The Truth About Coin Flips

I have read a number of things about coin flips in no-limit hold’em lately. There are problems with most of what is being written. I really should say errors, but I want to give my fellow authors a break so that they will be a little nicer about my errors. The advice that I’ve read isn’t always the same; it’s usually somewhere between the gentle, “Try to avoid coin flips early in tournaments,” and a stronger dictum that can be summed up as, “Avoid all coin flips, in both tournaments and cash games, at all times.” What is the problem with these ideas?
1. They don’t define coin flips.
2. You generally should welcome them, not avoid them.
3. Even if you decide, incorrectly, that you want to avoid coin flips, no one tells you how you can do it without giving up in a lot of situations in which you might be a favorite.
So, let’s begin at the beginning. What is a coin flip? It certainly includes matchups between identical hands, such as the A♠ Q♠ vs. the A♥ Q♥, or the 7♠ 7♥ vs. the 7♦ 7♣. This kind of confrontation is exactly even; no one has an advantage. It also includes matchups in which one hand is a tiny favorite; for example, the Q♣ 10♣ vs. the 6♠ 6♥, where the Q-10 suited will win 50.4 percent of the time, or the A♣ K♣ vs. the 4♠ 4♥, where the fours will win 51.0 percent of the time. I can even accept calling a matchup like the Q♠ Q♥ vs. the A♦ K♦ a coin flip, even though the queens will win 53.6 percent of the time. Note, however, that this humble-sounding advantage would be big enough to overcome the vig (laying 1.10 to win 1.00) and beat your bookie when betting on pro football. Changing the A-K from suited to offsuit raises the queens’ advantage to 57.0 percent. If anyone thinks that this is a coin flip, he needs to go back to Gambling 101! Yet, this matchup is often referred to as being a coin flip.
In general, you shouldn’t avoid coin flips, you should welcome them. Let’s begin with the clearest case — cash games. It is true that avoiding coin flips can reduce your variance, which is good. This means that you won’t have as many big wins and big losses, and you can probably get by with a slightly smaller bankroll. Since you should always have a bankroll that is at least adequate for the game you are playing, this shouldn’t be a major concern. The major concern is your opponents, and what they think of you. If you are avoiding coin flips, you are playing scared poker. They will take advantage of you. They will push you around. And this is only the first important reason for welcoming coin flips. What happens when you get a hand that isn’t a coin flip and you are a big favorite? They will know that you are a cowardly dog who avoids coin flips, and since you are willing to put a lot of money into the pot, you must have a great hand. If you avoid coin flips, you make life easy for your opponents. Players who seek out coin flips get paid off. Do you think Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan are afraid to gamble? The reason that you see players making hopeless calls against them is because they have shown their willingness to shove with potential coin flips and pure bluffs.
This is probably true in tournaments, also, but perhaps not so completely. In tournaments, you don’t always play against the same opponents for long periods of time. The ICM, Independent Chip Model, shows that in these situations, chips won are worth less than the same amount of chips lost, especially near the bubble. In reality, in tournaments, try to be the first to become clearly pot-committed. Then, it may be right for your opponent to avoid the coin flip. Likewise, once he is clearly committed, it is often right for you to avoid the coin flip.
My final objection to the theory of avoiding coin flips is that no one has clearly explained how you can do it. You have A-K as the first one in, from the button, and raise. The big blind reraises. Are you expected to fold? Yes, he might have a small or medium pair and be willing to call a reraise. Yes, you might even get all in against two queens, which isn’t good. But all of those are “coin flips,” and there is money already in the pot, so you probably have positive equity in calling. If he will fold a small pair to your shove, you have made a huge blunder by folding. If he has A-Q suited, you are making a big blunder by folding. If he has aces or kings, your call is a blunder — not because you didn’t avoid a coin flip, but because you got in with the worst hand. One could just as easily give this advice: “When your opponent goes all in on the river, call when you have the best hand and fold when you don’t.” This is generally excellent advice, but totally useless in the real world. ♠

Steve “Zee” Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on Full Tilt, as one of its pros. He usually spends much of the fall hanging out in his bars on Avenue A — Nice Guy Eddie’s and The Library near Houston, and Doc Holliday’s at 9th Street — in New York City.