Adjusting to Acquire the Most Value

How to bet your draws in limit hold’em is always defined by the situation’s dynamics. Being adept at adjusting your play based on quantifying the value in betting, calling, or checking your draws is key to obtaining the most from them.
Many players have a rigid strategy for playing their draws. They bet all of their flush draws but don’t bet straight draws. Or, they bet straight draws only if no flush draw is present, and so on. But calculating the highest-equity play is more complicated. Much of the value in betting your draws is in the fact that your opponents may fold and you’ll win the pot without making your hand. The probability that your bluff will succeed and how the betting (both yours and your opponents’) will affect your draw’s price are the key immediate concerns. Calculating the value of those factors is no easy matter. It involves both being able to read your opponents’ hands and knowing their tendencies.
It was the day after Thanksgiving, and I was enjoying the $30-$60 limit hold’em holiday-weekend action at Bellagio. The game was mostly weak-passive, except for one local pro sitting directly behind me who was in his usual highly aggressive mode.
Several weak-loose players had limped in and I looked down to see the 8♣ 6♣. The situation was ripe for a call with this suited one-gapper. Suited hands play better in volume pots with loose-passive players. The fact that they tend to call more and raise less enables you to both draw to your hand cheaply and get action if you make a big hand, increasing your hand’s equity. I called the single bet, and it was immediately raised by Mr. Aggressive Pro directly behind me. One of the blinds called, as did all of the limpers, and we took the flop six-handed.
The flop was very favorable for my hand, 10♦ 7♣ 3♣, giving me a gutshot-straight draw and an 8-high flush draw. The field checked to me, and I had to determine whether to check or bet.
Due to the volume of players and their loose calling styles, I thought that I had no chance to win this pot without making the best hand. That being true, I focused on getting the best risk/reward ratio on my post-flop bets. I considered the tendencies of Mr. Aggressive Pro, with whom I have played a lot of poker and know well. He often raises preflop with position to get free cards in volume fields. He also tends to raise with overcards and/or draws on the flop if he feels that he can get a free card on the turn. He definitely would raise with any legitimate hand if I led. Against most of his hand range, I was going to get raised if I bet. That said, if I checked, he would check all of the non-pair, non-draw hands in his range.
So, what should I do? While my hand had value against six players, I didn’t want to bet and have Mr. Aggressive Pro raise and shut out the rest of the field. Since I had to make a hand to win, and my cards would make either a big hand or nothing, I wanted as many players as possible in the pot, thereby giving me the best price on my draw. I checked, and Mr. Aggressive Pro fired out a bet. All of the field except one called. I rejected check-raising as an option, even though I had four opponents. The possibility that an opponent held a higher flush draw or that Mr. Aggressive Pro would reraise, thereby eliminating my “customers,” restrained me.
The turn card was a thing of beauty, the A♣, giving me a flush. Having the ace of your suit on the board when you make a non-nut flush adds value to your holding, as players play the ace of a suit more than any other rank of card. Therefore, when the ace of your suit shows up, the odds of someone having a higher flush are greatly reduced.
The field checked to me, and I considered check-raising. However, since I thought that Mr. Aggressive Pro would check all A-K and A-Q type of hands on the flop, the only hands that he would bet would be A-A, a flopped set, a flush, or two pair made with the ace. He would check a wider portion of his potential hand range, making a check-raise an underdog to succeed. Also, I didn’t want to give a hand containing a higher club that might fold to a bet a free shot to beat me. I tossed in a wager, and was called by Mr. Aggressive Pro and two others.
The river was the 9♥, giving me a meaningless straight, as I already had a flush. Everyone checked to me, and I bet again. I was called by Mr. Aggressive Pro, and overcalled by another opponent. I showed my hand. Mr. Aggressive Pro disgustedly tossed wired tens faceup into the muck, looking for sympathy, and of course got none. The other caller folded.
The pot intuitively seemed several bets short to me. Had I gotten the best value possible from my hand? I reviewed my decisions. Had I known that Mr. Aggressive Pro held a set, I would have check-raised the turn, but I had no way of knowing that. I still think leading on the turn was correct, based on my read of his possible hand range. Since in hindsight I knew that he held a set, checking the flop was the correct play from a results standpoint, because it prevented him from cutting off other callers with a raise. More importantly, checking was also correct from an equity standpoint, based on Mr. Aggressive Pro’s potential range of hands and my knowledge of his tendencies. My selection of strategies got me the most equity that I could get from my holding, based on the information available to me at each point of decision. That is all I can ever ask of myself.
When analyzing how to play your draws, keep in mind how the hand will play. If there is little or no chance that you will win the pot as a bluff, the semibluffing value of a bet is diminished. If an opponent is likely to raise and cut off other opponents, making a play that positions him to do so will reduce the odds that you’ll receive on your draw. That said, in some cases, eliminating opponents may increase your odds of winning the pot. Execute the play that gives you the highest equity value on your hand in the current situation.
Always keep in mind how a hand will play out, based on your read of your opponents’ tendencies. That will improve the value that you’ll receive from not only your drawing hands, but every hand that you play. ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas real-estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to get any information about real-estate matters — including purchase, sale, or mortgage — his office number is (702) 396-6575, and his e-mail address is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You also may find him on Facebook.