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In a $5-$10 heads-up match, I raised to $30 with the J 5 on the button, and my opponent called from the big blind. He had about $1,500, and I had him covered.

The flop came Q 5 4, giving me middle pair. I bet $44 with my middle pair, which is actually a very strong hand here. I would bet almost anything, so this is toward the top of my range, and I think my opponent will call with any pair, some draws, and maybe even ace high.

When he raises to $166, I am not thrilled. This opponent was not the type to make a play with nothing, nor did I think he would turn a hand with showdown value into a bluff. In other words, he wouldn’t be making a pot-sized check-raise here with middle pair. He wouldn’t expect me to call with many worse hands, and it would be tough for him to play on future streets. Thus, I put him primarily on a queen, a flush draw, or the occasional stronger hand, such as two pair or a set.

To be honest, my middle pair does not have great equity against that range. I’m counting on using my position throughout the hand to zero in on my opponent’s holding and pick up additional value by inducing bluffs, folding when I am beat, and occasionally even stealing the pot from a better hand. This is a risky call that requires a firm grasp of how your opponent will play in order to show a profit. However, folding a hand as strong as middle pair to a flop check-raise in a heads-up match is dangerous, as decent opponents can quickly exploit such folds with frequent bluffing.

When the 8 comes on the turn, I know that my pair is no good. A flush draw was the only hand I could still count on beating on the flop, and now that was ahead of me, too. When my opponent checks, however, he gives me new information that helps me to further narrow his range. I had him on top pair or a flush draw. Checking the flush card tells me that he almost certainly has the queen. Or, I could have been wrong on the flop, and he may have a pure bluff that he’s now giving up.

In any event, I want to bet now. On the outside chance that I do have the best hand, I don’t want to give a free card. My pair is small, so even a hand that seems like total air could have 12-15 outs, if it includes a heart and one or two overcards to my hand.

If my only objective were to protect my hand, I would not need to bet very much at all. My opponent is probably planning to fold to any bet, even something as small as 20 percent of the pot.

However, protecting my hand is only one of my goals. I also want to set myself up to bluff out better hands on the river. If my opponent does have something like top pair or even a set, there’s a good chance that he is now going into pot-control mode, because the board has gotten scary. I expect that he will check and call the turn, but check and fold most river cards. If the river doesn’t pair the board, I intend to make another big bluff.

When sizing my turn bluff, then, I am actually trying to choose an amount that my opponent will call. Since I am planning to bluff the river anyway, I make money even when he calls with better hands on the turn, as long as they are hands that he will fold on the river. In fact, it is in my best interest to get as much money as I can into the pot from hands that will not call my river bluff.

My other objective is to set up the river bluff. Although I want to get money into the pot on the turn, I don’t want to make the pot so big that my opponent feels committed to call the river. I bet $299, just enough to leave me room for a pot-sized bluff on the river.

The river brings the very innocuous 6, my opponent checks, and I follow through with my plan by bluffing all in. Even though I have a pair, this is very much a bluff. My opponent rarely if ever has a worse hand than mine when he calls the turn, so I can’t expect to win at showdown. He does fold, and I win a $1,000 pot with the worst hand.

This hand illustrates the importance of staying flexible in your thinking. Many players will think about their hand or their plan for future streets in rigid categories. In this example, it may be tempting to say, “I have middle pair, my opponent could be bluffing, I’m going to try to show my hand down cheaply,” or, “I called the flop, planning to give up if the flush came in, the turn is a heart, I’m done with the hand.”

Thinking like that would have cost me the pot. Neither showdown value nor bluff value alone is sufficient to warrant a call on the flop. Only the ability to think creatively and adapt to new information that your opponents reveal on future streets can show a profit in a situation like this.

To watch Andrew Brokos comment on and play this hand, point your browser to Card Player Pro, the complete online poker training site, at www.CardPlayer.com/link/foucault-2.