Bluffing in Limit Hold'em: Mission Impossible?

So far in this series, we have looked at some general bluffing concepts, and have explored bluffing preflop, on the flop, and on the turn. This column and the next one will look at bluffing on the river. You can find all previous columns in this series at www.CardPlayer.com.

Bluffing on the river is totally different from bluffing on any other street. The difference is hope. On all other streets, you may be bluffing with outs, and your opponent may call you because he believes he can win, even if you have what you are representing. On the river, your bluff is always a pure bluff, and if you get called, it is because your opponent thinks he can beat some of the hands you hold.

Most river bluffs that you will make will be heads up, as attempting to bluff two or more opponents is generally futile. However, there are exceptions, and I will discuss my favorite one here.

This three-way bluff is high-risk, but very credible. This bluff can also operate on the turn, but is more likely to succeed on the river. Rarely do the proper circumstances actually appear, and you must study to recognize them before you experience them in combat, where it will be too late to begin to think about bluffing. This bluff must be made totally in tempo.

You are first to act when a slightly scary card hits on the river. It cannot be too scary, as your opponents may check, and you need them to bet. An aggressive player, who has been leading the betting, bets in spite of the scare card. The second player reluctantly calls, perhaps after hesitating. Now, you check-raise. This play looks to all but the most obtuse opponent like you have made your hand and are trapping to get the most money. Since there was a bet and a call, you must expect to be called, and therefore cannot be bluffing. Often enough, your opponents will "realize" this, and both will fold to your "obvious" hand.

Opportunities for this bluff arise only a few times a year. Here is a quick example: You hold the Q Q in the big blind. A loose player (Donny) raises from middle position preflop, the tightish button (Marie) calls, and you call. On the flop of J 7 2, you check-raise after a bet and a call. Both opponents call. The turn is the 3, you bet, and Donny raises. Marie thinks for a while, and calls. You call. The river is the 7, pairing the board. You check, and Donny bets, clearly representing the nut flush. Again, Marie huddles, and reluctantly calls. Now you check-raise, trying to look like a big blind who flopped two pair or a set and now filled up. The pot has more than 14 big bets in it when you make this admittedly expensive bluff, but if you can win once in seven tries, and you should, you will show a nice profit. Note that if you just bet here, you almost certainly would be called, but the check-raise has so much authority and credibility that - even though the pot is larger - you can convince your opponents to fold. Of course, Donny has to take pride in his reads and can make a tough laydown, but many middle-limit players fit that description.

Almost all remaining river bluffs are heads up. Basically, you bet or raise and hope the other guy finds a reason to fold.

We can look at the following cases:

1. You have been betting all the way.
2. Your opponent bet the flop and the turn.
3. Your opponent bet the flop and checked the turn.

You have been betting all the way: You bluffed or semibluffed the flop, got called, did it again on the turn, and got called again. Now what? Almost always, you should bet again. Yes, you will probably get called, but you never know. Oftentimes, players call the turn with things like bottom pair, hoping to make two pair, but then decide to fold on the river when you bet again and they "missed." Sometimes your opponent had the same draw that you had, but with better cards, and also missed.
Some pros deliberately call the turn quickly and confidently in order to convince you that they will certainly call the river. (Some amateurs try to intimidate you more directly by saying stuff like, "See you at the river.") They do this to convince you to check the river with marginal hands or bluffs. When you bet, they assume that you must have something significant because you do not seem appropriately intimidated, and they fold.

Sometimes a scare card comes that convinces you to give up betting. Too often, you should have bet anyway. Your opponent may have been calling you with a mediocre hand, hoping you were on a draw. Now, when the draw gets there, he decides that you had a good hand, or just made one, and gives up. If you give up first because you figure that he must have made his hand, you lose automatically. Yes, he may have made his hand and you will lose an extra bet, but absent any tells, you have to follow through, regardless. Bluffing all the way when heads up has been compared to "riding a tiger." You are at least fairly safe as long as you keep riding, but if you stop and try to get off, you are toast.

There is one special case worth looking at: "Bluffing" with A-K. You raise preflop with A-K, and get some calls. After some checks, you bet the flop and get a call or two. On the turn, you bet again and get one caller. Now, the river does not improve your hand, so you still have ace high. Many players decide to bluff here, thinking they are representing pocket aces. I say, save your money. Your opponent has put you on A-K and is calling with whatever beats that. If he cannot beat your A-K, he will fold and you will think your bluff was successful, but it was just a case of your bluffing with the best hand. In general, you want to bluff with hopeless hands that have no chance to win a showdown, not hands that have moderate showdown value.

Next issue, we will conclude this series by examining cases 2 and 3, and will look at an amazing bluff that I recently witnessed.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].