Playing Top Pair for Value

In my last column, I argued that top pair is a critical hold’em hand because you make it frequently and because its value can vary widely from quite strong to nearly worthless. If you systematically overvalue or undervalue the hand, you’ll end up with some bad results.

I divided top-pair hands roughly into two categories: those that you play for value and those that behave like bluff catchers. Last time, I discussed the unfortunate top-pair hands that become bluff catchers. This column is about playing top pair for value.

When you flop top pair, you can usually begin playing as if you likely have the best hand. Sure, if you have 9-2 in the big blind of a nine-handed pot on a 9-8-7 flop, you don’t have squat. But these sorts of top-pair hands are uncommon even in loose games. More typically, you have a hand like K-J on a king-high board against two opponents. In that case, you can assume that you have the best hand until an opponent shows strength.

Most hold’em players have at least that much figured out. But after betting the flop, people lose their way a bit. Specifically, many players are too timid with top pair in two ways: They don’t push their high-value top pairs hard enough, and they don’t go for last-ditch value on the river.

High-Value Top Pairs

Some top-pair hands are worth more than others. When you have top pair, you want opponents with weaker hands to call you. Weaker hands can be other top pairs with weaker kickers, flopped pairs worse than top pair, unimproved pocket pairs, or drawing hands. The more weak hands your opponents can have, the more your top pair is worth.

Compare A-K on an A-10-7 flop to A-9 on a 9-8-8 flop. The first top pair is a high-value top pair; the second is not. On the first board, a large number of weaker hands will call you: weaker aces, some tens and sevens, unimproved pocket pairs like Q-Q, and straight draws like Q-J and 9-8. Some of these hands, particularly the weaker aces, appear strong enough that many players will call two or even three bets with them.

On the second board, the only weaker hands that will likely call even one bet are nines with a lower kicker and straight draws like J-10. Not only will few weaker hands call, but those hands have more equity, on average, as well. For instance, J-10 can catch a queen, jack, 10, or 7 to beat you. This is a relatively low-value top pair.

Many live-action no-limit hold’em players are far too timid with high-value top pairs. A-K on an A-10-7 flop can win a big pot against another ace, and a medium-size pot against weaker pairs and draws. But many players are content to put one half-hearted bet out there, and if called, check the rest of the hand down. That’s not aggressive enough. Push these hands for more value. A decent rule of thumb is to assume that your opponent has the hand just worse than yours. Think about how much he’d call with that hand, and then bet to extract that amount.

For example, it’s a $2-$5 game with $1,000 stacks. You open with the A K for $20 from five off the button. Two players call behind you, and the big blind calls.

The flop comes A 10 7. The big blind checks to you, and you bet $80. The next player calls, and the other two fold.

The turn is the 5. A-Q is the hand just weaker than your hand. How much would a player with A-Q call? Most opponents would call at least a few hundred dollars more. Some players would go broke with A-Q. As long as you don’t get raised, however, you should aim to bet at least a few hundred dollars more between the turn and the river. You’ll win a nice pot against anyone with a weaker ace, and you will also pick up some cheap bucks from players who won’t lay down a draw. You’ll also, unfortunately, run into a big hand sometimes. But in this situation, you are more likely to be ahead of something like A-J or A-3 than be behind.

Theoretically speaking, assuming that your opponent always has the hand just weaker than yours will have you playing too aggressively. But if you tend to play timidly with your high-value top-pair hands, I’m more worried about that than I am about you potentially becoming too wild and crazy. So, I recommend using the “one hand weaker than yours” standard for aggression until you get comfortable with pushing high-value top pairs hard for value.

With low-value top pairs like A-9 on a 9-8-8 board, you should play cautiously. You probably already play OK in these situations. Just remember how to tell the strong top pairs from the so-so ones; count the hands you beat that will call you. The more there are, the harder you can push.

Last-Ditch Value

The river is the money round in no-limit hold’em, yet most live no-limit players will simply check top pair down on the river. These players are missing tons of last-ditch value for their hands. Here’s an example:

It’s a $2-$5 game with $1,000 stacks. You raise a limper to $25 with the K J from one off the button. The blinds fold, and the limper calls. The flop comes 10 7 2. Your opponent checks, you bet $35, and he calls. The turn is the 8. Your opponent checks, and you check. The river is the K. Your opponent checks.

Many players check it down here, and that’s just throwing value away. Given all the checking, your top pair is almost certainly good. Bet it for value! You will get called regularly, and you have little to lose, since you’re so likely to have the best hand.

How much to bet depends a little on how suspicious your opponent is. I’d generally make a bet of at least two-thirds of the pot, or about $80 in this hand. Against particularly suspicious players, I might bet the pot or even more.

If you’re used to checking in this situation, you may be asking yourself, “What worse hands will call?” Principally, I’d expect to see tens at showdown. But you’ll also get the occasional curious call from a hand like 9-8 or 6-6. Overall, this is a very profitable betting situation, so don’t miss it.

Conclusion

Top pair is a pivotal hand. In some situations, it’s a high-value hand that you should push for value on two or three betting rounds. In other situations, it’s a mere bluff catcher that you should fold. If your opponent is showing strength, top pair is often no good. And if your top pair is a low-value one on a board offering few possible weaker holdings, it isn’t worth much. But when it’s a high-value top pair, push it for value. And when you’ve gotten to the river and your opponent has shown no willingness to bet, top pair can earn you plenty of last-ditch value.

Ed’s latest book, Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em, is available for purchase at smallstakesnolimitholdem.com. He is a featured coach at cardrunners.com, and you can also check out his online poker advice column, notedpokerauthority.com.