Mind Over Poker

I'm about halfway through Malcolm Gladwell's eye-opening new book Outliers. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Gladwell's work, his intention is to get the reader to challenge accepted wisdom. The status quo being questioned in Outliers is the answer to the age-old question of what makes people successful. Certainly, such qualities as hard work, perseverance, intelligence, and ambition are relevant. However, Gladwell makes a compelling case that other factors out of our control, such as when and where we were born, are equally, if not more, important.

One chapter that grabbed my attention, as far as it relating to poker, is the one titled "The 10,000 Hour Rule." Gladwell makes the case that to become truly expert in any field requires 10,000 hours of practice. From music to software programming, 10,000 hours seems to be the magical threshold to expertise. Now, if we take this to be true, most fields seem like purely a meritocracy. That is, those willing to put in the time will succeed. Of course, there must be some innate talent to begin with. The overwhelming majority of us won't be major-league baseball players, no matter how much time we invest. Of course, with Gladwell, nothing is this simple. He takes the famous case of Bill Gates and some other software programmers to show how important the luck factor is. To summarize, by a freak set of occurrences in his formative years, Gates had unparalleled access to computers in a time when only a few select individuals did. Obviously, Gates took full advantage of that luck in a way that extremely few people could have. Not too many others given the identical situation would have been Gates. But Gates, in all likelihood, wouldn't have been Gates, either, without the benefit of those freaky circumstances. He had put in his 10,000 hours right before the personal computing business gained traction and was ideally positioned.

So, what does this have to do with poker? If we take the 10,000 hour rule at face value, it means that if you played poker full time, it would take you five years to amass the time needed for expertise (40 hours a week x 50 weeks a year is 2,000 hours). Ten years ago, there weren't a lot of people who could put in that kind of time unless they packed up and moved to Las Vegas, Los Angeles, or Atlantic City. Even then, they would need the bankroll to survive the learning curve. For the part-time or recreational player, it would take decades to reach the required 10,000 hours.

With the advent of online poker sites, that all changed. Now, with the ability to multitable, coupled with how quickly online play moves, that 10,000 hour threshold can be achieved in a dramatically shorter time period. More importantly, there are no longer any real barriers to entry. With the micro limits available online, just about anyone can open an account and begin grinding. Of course, just like the overwhelming majority of us wouldn't be Bill Gates given the same circumstances, neither will we be Phil Ivey once we get our 10,000 hours under our belts.

I don't believe that there is a straight-line correlation between time practiced and poker proficiency. Other factors such as innate skill, personal control, ability to learn quickly, and adaptability are relevant. I do, however, think the 10,000 hour rule can be used as a fairly good barometer of where one stands in the poker food chain. If you've been playing full time for five years and have yet to eke out a profit, poker is probably not the game for you. If you're just starting out and winning, don't build up false confidence. There's a long road of ups and downs ahead of you. The number of good players has increased dramatically in the last five years. The good news is that the overall number of players has increased, as well.

The biggest takeaway I can offer is that game selection is critical to success. There are players all across the spectrum, ranging from the true novice to the very proficient. Know where you stand in that spectrum and choose games accordingly. If you are a player with innate ability who learns quickly and has about 2,000 hours under your belt, there are plenty of games that you can beat. Going up against the profession's Bill Gates types, however, wouldn't be a wise choice. Keep in mind the old adage about no-limit hold'em: "It's a game that takes minutes to learn, but a lifetime to master." The 10,000 hour rule may be a good barometer to test where you are on that lifetime spectrum.

David Apostolico is the author of numerous poker-strategy books, including Tournament Poker and The Art of War. You can contact him at [email protected].