Railbird Roundtable

In this new Card Player column, Bryan Devonshire and a cast of well-known pros provide their opinions on many different hands -- everything from no-limit hold'em to badugi -- that were played recently in the high-stakes poker world.

Gavin Smith played this hand in the 2008 Bellagio Five-Diamond World Poker Classic $15,000 World Poker Tour main event. It was the fourth of five levels on day one, the blinds were 200-400 with a 50 ante, and players had started the tournament with 45,000 in chips. We are going to touch on several concepts here, with balancing your own range being the key focus.

The Hand

Gavin Smith (30,000) limps in with the A 7 under the gun, Jimmy Fricke (60,000) limps in with the Q J from the cutoff, the button (45,000) limps in with the 6 5, both blinds (approximately 50,000) limp in, and they see the flop five-handed.

Flop (2,500 in the pot): 10 6 5. Gavin bets 1,500, Jimmy calls, the button raises to 6,000, both blinds fold, Gavin calls, Jimmy calls.

Turn (20,500 in the pot): A. Gavin shoves 23,400. The button calls.

River: 2

For most players, limping with the A 7 from under the gun is going to be a leak. You really have to be confident in your ability to play post-flop and out of position to play this hand.

Flop

That said, Gavin betting the flop is standard, but what we do with the raise is where there are some interesting points. My first instinct was to shove over the raiser, but we are far too deep and his range is too strong to be putting 74 big blinds into the pot on the flop in a limped pot with just the nut-flush draw. If we had 12-plus outs, shoving the flop would be a reasonable option, but here, it's pretty unreasonable for us to assume at this point that our ace will be good.

We need to be thinking about what our opponents have. We can't just think, "Nut-flush draw, bet sizes look close, ship." The point of shoving with draws as a semibluff is to get value from the times they fold and to balance your range with the times that you have monster made hands. In this case, however, what hands can we reasonably put the button on that he's going to fold to our shove? Is he raise-folding A-10 here? Is he even going to raise A-10 here?

This is the most important aspect of your decision-making process at the table, and ultimately the key to the question, "What is my best possible play right now?" Ask yourself that question every single time it is your turn, and really go through the options, deducing the best play through reasoning and the information that you have.

Therefore, if we believe in this instance that the button is raising very light and will fold to a shove, we should think more about shoving. However, in this situation, we cannot make that judgment reasonably, and therefore need to think about calling or folding. We have the nut-flush draw, so folding seems pretty silly, and that leaves us with the call.

Turn

We turn top pair; this is a very interesting card. We have 23,000 and there's 20,000 in the pot. After Jimmy called on the flop, I'd be putting him on some sort of medium flush draw, maybe with a "gutterball," and I think that makes this hand easier to play. We're pretty much crushing Jimmy at this point and want him to put money into the pot. I feel like we're beat by the other player. It's unlikely he's raising with any one-pair hand besides A-10. If the button has something goofy like a bluff or a draw, we're crushing him, too, and want him to put money in. The only hands we're really afraid of giving free cards to are combo diamond draws, but based on the flop action, it's safe to assume that those hands are not in their ranges.

Therefore, if we check the turn, Jimmy will likely check behind us. I don't expect the button villain, an amateur, to put Gavin all in for 23,000. If he's going to bet, he's probably going to bet around 12,000. But since the ace is a scare card, you might even get a free card. I would check-call any bet here, shoving the river if I get there and check-calling if I brick. Our opponent is not folding enough of his range on the turn to make shoving profitable, and by shoving the turn, we lose out on any dead money that we can get out of Jimmy.

In the end, the button thought for a long time and called Smith's all-in bet with the 6 5.

Pro Analysis

I had the Q J in this hand, and my flop call is debatable because I could be drawing close to stone dead, but I decided to gamble. I thought he had two pair or a set here basically every time, and people don't like folding those hands. Calling with the nut-flush draw is definitely fine.

However, the turn shove is highly suspect. If you had two pair or a set on the flop, you'd likely shove then with me behind you, and the ace is really unlikely to improve you to anything better than a pair and a flush draw.

You're not afraid of pretty much any card coming on the river if you have the best hand, and if the guy shoves the river after raising the flop and betting the turn, you can be pretty sure that your top pair is no good. He might even check behind on the river on a brick, which would be fantastic for you. Shoving the turn doesn't have to work often to be good, but I just don't see some nitty regular folding two pair or better here basically ever. -- Jimmy "GobboBoy" Fricke


I really hate the limp in early position even if you are the Gavin Smith. There are antes, which makes taking down the blinds very profitable. A-X, even suited, is always problematic and is going to put you in a lot of difficult situations post-flop. If the table is so passive that you think you can limp A-7 suited around and play a multiway pot, looking to hit a big hand, it's also passive enough to just raise and take down the blinds and antes, or carry the initiative post-flop if you get one or two callers (and more easily stack someone if you do hit that big hand). Limping with a suited ace has merit with deeper stacks and no antes, but not here. -- Paul "uclabruinz" Smith


This is the problem with betting out on the flop ... you build the pot big enough that if you get raised from behind, you're in a bad spot where you can't fold, but the pot will be big enough that you risk getting bet out on the turn ... which really is what should have happened here. When you're in a spot like this where you have a strong draw on the flop, I think it's fine to just check the flop to keep the pot small. -- Dutch Boyd


I believe there are only two interesting points to this hand. First, as it turned out, Jimmy had a flush draw and had us both covered, and on the flop action, a question could be raised as to whether shoving may be an appropriate play [for Jimmy]. To call the 4,500 more, he must have figured his flush draw was good. The pot is now awfully big, so getting it in [on the flop] with considerable fold equity might be a good play. I am not sure what the other guy would have done, but with my stack size and the blinds where they were, I would [have] definitely folded to Jimmy's shove.

I think it is very reasonable to rule out my having flopped two pair or a set. I also think you can figure that the ace helped my hand; therefore, I really think I can effectively be put on a very small range, which is the nut-flush draw, A-10, or A-A. This is precisely how I would have played the flop with all three hands if I had chosen to play preflop the way that I did. Therefore, I think given that the only hand he is beating has 16 outs, albeit that it is the most likely of the three hands, the other two hands have him in jail for effectively his tournament life. Given that situation, I believe a fold by the gentleman is the correct play on the turn. However, he made what turned out to be a good call, I whiffed, and he won the hand. -- Gavin Smith

I find it interesting that Jimmy and Gavin both agree that Gavin never has two pair or better on the flop, but because of that, they differ on their turn action. Gavin believes his range is narrowed to A-A, A-10, and the A X by betting the turn, and since he has only about a pot-sized bet remaining, he might as well shove it. He's not checking A-A or A-10, because he doesn't want to give free cards, and by shoving the A X, he balances his range against the times that he has the nuts.

Bryan "Devo" Devonshire has been a professional since the fall of 2003, after going jobless in Colorado. An expert wilderness guide with a specialization in white-water rafting, he got his start propping a $2-$5 spread-limit game in Cripple Creek, Colorado, while serving on Search and Rescue. He hit the tournament scene in 2006, taking second in his first-ever World Series of Poker event; to date, he has cashed for more than $800,000 live and more than $380,000 online. A Southern California native and Las Vegas resident, he can be reached at [email protected].