How Does He Know…?

Poker writers are forever telling you questions to ask. Typical ones are:
• What are the pot odds?
• Do I have the best hand?
• If I improve, will I have a winner?
• Should I change seats?
• How does my opponent play?
• When should I leave?
• How much should I bet?

And there are dozens of others. In fact, oftentimes the problem for less experienced but well-read players is how to figure out which questions to ask at any given time. But even with all of these questions, there is one that I believe top players often ask that I have not seen discussed before: How does he know …?

They ask this question in specific single-card situations. Your opponent bets or raises, representing a specific card (or card value). You should wonder that if he does not have the card he is representing, how can he think he will get away with it? In other words, how does he know that you don’t have it?

A recent limit hold’em hand: Here is a hand I played recently that made me think of this question. I held the K J in the big blind of a $30-$60 game. Three players limped in, then an aggressive late-position player raised. The small blind called, as did I and all of the limpers.

The flop was fairly good for me, K 2 2. Since the aggressive raiser could have a wide range of hands, there was a good chance that I was in the lead. I decided to check-raise the aggressive player. I checked, as did everyone else, and he bet. The small blind folded, and I check-raised, according to my plan. Everyone else folded except the guy to the right of the preflop raiser, who three-bet. Now, he is an excellent, thinking player. He plays a lot of hands preflop, but he plays post-flop very well. His analytical abilities are exceptional.

So, what did his raise indicate? At first glance, it should indicate that he has a king or a deuce. But he had to contend with my raise first. So, what did he think I had? My range was larger, as I could have a king, a deuce, or some middle pocket pair like 8-8, trying to knock out everyone with overcards. But the critical point here is that I could have a deuce. The three-bettor knows my game well enough to know that if I did have a deuce, I would make this same check-raise most of the time. But he three-bet into the preflop raiser. Would he do this with a mediocre king? (He could not have A-K, as he did not raise preflop.)

So, I asked myself, “How does he know I do not have a deuce?” The answer is, he couldn’t, and it didn’t seem to bother him. The most likely conclusion was that he must have a deuce himself, probably with a suited ace. He was unlikely to play any other deuce (except, rarely, K-2 suited, but he would not three-bet with the full house that hand would give him). So, after the initial raiser called, I folded. The hand continued with nothing exciting hitting the board. My analytical friend indeed showed down A-2 suited, and won the pot.

A no-limit hold’em example: You are playing $2-$5 no-limit hold’em with $600 stacks, and hold the K Q on the button. A middle-position player makes it $25 to go, and you are the only caller. On the flop of J 8 6, your opponent bets $40 and you call with your flush draw, making the pot $137. The 2 on the turn completes your flush, and you bet $100 after he checks. He calls, now making the pot $337. You have $435 left.

The river is the 5, and now your opponent moves all in. Should you call? Clearly, this is a one-card situation: Either he has the A or he doesn’t. If he does, you lose; otherwise, you win. There is $772 in the pot.

In these situations, there is always the chance that your opponent has made a desperation bluff. But very few opponents are capable of making such a play, especially in a one-card situation. Ask yourself, “How does he know I do not have the A?” If you do, his play is simply suicidal, and there is nothing in your play to suggest that you do not have it. In fact, so far, your betting indicates that you might. So, how does he know? The only way that he can know is if he holds the key card himself. Unless you know that you are up against a very tricky or crazy opponent, you should fold.

Note that in a two-card situation, it is far less certain. For example, if, when you bet the turn, your opponent check-raised all in, he could have the nut flush, or he could be making a move with the A A, or even the A K. He could even have a smaller flush, and be hoping that you do not have one.

Similar situations: Most situations that involve a single card and an aggressive action lend themselves to this sort of analysis. If you bet, and the next person raises on a final board of A-K-J-10-X, or Q-Q-5-5-X, you can be certain that most of the time he will have a queen. Unless you have played the hand in a way that makes your opponent fairly sure that you can’t have one, he has to assume that you might.

Conclusion: When you watch poker on TV, especially cash games, and you see players going into the tank in a one-card situation, one of the key questions they are asking themselves is, “How does he know?” They review their own play to look for clues. They think about whether or not this opponent, at this time, is capable of a spectacular and frequently easy-to-pick-off bluff. Oftentimes, they can make tough laydowns.

You cannot be as certain in tournament situations, because time pressure and chip pressure make some players attempt desperation bluffs that they would never try in cash games. But when playing for money, please remember that one of the questions you need to add to your repertoire is, “How does he know …?”

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].