Bluffing in Limit Hold'em: Mission Impossible?

So far in this series, we have looked at some general bluffing concepts, and explored bluffing preflop, on the flop, and on the turn. In my last column, I introduced river bluffing, and listed three cases to consider:

1. You have been betting all the way.
2. Your opponent bet the flop and the turn.
3. Your opponent bet the flop and checked the turn.

That column also discussed case No. 1. You can find all previous columns at www.CardPlayer.com.

We can now move on to cases No. 2 and No. 3.

Your opponent bet the flop and the turn: This case is becoming much more common, as players who bet the flop feel obligated to bet the turn, whether they have anything or not. Position matters here, so let's look at two situations:

• You are out of position.
• You are in position.

You are out of position: Betting the river into an opponent who bet the flop and the turn usually indicates a good hand that wants to get paid off and fears the opponent will check behind. Not everyone makes this sort of bet, however, and for bluffs to succeed here, you need to be one who does. If you routinely check your decent hands for fear of raises, and check your excellent hands when planning to check-raise, you cannot bluff.

While any hand can bluff the river, the best opportunity is after a scare card hits that could easily have made your hand. For example, you call a raise from the small blind with the 8 7. You check-call twice on an A 6 5 flop and a 2 turn. If the river is the J, bet! You appear to have just made your flush. You probably will get called if your opponent has an ace, but what if he has pocket tens? He may decide that you have an ace and were afraid he would check because of the river spade, or that you made your flush. He will fold often enough for you to show a profit.

You are in position: Your opponent bet the flop and the turn, and now checks the river. He has a mediocre hand and is planning to call, or he missed and is planning to fold. Again, bluff only your worst hands here, as any reasonable hand, even king high, may win a showdown against a hand that is giving up.

If he bets on all three streets, your only bluff is the very rare bluff-raise. It is rare because it does not occur to many people to try it, as it costs a lot to try, and it seldom works. You need one of two specific opponent types here: first, one who value-bets liberally, can read hands well, and takes pride in making tough laydowns. The other type of opponent is a depressed and defeated one - a player who pessimistically expects the worst. He just thinks, "Yes, there is my terrible luck again," as he morosely pitches his cards into the muck after your raise. Many of these opponents do not even need to see a scare card; they will invent a hand for you and fold theirs.

Your opponent bet the flop and checked the turn: This sequence often arises when you are out of position and your opponent raised preflop. You called, perhaps with some others. On the flop, your opponent bet and you were the only caller. On the turn, you both checked. The river hits, and you have nothing. Should you bet?

To some extent, it depends on how scary the board is. For example, many players with J-J will bet a flop of A-8-5, but when called, will check the turn, planning to call the river and see if you really have an ace. Of course, they also may have K-J and be planning to fold.

In general, value-bet your good hands and bluff with your worst ones. The pot is typically small with no bets on the turn and only two of you betting the flop, so your opponent will not see much future in making thin calls. Your chances of winning are quite good.

An amazing bluff: I was at a $30-$60 limit hold'em table when a stranger sat down and posted in the cutoff. He called a raise preflop, and called again on the flop of K-10-6. An ace came on the turn, a tight early-position player bet, and the stranger raised. The tight player reraised, clearly indicating (for him) a Broadway straight. The river was a king, pairing the board. The tight player bet, and the stranger raised. It was absolutely clear to everyone at the table that the stranger must have filled up. The tight player sighed, and folded. The stranger flipped up J-7 offsuit and stacked the pot.

While it was foolish for the stranger to disclose the bluff (especially inasmuch as he continued bluffing and losing for the rest of the session), it demonstrates that painting the right picture and having the nerve to pull off an expensive deception play can occasionally pay off with a big pot.

Conclusion: This concludes the series on limit hold'em bluffing. There are several more esoteric bluffing possibilities that were not covered, but I think I touched on most of the common bluffing opportunities.

Perhaps your most important lesson is this: Be aware of opportunities. You must constantly be aware of not only what you actually hold, but what your opponents may think you hold from your play so far. Far too many players get mesmerized by their actual hand and play as if their opponents can see exactly what they have.

Assess the circumstances and decide if a bluff might work. If you decide affirmatively, be bold. Do not be deterred by the fact that you sometimes get caught. Yes, it is depressing to lose a bet that you could have saved, but it should be even more depressing to allow an opportunity to steal an entire pot get past you when you could have acted. Your bluffs will be profitable even if most of them fail.

It is hard to make substantial money in limit hold'em against decent opponents if you win only the pots you are entitled to. Your good hands will win for you, but their good hands will win for them, as well. One of the best ways to excel in limit hold'em is to start winning pots that should belong to someone else. First, it makes you money. Second, the satisfaction you get from stacking chips that you won by analysis and decisive action rather than just by routinely showing down the best hand makes the whole game far more enjoyable.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold'em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].