What to Think About When You See a Flop — Part I

Regardless of which limit hold’em game I am playing, I see this happen: A few players are in before the flop. The flop hits, someone bets, and far more players call than you would expect to have caught a significant piece of the flop.

Remarkably, this seems to happen almost regardless of the flop. K-8-2 is just as likely to attract four or five callers as J-10-9. Oftentimes, I am the only one folding on the flop. While I am folding, I wonder what is going on in the minds of the callers.

I got some insight into this recently when there was a bet and a raise on the flop. A loose player squirmed around for a while, then said, “I really hate to fold this hand. I am sure that I am going to pick up some kind of draw.”

Perhaps it’s the draw-for-a-draw mentality that keeps these folks around. I watched a low-limit game recently in which someone won a hand when the flop was K-6-6, the turn was a 9, the river a 10, and he showed down Q-J. That’s a nice result, but what did he see on the flop that convinced him to stay in?

I have decided that perhaps not enough players have a structured process for assessing their chances on the flop. In general, most limit hold’em pots are won by either the best hand or the best draw on the flop. Sure, there are lots of other ways to win, and pot odds always should enter into your decision, but the best hand/best draw model will get the money in the long run. With that in mind, I shall use this column to provide a list of what to think about that emphasizes this structure:

1. What are the best possible hands?
2. What are the chances that someone has one?
3. How do these hands compare to mine?
4. What am I trying to make?
5. If I make it, what are my chances of winning?
6. How many bets will it cost me to try for it?
7. What are the pot odds?

What are the best possible hands? This should be your first thought, and it should be the easiest, since there is no judgment involved. When you see a flop, your mind immediately should run through the best possible hands. If you see a flop of 6-4-2, you should think 5-3, 6-6, 4-4, 2-2, 6-4, 6-2, 4-2, A-A, and so on. A flop of J-10-8 should bring thoughts of Q-9, 9-7, J-J, and so on down the line.

This process should be automatic and rapid.

What are the chances that someone has one? This is where we start to make our first judgment call. It is always possible that someone has a really good hand, and the probability of it happening depends upon many factors. For example, it is far more likely that someone flopped two pair or better on the J-10-8 board than on the 6-4-2 board.

The probability of there being a good hand depends on how many players see the flop, what their tendencies are, and how the preflop betting went. Certainly, with one opponent, it is less likely that he connected with the flop, while with eight opponents, it is almost inevitable that someone has. Of course, this is also flop-dependent, as a flop of K-K-Q is far more dangerous than one of 4-4-3, regardless of the number of opponents. Any suited flop is far more dangerous than a rainbow flop, especially against a large field.

Your task at this stage is to assess the chances that you are up against a premium holding, based on the flop. We are, of course, playing a game of incomplete information, so your best logical inference will still be an approximation, at best. But the more that you do this exercise, then compare the result of the hand to your initial judgment, the better you will become at making these inferences.

How do these hands compare to mine? This is where the rubber meets the road. You know what you have, and you have judged what might be out there. Now, you need to decide where you may stand. Let’s look at some examples.

Example No. 1: You have 8-8 in the big blind. A middle-position player raises. Everyone else folds, and you call. The flop is J-6-3. While you may be trailing a set, your main threat is an overpair or a hand like A-J. You certainly may lose this hand, but your chances of being ahead of either two overcards or a smaller pocket pair are excellent. Your plan for the hand will be an attempt to find out whether you are ahead or behind as cheaply as possible, which could mean just calling all the way, or it could mean check-raising the flop, depending on how your opponent plays.

Example No. 2: Same hand, same flop, but now there is an early-position limper and five other limpers. You still may be ahead, but the chances that at least one of the limpers has a jack or a pocket pair higher than yours are very high. You may try to read the betting, but your best play is to check and fold.

Example No. 3: Now, the button open-raises; you hold the same hand in the big blind and see the same flop. Because of the increased range for the raiser in most cases, your chances of having the best hand are excellent. You should play the hand as if you’re ahead, and just take your lumps if you happen to lose (of course, paying attention to the betting and your opponent’s tendencies along the way).

Example No. 4: You have A-K and open-raise from middle position. Only the big blind calls. You see a flop of 6-6-5. Sure, this is not a good flop for you, but you have to treat your hand as a winner here. There is no reason to believe that he has a 6, 5, or pocket pair. How about 9-8-7 on the flop? This is much worse, although you still have a good chance of being ahead right now. You definitely should proceed more cautiously than with the 6-6-5 flop.

If you open-raise with your A-K, five players call, and you see a 9-8-7 flop, you should check and fold. You may be wrong, or you may be behind and catch a key overcard to make a winner, but in the long run, this hand is too dangerous to continue to play in a six-handed pot.

Clearly, every hand, flop, and combination of opponents is different. You need to realistically assess where you may be, and whether you probably have the best hand or are unlikely to have it. This exercise is never easy, but, as before, practice and careful review of how your results compare with your flop assessments will produce more acute judgments.

Next issue, we will look at the remaining questions to ask yourself on the flop. ♠

Barry Tanenbaum is the author of Advanced Limit Hold’em Strategy, and collaborator on Limit Hold’em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies. Barry offers private lessons tailored to the individual student. Please see his website, www.barrytanenbaum.com, or write to him at [email protected].