Breaking the Code

I have never met Erik Seidel, though I am aware of his poker expertise and eight World Series of Poker bracelets. One of the first things I heard about him, many years ago, was, “The thing about Erik is that after he plays with you for 15 minutes, he begins to develop a counterstrategy tailored just for you.”

And that is your job, as well. The gateway skill to winning poker at higher levels is reading hands. And to read hands, you must become a code-breaker.

This column will discuss what I mean by code-breaking in poker, and I will add some thoughts about how to do it. Start with the premise that every player has a strategy that he has developed for how to play the game. Most players play a certain way because they think it is the right way to play.

To take a simple example, pretty much everyone has criteria for what they will open with under the gun in a full limit hold’em game. For some, the range is exquisitely tiny — perhaps A-A, K-K, Q-Q, and A-K. For others, it may be any pair, ace, or any two Broadway cards. For some optimistic souls, it is anything they happen to be dealt. Within most of these ranges, there are hands with which they raise and hands with which they call. One of your jobs as a code-breaker is to figure out what each person’s range is for opening and raising.

Of course, that detective work extends to every position, to calling, to calling raises, to three-betting, and so on. And that is just before the flop. Code-breaking becomes more complex as the hand progresses, but the results are much more important, as you can narrow down ranges.

The bad news: The major problem is that you cannot break the codes of someone who plays a lot better than you do. Since his thought process is deeper than yours, you will be unable to fathom his thoughts and discern his reasons for playing the way that he is playing.

For example, a friend of mine learned to play, like most of us do, by following the content of a basic book. On occasion, someone made a play that he did not understand because it was not in his book, like three-betting preflop with K-9 or raising from the big blind with pocket fours. When he saw this, he naturally assumed that these players were making significant errors because they were not playing the way that he was taught.

Luckily, he was insatiably curious and had some excellent mentors. When he described these plays, usually in the context of how stupid the perpetrator was, he learned that these plays are in fact legitimate under some circumstances. As his understanding grew, he started incorporating these plays into his repertoire, and is now a feared high-limit player.

And that’s the good news that goes with the bad. Although you will not be able to break the codes of those who are thinking about the game on a deeper level than you, by paying attention, you can eventually figure out why they are doing what they do, and therefore improve your own game.

Some examples: Let’s start with the river, which often is heads up; this of course simplifies things. You need to know if your opponent will bet for value or will bet just his strongest hands. Will he bluff, bluff-raise, or bluff check-raise? You need to know, because the many players who do none of these things are much easier to play against. In fact, extremely few players ever bluff check-raise on the end, yet many river calls are based on the theory that the opponent may be doing just that often enough to justify the pot odds of calling.

When they are in one of the blinds, some players will bluff on a flop of three small cards, hoping that no one has connected with the ragged flop. Some will auto-bluff the turn if everyone has checked the flop. Others will always have value for any of these actions. Clearly, it will help you greatly to distinguish between the two.

Some believe they should check-raise the flop after a late-position bet with any pair. Some think they need two pair or better, while others with two pair or better will always wait for the turn to spring their trap. Still others will do so with a draw. And, of course, some will check-raise the flop with any of these hands, and occasionally nothing at all.

Player codes are not confined to just normal actions. Some otherwise tight, rational players will raise the next hand after a bad beat. They just want their money back now. Knowing who they are and when they will suddenly make this out-of-character play will help you make some amazing counterplays.

Advanced players have more complex codes, as they tend to tailor their play to the situation and tendencies of their opponents. They may stretch to play when weak players are in the pot, and fold otherwise-playable hands when strong players are present. They may try to bluff players they suspect are capable of folding, but would never bluff under any other circumstances. You can understand their play, but you must first work to recognize the characteristics of the opponents as they perceive them.

How do you do all of this? Start with excellent focus, concentration, and memory. Add lots of observation, hypothesis testing, and hard work. Focus on one player at a time. If you try to crack everyone’s code, you will probably become confused. Start with the easier players to read, as it makes your job simpler and helps you gain confidence, and they should prove to be your greatest source of profit.

Conclusion: Several years ago, I played $20-$40 limit hold’em with pretty much the same cast of characters several days a week. After a period of years, I got to the point where I believed that you could put me in any seat and instruct me to play exactly as any one of these players would, and I could do a passable job of it. I might have gotten a few things wrong, but I had a good overall idea of how everyone approached most situations.

This is your goal. Do you know how a player sees the game? Why is he there? When does he get angry and stray from his usual style? What holding does he need to lead into a field? Will he semibluff with a flush draw, or check and hope to see the turn cheaply? And so on.

The closer you can get to breaking his code, the more effective you will be as his opponent — and that should be your goal.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].