Bluffing in Limit Hold'em: Mission Impossible?

In my last column, I introduced the three possibilities for bluffing on the turn:

1. Everyone checked the flop.
2. Someone else bet the flop.
3. You bet the flop.

I discussed the first one in detail. To find the previous columns in this series, please go to www.CardPlayer.com.

We now will continue with the other two possibilities.

Someone else bet the flop: This is a difficult one to consider, because if you are now contemplating bluffing on the turn, you must have called a bet on the flop with nothing. Far more common is the possibility of semibluffing on the turn, whereby you called the flop with a draw of some kind and now hope to represent something else and win without improving.

We will return to the pure bluff shortly, but let's first examine the types of representations that work on the turn after someone else has bet the flop. The primary concept is to convince the bettor that he is possibly drawing dead even if he has a real hand.

The best possible scenario is that the turn card brings four to a straight. Boards like 8-7-6-5 can offer excellent bluffing chances, even against overpairs like J-J. For example, you call a raise from the big blind with the Q J. The flop is 8-7-6 with two of your suit, and you check and call. Now, the turn is a 5 and you bet out. You are semibluffing, but your opponent must take your bet quite seriously. If he has a hand like A-J, it is very tough for him to make the call, realizing that he will have to make another one to win the still-modest pot. Even if you don't have a straight, you may have two pair with a hand like 7-5. Many players will fold even a big pair.

Similar boards occur when the turn card brings a gutshot straight, like 8-6-5 on the flop and a 7 on the turn. Your bluff attempt has slightly less credibility, as you have to convince your opponent that you stayed on the flop with an inside-straight draw.

Four cards of the same suit also may give you a chance to represent an unbeatable hand, but that's harder to pull off, as your opponent is certain to stay with a high card in the suit, and some play on with any flush. Of course, if your opponent does not have a card of the key suit, he may well fold a very good hand. Even so, representing straights works much better.

Let's look at some other types of turn bluffs. You raise preflop from middle position with Q-J suited, and are called by both blinds. The flop is 9-6-3 rainbow with one of your suit. The small blind bets, the big blind folds, and you call. Now, the turn is an ace or king, and the small blind bets again. With the right opponent and the right image, a raise here will win the pot for you. You are representing A-K, and your opponent has to assume that you are a favorite to have it.

You limp in preflop after two players with 10-9 suited. The flop is Q-Q-5. An aggressive player in one of the blinds bets, and everyone else folds. Granted, you have nothing, but a call here will give the impression that you have a queen and are waiting for the turn to raise. Frequently, the original bettor is bluffing himself, or just has a 5, and will check and fold on the turn, as he believes he can read your hand. Because the board has no draws, he will surmise that you "have to have" a queen.

This play is called "floating the flop," and it's fairly common in no-limit hold'em. Floating the flop in limit hold'em is largely unexplored, and has considerable potential that I will explore in a future column.

You bet the flop: You bluffed on the flop and got called. Should you bluff again on the turn? In general, no, but let's establish some guidelines.

Do not make a continuation-bluff if:

• More than one player called.
• An overcard came that did not help you.
• The player who called is passive and would not raise with a decent hand.

The math of bluffing starts to work against you. Let's say that you bet into a pot of four bets on the flop. You were getting 4-1 pot odds. If you were called by one player, the pot now contains six small bets, meaning you are getting only 3-1 odds to put in a big bet. Worse yet, your opponent called, so he probably has something and may well want to just get to showdown cheaply. Or, he might have slow-played the flop with a big hand, waiting to raise you on the turn. In any of these cases, you are not getting a good price to keep the illusion going.

But all is not lost. There are times when you should keep trying. They include the following:

• The top card on the board paired.
• You have opponents who pretty much call every flop (but then why were you bluffing in the first place?).
• You pick up a good draw.

Oftentimes when you bluff at a flop like 7-4-2, one or more players may call you with overcards. If the turn is another 7, bluff again.

As a general rule, if you bet the flop and are planning to call the turn, you should bet. For example, you hold the 8 7 and decide to bluff at a flop of the K 6 2. Unfortunately, you get called. The turn is now the 5, giving you an open-end straight draw. You suddenly have picked up enough to semibluff, so you may as well bet. Yes, you may get raised and wish you had checked, but you also may win now, which is a wonderful result with what started as a pure bluff and is now still just an 8 high.

Many players are addicted to the check-raise when they make their hand on the turn when out of position. You must bet in most of these situations if you expect your turn bluffs to have credibility. If you check when you have it and bet when you don't, you will not win many pots by bluffing. In addition, when you are not bluffing, which is most of the time, you would like to get paid off. Occasional bluffs increase opponents' skepticism and create opportunities for you to win extra big bets when ahead.

Bluffing on the turn is definitely a high-risk activity, but occasional attempts in the right situations can add considerably to your overall win rate.

Next issue, I will continue this series by looking at bluffing opportunities on the river.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].