Pricing the Peel

To peel or not to peel on the flop? It’s a question that frequently comes up in limit hold’em. The answer, of course, is: It depends! People tend to think of poker in an “if this, then that” kind of decision-making matrix, defined by the simplicity of its limited number of hands and the five poker actions — check, bet, call, raise, fold. After all, with only five choices, how complicated can it be?

But there are literally millions of data points to be considered in the decision-making process, and only a moment in which to analyze the positives and negatives to determine the correct action.

Quantifying when to take one off or to fold will add or subtract small edges to your expectation that will, over time, add up to significant expectation due to the frequency of the situation. Thinking the concepts through ahead of time will give you edge at the point of decision, because having considered the question in advance, you will be able to devote your limited time to act to more variables.

On my first hand in a $30-$60 limit hold’em game, I posted behind the button. The field folded to the player two to my right, who raised it to $60, and the player to my immediate right hit it again, making it $90. I looked down at the Q Q and fired it up to four bets. The button and the blinds folded, and we took the flop off three-handed for four bets.

The flop came clean for me, 10 8 5; no flush draws and no overcards. Both of my opponents checked to me, and I fired $30 into the pot. It was now on the opener, who had the choice of taking one off or folding.

He held the K J and had open-raised preflop, a play in which the value was enhanced by having an additional blind in the pot. There’s also value in leaning on the guy who just sat down — if that guy isn’t me holding pocket queens! With a hand like K-J offsuit, when there’s a three-bet and a four-bet behind you, the likelihood of your holding being crippled by hands that dominate you is great. A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K, and A-J all have one or both of your cards dead. Thus, the likelihood of the opener’s opponents to hold one of those hands was high.

When it is multiple bets to you, and sometimes when it is a single bet, folding your hand preflop when you feel that you are highly likely to be dominated is often the correct play. Quantifying exactly when to fold and when to call is difficult; it is mostly a matter of feel. Conceptually, the greater the chance your hand will get you in trouble, and the smaller the pot, the more often you should fold.

And the opener had to play the hand from where he stood at that moment, facing my $30 bet in a $440 pot with an aggressor yet to act behind him. He had a new decision to make, which is part of the problem of playing trouble hands in the first place. Trouble hands tend to put you to tough decisions, which is even more true in no-limit hold’em. He was getting about 14.6-1 on his call. That said, he might get raised, thereby reducing the price the pot offered him. Plus, he might be drawing thin to dead!

Acquiring a feel for quantifying poker equations such as this takes a lot of experience. One method of analyzing equations like this one is to estimate the range of hands that your opponent(s) might hold, compare the possible combinations against each other, estimate the likelihood of your opponent possessing any of the holdings, then analyze how your hand plays against that range, blending the equation to include all plausible scenarios.

There are 16 combinations of unpaired high cards (12 offsuit and one suited combination of each suit) and six combinations of all pairs. Of course, you must adjust for any seen cards.

If I the four-bettor held a wired pair of tens or higher, or A-K, the range that Mr. Opener was facing from me would be 12 combinations of A-K (since he held a king), six of A-A and Q-Q, three of K-K and J-J (since he held a king and a jack), and three of 10-10 (since there was one on the board). Against A-K, Q-Q, and J-J, he possessed three outs; against A-A, K-K, and 10-10, he was drawing to hit twice, and a limited twice in some cases. Plus, he could get re-outdrawn even if he did hit.

Since he was more than 15-1 to hit one of his outs when he was up against hands that he held three outs to win, and was a much greater dog to hit two runners, added to the fact that the three-bettor could check-raise and have his hand crippled, he wouldn’t be correct to take one off. That said, he did, and caught a king and won the pot.

I run the rough numbers quickly every time I am confronted by a large-pot decision, and most times, regardless of the pot size. I don’t do any exact mathematics. Honestly, I don’t have the brainpower to exactly quantify a situation. I keep things simple, price the call, and see if I can quantify whether or not I have crossed the threshold of correct/incorrect. Sometimes I can quantify a situation, and sometimes I can’t; when I can’t, I just go with my best educated guess.

But thinking about these things ahead of time helps to keep me in the money.

Longtime poker pro and author Roy Cooke’s Card Player column has appeared since 1992. A successful Las Vegas real estate broker since 1990, his website is www.roycooke.com. Should you wish to inquire regarding real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his phone number is (702) 396-6575. Roy’s longtime collaborator John Bond’s website is www.johnbondwriting.com. Find John and Roy on Facebook.