't have pocket aces (unless they have pocket aces, in which case you're just the fondue; oh, well). Make that continuation-bet. Maybe they'll all fold. Certainly some of them will fold. Let's say two do, so that now you're heads up against the big blind.



The turn is a total brick, the 6, say, and the big blind checks to you. Should you bet again? Well, let's think it through. You bet the flop and everyone folded back to the big blind. If he's on a draw, he doesn't really have odds to call (unless it's a huge draw, but then why doesn't he raise?). For the sake of conversation, we'll say that he's smart enough to know that. So, what does he have? I'm guessing a good queen or a bad ace, neither of which he feels comfortable leading into you on the turn. Sure, if you bet here, you might get him to lay down, but you'd better bet big, because he already demonstrated his willingness to call once, and you've got to believe that there's at least a chance he's not going anywhere.



Outside outs to the rescue! You're going to award yourself every remaining heart in the deck, plus all of the non-heart jacks and kings, and by so doing, you're going to pick up an additional 17 ways to win. How can you do this? Easy. Since you have concluded that your foe isn't on a draw, you might as well claim the draw – in fact, all draws – for yourself. Interestingly, you stake your claim on the turn not by betting, but by checking, since that's what a draw does when it wants a free card. Obviously, you're hoping for a miracle 9 on the river, but the deck is now full of non-miracle flush and straight cards that will complete your "outside" hand as well.



Note that you've now told your foe a plausible and compelling story in the hand. You raised preflop, a raise that easily could come from a hand like the A J. You made a continuation-bet, which was expected and normal. Now, on the turn, you decline to bet again. What does this tell an attentive player? That you're happy to take a free card. This is a story that's consistent with a straight draw or a flush draw, and here's the beautiful part: You don't care which draw gets there, because you own them both. Let's say that the river is the 3. Your foe checks. It sure looks like you got there, doesn't it?



Now, you have to have the courage of your convictions and bet. Don't bet too small – as you don't want to give your enemy an easy "curiosity call." On the other hand, don't get all insane and bet the house, yard, and playground equipment, for two reasons. First, a huge overbet may very well look like the bluff it is. Second, if you misjudged the situation (it happens) and your foe calls you down, you don't want to lose the house, yard, and playground equipment. I like a little more than half the pot here.



To win with outside outs, then, leverage the board's texture and your convincing and consistent story. I'm not recommending that you go looking for this kind of trouble. If you raise with nines and get the wrong kind of response and the wrong kind of flop, there's absolutely nothing wrong with ducking out. But if you surrender the lead too easily, you'll embolden your foes to call more often and to take the pot away from you when you manifestly miss. Most of the time you're going to have to be making continuation-bets behind your preflop raises, so you're going to need some backup lines of play. Outside outs are one such line. In the best of all possible worlds, you bet your pocket pair, hit a set on the flop, and get paid off. As it happens, we don't live in the best of all possible worlds, so when plan A goes south, it's useful to have a canny plan B standing by.

Think about this the next time you find yourself in a troubling situation. If your actual outs can't bring the pot home, maybe your abundant and imaginative outside outs can do the job instead.



John Vorhaus is the author of the Killer Poker book series. He resides in cyberspace at vorza.com, and in the blogosphere at somnifer.typepad.com. John Vorhaus' photo: Gerard Brewer.