The Low Flop and Continuation-Bet Conundrum

In the psychology of no-limit hold’em, most people expect the preflop raiser to lead the action post-flop. This bet, famously called a continuation-bet, can bring all sorts of grief to a preflop raiser when the flop comes low and ragged, for while he’s generally expected to bet (because he raised preflop), he’s also suspected to have missed the flop (because it’s junk). Let’s explore this conundrum and see if we can find a way or two out.

You’re playing in a $300-$500 buy-in no-limit hold’em cash game with two $5 blinds, and your image is middling loose. You open from middle position for, say, 20 bucks. I’m not assigning you a hand value here, because in this case, it really doesn’t matter what you have. It matters only what your foes think you hold. So, you get one late-position caller, and the blinds both fold. The flop comes 5-3-2 rainbow. The action’s on you. How will you proceed, and why?

This flop is a problem

The situation seems to cry out for a continuation-bet, but who would believe that you have a piece of that flop? With a high-card flop, you could have represented all kinds of fits. In this case, though, you’re just hanging there, hoping that your foe will put you on a medium or large pocket pair, but knowing that he can just as easily put you on unpaired overcards.

How it looks if you bet

Come out betting here, and you’re basically saying, “Yeah, I’m making a continuation-bet. What are you going to do about it?” Many foes will fold, God love them, because they’re Timid Timmies. The trouble is, those who aren’t Timmies have lots of options here, including just calling and basically daring you to fire again on the turn. They may even be planning to flat-call (float) any bet on the flop and raise any bet on the turn (or bet if you check), thus extracting maximum value from the continuation-bet that you felt so obligated to make. Against such foes, you’d probably have to shut it down on the turn, and fold to any bet. That’s a pretty meek play, though, and you’ll lose a lot of image equity, plus chips, if that’s what you do.

What happens if you check?

If betting the flop and then checking the turn is meek, checking the flop is meeker still. In the best case, your foe is equally meek and checks behind. Should that happen, you pick up a little elbow room on the turn — the opportunity to say, “Well, since he doesn’t seem to want this pot, I guess I’ll take it with my mere ace high.”

Alternatively, if a wheelhouse card (10 through ace) comes, you can bet it like you own it, now claiming, “Yes, I was out of line preflop, but I got a free card and was lucky enough to hit on the turn.” Of course, there’s no guarantee that your foe will check behind you on the flop; he may bet, in which case you’ll probably have to pass. Then again, if he should check the flop, he could hit his card on the turn (or decide that your check on the flop means that you’re definitely lying/stealing now), in which case he’ll attack on the turn and take the pot away then. Problems — ugly, ugly problems.

If your foe is frisky

If your foe is frisky, however, your check on the flop has a little added value, in that it may inspire him to bluff. If he does, you can go ahead and check-raise, signaling that you’ve either trapped him with a better hand (a premium pair, say) or goaded him into a bluff, which you’re now snapping off.

This move requires stones, true; the safer course is to fold. However, it does have the advantage of keeping your image unpredictable. You’re showing yourself capable of making a check-raise where a continuation-bet is called for. This not only will earn you some image equity now, it may give you a free card in another hand when a continuation-bet is called for but the flop doesn’t favor that move.

Think of what you’re afraid of

In this circumstance, your main concern is that your foe hit the flop. Well, guess what? That’s his main concern, too! Even if the flop isn’t obviously scary, either your straightforward continuation-bet or your check-raise bluff will send the strong signal that of all the hands you’re willing to raise with preflop, this time you have the hand that he fears most — a big pocket pair. Remember that two-thirds of the time, any two unpaired cards do not hit a pair on the flop. Also remember that if the flop is low and ragged, any pair that your foe makes here must necessarily be a low one. Let’s say that he called with A-5, which has now turned into top pair, top kicker. That’s a fragile holding. Any medium or high card on the turn except an ace will probably slow him down. In any case, his likeliest holding is mere overcards, and if he has overcards without an ace, he really can’t afford to call, because he can’t figure his hand to be a favorite over even the weakest ace you might have raised with.

Sometimes you do what’s expected

Weak board or not, you’re expected to make a continuation-bet here, and even though you feel exposed and vulnerable, you still have to follow through. Why? Because your foe feels exposed and vulnerable, too! Even if he figures you for a naked steal, he needs to have a hand that can beat a steal. He may not have such a hand, nor have the will to fight. But here’s the thing: How can you push him off his hand if you don’t push? Bet! Bet, and give him a chance to fold.

The preflop raise and the delicate dance

In most cases, we want to be the aggressor. In most cases, we want to put in raises preflop. This means that we’re going to face the low flop and the continuation-bet conundrum many, many times. For the sake of avoiding predictability, we can’t play it the same way every time, but most of the time, we’re going to try to retain the initiative. Why? Two reasons:

1. It’s hard to make a hand. Just because we missed, it doesn’t mean our foe didn’t miss, too.

2. Opponents can’t fold if we don’t bet. And if they do fold, we win not just chips, but image equity, too.

Think about all of this the next time you face the low flop and continuation-bet conundrum. Even though you missed your flop, you haven’t necessarily missed your shot. ♠

John Vorhaus is the author of the Killer Poker book series and the poker novel Under the Gun. He resides in cyberspace at radarenterprizes.com. Photo: Gerard Brewer.