Mind Over Poker: The Flexible Float

In poker, we often have to make decisions on the fly. Most of us are well-versed in doing this, based on various factors. For instance, a turn card can dramatically affect a hand if it pairs the board or makes a flush or straight possible. Or, an opponent’s betting action can require a change on the fly. There are, however, plenty of other subtle scenarios in which adjustments are required to minimize variance and/or maximize value. I experienced one of these hands the other night, and I believe that I was able to both minimize variance and maximize value.
Here’s the tournament situation: With the blinds at 100-200, a player in middle position raised to 600. I called from late position with A-5 suited. I called because I had position and the player who open-raised was fairly predictable. Both blinds called, and we saw a flop four-handed. The flop came 9-4-2 rainbow, with one of my suit. The small blind led out with a bet of 500, which was quite small into a pot of 2,400. Both the big blind and the original raiser folded. That left me with an interesting decision. I was fairly sure that the small blind was making a feeler bet and wasn’t that strong.
There was now 2,900 in the pot, and it would cost me only 500 to call. Plus, I had position. I just couldn’t justify giving up on this pot so easily. I decided to float him and see what developed. My plan was to chase him off the hand on the turn. So, I called. The turn brought an ace, and my opponent checked. I felt that my initial thoughts about the hand were justified. I had floated and was in prime position to take the hand down. My opponent seemed resigned to giving up on the hand.
Now, however, I changed my thinking. Did I want to take the hand down now? Plus, if the ace helped my opponent, which I had to recognize as a possibility, I was way behind. He could have made two pair if he had played A-9, A-4, or A-2. So, I decided to check. If I was behind, I was saving a few bets. If I was ahead, I might induce a bluff on the river, which I thought was more likely. Either way, I thought my opponent would bet the river, and I would call. The river brought a blank, and my opponent bet 1,000, which I called. He had pocket fives, and I dragged the pot.
In hindsight, I think that I played the hand very well. My original intention of floating would have worked if a blank had come on the turn. The fact that the ace came caused me to flex my float, and I induced a bluff on the river. These little subtle adjustments add up on the felt. ♠