Railbird Roundtable

Our hero, Chris “homanga” Homan, recently found himself in a seemingly standard spot with A-K. It happened somewhat early in the PokerStars weekly $250,000-guaranteed tournament on a Wednesday night. This tournament features a deep structure, with longer blinds levels and an increased buy-in of $300 + $20.

With the blinds at 150-300, and a 25 ante, the player under the gun plus one — “Booster_JJ” with 12,818 in chips — opens for 750. It is folded to the button, Eric “Sheets” Haber, who reraises to 2,400. The small blind, with 7,787, folds, and our hero is in the big blind with 8,249 and the A K.

Very often, I see players question what to do with A-K preflop in a variety of situations, and generally the answer is to get the money into the middle with as much fold equity as possible. Fold equity is the value in chips that we have by opponents folding to our raise. It is often very easily quantifiable, as in X percent of the time, they fold, and we win; in this case, 2,400 + 750 + 450 + 225, or 3,825. Therefore, we estimate the percentage of the time that they will fold to calculate our fold equity, and then we run our hand versus their calling range.

To determine fold equity, first we must determine the villain’s range right now, then determine his calling range. In this case, what is Sheets three-betting with, and what will he call our shove with? Finally, we must estimate Booster_JJ’s calling range, because he is still in the hand, and eventually we can determine whether shoving is profitable or not.

In almost every situation, shoving with A-K offsuit in spots like this is profitable. First, we often have plenty of fold equity. Second, due mostly to card removal, A-K is never far behind a calling range and is often ahead in online situations (where people are calling with A-Q and worse). As a standard, shoving is correct. In fact, when this hand was first posted on a forum, pretty much every response was some joke along the lines of, “Duh, it’s A-K, we can shove; put it in.”

However, since every situation in poker is different, let’s take a closer look at this one.

We don’t know anything about Booster_JJ. If we’re quick, we can do a search of his name on www.officialpokerrankings.com. On this site, we can learn whether or not a player is winning or losing, what his average buy-in is, and how many tournaments he has played. We can see his recent results, which can help us determine something about his mindset. For example, a player who has a 68 percent ROI (return on investment) over 1,400 tournaments with an average buy-in of $168 is going to be playing very differently than somebody who has a -42 percent ROI over 135 tournaments with an average buy-in of $57. The opening range of a solid high-stakes regular who is under the gun plus one is going to be different than that of a losing player. We’d rather play against a bad player than a good player, as he’s more likely to make mistakes.

It turns out that Booster_JJ is a winning regular; he has a 57 percent ROI over 694 tourneys with an average buy-in of $199. Since he is a winning regular, and due to stack sizes, we can make some assumptions about Sheets’ reraising range (we’re assuming that Sheets knows Booster, as he should):

1. It’s not going to be too loose. Sheets has the button and wants to use it. He would much rather play a pot in position than reraise with a marginal hand. By reraising preflop, he gives the villain a great opportunity to four-bet shove, due to stack sizes, completely taking away Sheets’ positional advantage. Therefore, he’s not reraising with 6-6, K-Q, or anything like that.

2. By reraising to 2,400, Sheets is committing himself to a shove from either of the blinds. Since he will be getting greater than 2-1 on his money, we can safely assume that Sheets, a winning online regular, will be calling. There is always a slight chance that they will fold, because sometimes players will feign strength with bet-sizing, but generally this is not the case.

This is good news and bad news for us. The bad news is that we can’t reasonably expect to win this pot preflop. The good news is that if his reraising range includes A-Q, we become a slight favorite and he’s calling, so we’d be getting it in ahead with dead money, which is always good.

Lastly, we can use history and knowledge of a player to help determine ranges. I know that Sheets respects early-position raises and understands position, which will factor into my estimation of his ranges.

These preflop spots are mostly mathematical. Most players have similar ranges in similar spots, and many things, like shoving A-K preflop, become automatic. However, “poker” comes into play with the player; the conditional probability introduced by the human element will skew ranges.

So, all of this considered, what range can we reasonably give to Sheets, since that is the factor upon which this decision hinges? A-A to Q-Q, and A-K, for sure, although he may flat [flat-call] with some of these hands to try to induce a squeeze from one of the blinds. What about A-Q? J-J? 10-10? Air? Any other hand? Since he has position, he’s going to flat most of his playable hands. Since he’s facing a stack that can four-bet shove easily, and because of the blinds’ stack sizes (they might squeeze lightly), he’s probably flatting with 10-10 and J-J, also. Given those things, do we think he’s going to reraise with A-Q? Probably not.

Therefore, Sheets’ most likely range is A-A to Q-Q, and A-K — only. Here’s how we fare against that range: 38.8 percent. That’s not good at all, and it’s not a spot in which we want to be putting in our money. If we add A-Q to the range, we become a 51.3 percent favorite, and adding J-J drops us to 50.1 percent.

We have A-K. I want to put it in, too. I know for a fact that I would have done so in the heat of the moment. But when I take the time to break this hand down, it’s clearly not a good spot. We have very little, if any, fold equity. We’re facing a range against which we’re 51.3 percent, at best. And, there’s a third player in the hand whom we’ve completely forgotten about, who raised from under the gun plus one, and is going to call our shove a certain percentage of the time. This number is bigger than most people think: How wide is his opening range, and what percentage of that range is Q-Q+ and A-K? Obviously, sometimes he’ll fold Q-Q or A-K. I don’t see him folding K-K here.

This is a spot where I see a lot of live pros just fold, as they are scared to take a coin flip. While Sheets is probably a fairly tight player, I am sure he knows that he can reraise fairly wide in spots like this and take it down without a showdown. Because of that, A-K is basically the nuts. Also, we essentially have the perfect stack to push here, as he cannot call unless he does have a premium hand. Unfortunately, pushing here will bust us from time to time, but on average, it is a huge +EV [positive expected value] play. — Jonathan Little

I shove here, for a couple of reasons. I’m not worried about the early-position raiser, for the simple reason that opening ranges are so wide these days in higher buy-in online tourneys, and the early-position raise of 2.5 times the big blind is the “new” button raise, it seems. I’m more scared about the button’s three-bet, but he is probably just taking the initiative on the hand, since it’s his button and he’s in position. Flatting on the button with A-A and K-K is also very common lately; hence, I like a big-blind shove even more in this spot, since the button’s range is still pretty wide, as well. So, in sum, I think this is a no-brainer shove for our hero. — Jon Friedberg

I am light here extremely rarely. There would have to be a lot of things happening at once to make me three-bet light with those stacks. If I knew anything about the big blind, I might flat with K-K and A-A, but to be honest, I think that would be somewhat transparent. I am thinking of what I would flat from the button here except A-A and K-K, and that’s rare. I can’t quite think of anything. Whether it’s optimal or not, I promise you that is reality. If Booster had 16,000 or maybe more, things are different, obviously.
So, what is my range for three-betting if I am not light? Am I three-betting and calling with A-Q and 8-8 here? If so, it’s a trivial shove. If I am folding A-Q, 8-8, and sometimes 9-9, it’s probably a fold. — Eric “Sheets” Haber

I think we are all of the mindset that picking up a hand like A-K in the big blind with around 20 big blinds is essentially a perfect situation. It’s so perfect that the thought of folding probably never crosses our minds, yet in hindsight, looking over what was once a dream scenario, I now realize it was a nightmare. As the action played out in the hand, the early raise was not really so bothersome; it meant a higher probability that I would be called when I shoved from the big blind with A-K. It all changes, however, when Sheets decides to reraise from the button; a once trivial shove actually becomes a trivial fold. The reason is that the original raiser, Booster_JJ, is only 40 big blinds deep, making Sheets’ raising range much tighter, as he is highly unlikely to three-bet and then fold in this situation. This being the case, we can eliminate many hands from Sheets’ range with which he would just flat-call Booster’s raise. Hands like 9-9, 10-10, J-J, and A-Q would not be reraised here, as Sheets would have to call. So, all of a sudden, Sheets’ range is polarized down to A-K and pocket queens or better, against which A-K does not have near enough equity to shove with no expectation of Sheets folding. While in the heat of the moment it seems impossible to lay down A-K here, it actually becomes quite an easy fold, knowing that such a solid opponent as Sheets is rarely going to get out of line. — Chris Homan

It turns out that our hero shoved, and Sheets had A-A.

Bryan “Devo” Devonshire has been a professional since the fall of 2003, after going jobless in Colorado. An expert wilderness guide with a specialization in white-water rafting, he got his start propping a $2-$5 spread-limit game in Cripple Creek, Colorado, while serving on Search and Rescue. He hit the tournament scene in 2006, taking second in his first-ever World Series of Poker event; to date, he has cashed for more than $800,000 live and more than $380,000 online. A Southern California native and Las Vegas resident, he can be reached at [email protected].