‘Easy’ Things to Do to Win at Poker — Part IV

In my last column, I continued the discussion of things you should do at the table to help you make better decisions. I used the following list:
• Pay more attention
• Select the best games
• Learn how your opponents play
• Study betting patterns
• Analyze every situation
• Plan in advance
• Play focused on the game
• Count the pot
• Compute the odds
• Figure out how the play might go
• Estimate what your opponents think you hold and how you should respond
• Then, make a decision

That column discussed learning how your opponents play (all columns in this series are available at www.CardPlayer.com). It dealt with several non-card-related aspects of studying opponents. This column will deal with a critical card-related one, studying your opponents’ (and your own) betting patterns.

Study betting patterns: Before we talk about poker, let’s discuss something that we all have seen in movies. Someone hires a contract killer to do away with someone else. The killer launches into a study of the intended victim, and learns a key fact: He gets a haircut every Tuesday at the same barber shop, or he always jogs in the park at 6:30 a.m., or he always drives the same route home from his weekly poker game. The killer then plans his crime around the intended victim’s routine schedule.

Actually, the killer is discovering a pattern in his intended victim’s behavior, then using that pattern to exploit him. While poker is not a criminal activity (despite what some government entities believe), and no one is injured, other than in the wallet, one method of gaining an edge is quite similar: You look for patterns in your opponents’ play, then use them to make better decisions.

A famous story: My recollection is hazy, but I recall a story about a hand that Doyle Brunson played several years ago. His opponent raised preflop, and Doyle reraised. Doyle had a pair of queens, and called when his opponent pushed all in. Onlookers were surprised, as this was a huge pot, and Doyle would be a significant underdog if he was up against pocket aces or kings. Doyle later explained that this particular opponent always limped as a trap when he held aces or kings.

Now, limping with aces and kings in no-limit hold’em, especially in a head-up situation, can be an excellent tactic. Opponents assume that you cannot have such a fine hand if you did not raise. But always limping in that situation gives an observant opponent too much of an edge, which Doyle used to win a huge pot.

So, what patterns should you look for? There is an almost infinite number, but let’s take a look at some that many players hold in common.
Before the flop:
• Three-betting only with aces (or aces and kings)
• Open-limping with small or medium pocket pairs exclusively from under the gun
• Open-limping and then reraising only with pocket aces
• Raising out of the big blind only with pocket aces

On the flop: Play on the flop offers a richer variety of patterns. For example, there are players who will never check-raise. If they check, they will always either call or fold. You can expand your range of hands to bet in position against these players, as you will never be risking any more chips on this round.

Other players will bet, but if raised, they will always call and check the turn. If they have a strong hand, they will wait for the turn and hope to check-raise, and if they have a weak hand, they will just call and hope to improve. These players are excellent candidates for free-card plays. If you need one, you can almost always count on getting it.

Some players will always bet if everyone checks and they are last to act. Even if they have no hand, no draw, no prayer, they still optimistically put out a bet. You can check-raise these guys all day long, and you should.

Most folks always check to the raiser, but some don’t. It is important to discover what they lead into the raiser with. Many of these bettors require two pair or better, while others are happy to bluff. Figuring out which type they are may take a while, but it is worth it.

A minority of players tend to call the flop with any two cards. It is important to know who they are, so that you don’t read too much into their calls and give up your aggression on the turn.

On the turn: Again, there are players who will always bet if you check to them. You can exploit this tendency over and over again.

One of the most important patterns to figure out is, what does a turn raise mean? For some, it can have a variety of meanings, but for others, it means only that they have a very good hand. You can save a lot of money if you know who these others are.

Similarly, what does a turn check-raise mean? Oftentimes it means a very powerful hand that could risk giving a free card for the advantage of trapping you into calling an extra bet. If that is the only thing it can mean, you can safely release many hands.

Let’s say that you have been the aggressor, the turn card is scary, and your opponent leads into you. Does he have what he is representing? Some players always do, and, remarkably, others never do, preferring to check-raise when they really have it. Once you can identify these pretenders, raise them.

On the river: One of the most important patterns emerges on the river. Some players never bluff. They either do not believe in it or just hate to lose money if they get called. In any event, you can make much more secure laydowns against them.

Others will never bluff-raise. Still others will lead at any scare card when they were planning to call anyway. This is not a bad play, but you may want to throw in a few raises or bluff-raises against them, as they often are betting light and may fold to the pressure.

These are examples of patterns that appear over and over again. It takes time and careful, repeated observation to ferret them out and reach proper conclusions. And sometimes you will be surprised when an opponent whom you thought you had pegged does something you never expected. That’s inevitable, and you should not let it bother you too much. Just make a mental note that you misunderstood this player, and then observe him again. Remember that poker can be hard work, but the work involved in discovering even a few predictable patterns can greatly improve your profits.

And remember to vary your own play enough that others will not be able to find predictable patterns. Observing yourself is an equally important part of paying attention at the table. You must “scout yourself.”

Next issue, we will move on to a discussion of analyzing situations.

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies, both available at www.CardPlayer.com. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].