Continuation-Bets

I never heard the term “continuation-bet” used in the 20th century. I first encountered it in one of Dan Harrington’s poker books, but don’t know who coined the term. However, the concept of the continuation-bet has been around probably as long as the game itself.

A continuation-bet is a flop wager by the preflop raiser. The preflop raiser has “said” that he thinks he has the best preflop hand. Hold’em math says that in a heads-up confrontation, whoever is ahead before the flop is likely to still be ahead after the flop, because any hold’em hand is going to improve no more than about a third of the time. So, the continuation-bet by the preflop raiser asks a simple question: “Did your hand improve on the flop?” The implication is that if the opponent’s hand did not improve, the preflop raiser is still ahead. The continuation-bet math is relied upon by aggressive players who are constantly raising preflop and firing on the flop.

I first learned to play hold’em by reading Doyle Brunson’s book Super/System. Doyle said that he always bet the flop when he had raised the pot going in. I followed that advice for several years, as long as there was not a slew of opponents still in the hand. Eventually, I backed off from being so rigid. I learned that what works for some star poker player may not work that well for me. We all are individuals, and as such, we need weapons that are compatible with our total arsenal. A helicopter does not need an aircraft carrier for its home landing base. I also learned that the word “never” should not be incorporated into my poker vocabulary. Never say never. The preceding sentence is illogical, but still not bad advice.

A poker player needs to vary his game if he is playing regularly with a particular opponent or group of players. It certainly makes sense that an opponent who is familiar with your game should not be able to rely on your making a continuation-bet every time that you raise preflop. Predictable behavior of this type enables the opponent to smooth-call your preflop raise when holding a big pair with more confidence of getting paid off, or to check when acting first on the flop with assurance of getting the opportunity to check-raise. It is tempting to bet any flop in a heads-up situation, but it’s not an automatic play.

My sweetest memory of eschewing a continuation-bet and getting a great result is from a hand on the evening of the first day of the 1987 World Series of Poker main event. I was on the button and open-raised with A-3 offsuit, hoping to steal the blinds. In the big blind was Dewey Tomko, one of the best high-stakes professional no-limit hold’em players of that era. Dewey, a friend of mine and a frequent opponent in Florida no-limit home games, had nerves of steel. He told me that he had once played a round of golf for a million dollars. “But I only had a third of my action,” he explained, as if trying to downplay the occasion. Dewey called my preflop raise, so we were heads up.

The flop came something like 10-5-2 (I am unsure of the top card), and Dewey checked. It is obviously tempting to bet a ragged flop that probably helped neither of us, but some of my thoughts pushed me in a more cowardly direction. Here is what went through my mind to favor a check:

• I could take a free card, with the chance of hitting the gutshot.
• A check would let the other players see that I did not mechanically bet the flop, so perhaps my flop bets would get a little more respect in the future.
• I was not looking to play a big pot against a tough opponent when I held not much more than a bluff.
• Dewey was not calling a raise out of position preflop simply to defend his blind. He held a real hand, and probably one good enough to call a continuation-bet.

I checked. The turn card was my dream — a 4, to give me a wheel. Obviously, Dewey had not called preflop with a 6-3, so I held the nuts. Dewey bet into me. It was tempting to smooth-call, but there was now a two-flush on the board. The river could give him a flush if he had bet because he picked up a flush draw. A three-flush on the river might kill my action. He could hold a small set, in which case I would need to protect my hand. So, I decided to raise. Dewey thought for a long time, then reraised me all in with 4-4. Fortunately, the board did not pair, so I doubled up and knocked Dewey out of the event.

My philosophy regarding continuation-bets is similar to the excellent column about continuation-bets in Omaha by Jeff Hwang that appeared in the Vol. 23/No. 9 issue of Card Player. (Of course, you make a continuation-bet in Omaha less frequently, because the flops on which everyone has an unplayable hand are fewer.) The percentage of occasions in which you make a continuation-bet varies, and it depends more on the texture of the flop and the number of opponents than any other factors. Let’s look at some flops, and determine whether or not you should make a continuation-bet if you missed.

K 7 2: This is an ideal flop for the preflop raiser. The hand that your opponents fear most is A-K, so a continuation-bet is in order the majority of the time. However, I notice that in a low-stakes game such as $1-$2 blinds, the bad players call preflop raises with K-Q, K-J, and even worse, so be wary of betting into three or more opponents in these low-stakes affairs. Against aggressive or tricky opponents, you can check such a flop and come to life later, whether you have hit or not, because there is no draw on the board.

K 7 2: A flush draw increases the chance that you will get called, but I am inclined to bet this flop into two or three opponents, although a larger field scares me.

K J 4: Two cards in the playing zone such as K-J, especially suited, increases the possibility of running into a hand. I seldom bet a flop like this into more than two opponents unless I have something.

J 10 3: This is a very dangerous flop, and I would rarely bet it into multiple opponents. I think of cards such as aces, kings, and queens as being in the “raiser’s zone,” and cards such as jacks, tens, and nines as being in the “caller’s zone.” I usually bet such a flop when heads up, but betting is not automatic. Obviously, a flop like this, with no cards in the raiser’s zone and two cards in the caller’s zone, is one that you should seldom bet into a multiple-player field without a decent hand.

9 7 3: When it looks like no one improved, you can risk a bet into two or maybe three opponents.

Bob Ciaffone has authored four poker books, Middle Limit Holdem Poker, Pot-limit and No-limit Poker, Improve Your Poker, and Omaha Poker. All can be ordered (autographed to you) from Bob by e-mail: [email protected]. Free U.S. shipping to Card Player readers. Ciaffone is available for poker lessons at a reasonable rate. His website is www.pokercoach.us, where you can get his rulebook, Robert’s Rules of Poker, for free. Bob also has a website called www.fairlawsonpoker.org.