A Simple Decision Becomes Complex

One of the things that fascinates me (and hopefully you, since you are reading my column) is the way a seemingly simple situation can yield a very complex analysis. Sometimes, nothing much seems to happen, but if you look at all the things that could have happened, might happen in the future, or possibly could be set up by your current actions, the implications spiral dizzyingly.



Let's look at one of the simpler hands I played in a $30-$60 limit hold'em game. The game was quite lively, but on this occasion, nearly everyone seemed to take a break. An unknown player open-raised from second under the gun, and everyone folded to me in the big blind. I held the Q J and called.



The flop arrived J 6 2. I bet, and the raiser called. The turn was the 8. I bet, and he folded. I won a small pot. It was not the most exciting hand in history.



Perhaps the first thing that occurs to you is that I lost a small bet by my play. "I would have check-raised the flop and collected an extra small bet," many of you are thinking. Hey, nice play. It certainly would have worked here, but is that all there is? Let's assume you are the player with the Q J, and consider your options.



What if the raiser had a better hand than you did? If you tried to check-raise, you now would lose (at least) the extra half-bet you gained when he gave up. Compare these two scenarios:



1. You bet the flop, he calls. You bet the turn, he raises, you fold.



2. You check the flop, he bets, you check-raise, he calls. You bet the turn, he raises, you fold.



In scenario No. 2, you now lose four small bets, compared to three in scenario No. 1. So, it would seem that check-raising loses the extra bet when you are behind, but wins it when you are ahead. So, perhaps it comes down to how often you may be behind or ahead. The wider his range of raising hands, the more likely you are to be ahead. If he had raised with A-3 suited, J-10, or 5-5 in that position, the case for check-raising becomes stronger. If he raises only with A-A through 10-10, A-K through A-J, and K-Q, betting out may be the better play.



Notice that in both of these scenarios, we assume that he is calling on the flop and raising on the turn, and you always believe him and fold. There are other options:



• He may raise the turn with a hand you can beat.



• He may raise the flop instead.



He may raise the turn with a hand you can beat: First, he may raise on the turn with a hand that's worse than yours, as a bluff, a semibluff, or to get a free showdown. Depending on your assessment of how likely this opponent is to attempt a tricky play instead of a straightforward one, you may not be able to fold.



In fact, one of my favorite reasons for betting into the raiser in live play is that you can often induce tells. When a preflop raiser is called by only the big blind, he fully expects his opponent to check to him, and pretty much always bets. The times he should check are rare, so he is quite prepared to place chips in the pot after a check.



When you bet instead, his muscles and mind must contend with a totally unexpected event. He must now suddenly make a decision that he was not expecting to make. With a weak hand, or one that missed the flop, he must consider folding. With a powerful hand, he must decide whether to raise now or later. With some medium hand, he generally will decide to call. No matter what he decides, you will be watching to see how he reacts and how quickly and decisively he responds.



The knowledge you gain by betting and observing cannot be duplicated by check-raising, because that is an expected play, and he is mentally prepared for it. Thus, betting into the raiser can potentially give you guidance as to how to interpret his raise on the turn, should it come.



Another factor that comes into account is the turn card. Is it an overcard? Does it produce a draw that he may possibly hold? The more benign the turn card, the less likely he is to be bluffing, as there is less for him to represent. Even tricky opponents prefer to raise the turn while representing something scary, or with additional outs if they are called.



He may raise the flop instead: Oftentimes, he raises the flop, either directly when bet into or by three-betting after a check-raise. When you check, his initial bet tells you nothing at all, so his first chance to give you information comes after you check-raise.



If he is reliable, you may be able to lay down your hand here. Many opponents simply will not raise you if they cannot beat top pair.



On the other side of the coin, some opponents believe it is their duty to raise the flop if they raised preflop. Therefore, any action they take yields zero strategic information. When you know that you are facing this sort of raise, you can learn more about his hand only by raising yet again, and even then your annoyingly tricky, aggressive opponent may not cooperate.



Aggressive players always force you into making difficult decisions, and it gets expensive to force them to reveal their hands. Often, players choose to play passively, calling all the way down, rather than make a lot of raises with what may be the second-best hand.



Conclusion: As you sit there with top pair, medium kicker in the blind, deciding whether to bet, check-raise, or check-call, try to consider which of these possible options is superior, given your opponent and what he thinks of you. Think about how your decision will affect the way that your other opponents will react on later hands. Take into account pot size and how much you will be willing to risk as the hand continues.



Even making a simple bet in a stripped-down situation gives you a host of possibilities to factor into your decision. No one can think of them all, and many will be unknown at any specific moment. But the more insight you can apply, the better you know your opponent, and the deeper you look into the possible options, the better your future decisions will be.



Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].