Mind Over Poker - Suckouts Don’t Even Out

Yes, that’s right; you read the title of this column correctly. Suckouts don’t even out. Some players inflict bad beats more than they receive them, and others fall victim to suckouts at what seems to be a greater rate than others, even in the long run. How can that be? What explains this phenomenon? Are some players just naturally luckier than others? Quite the contrary; luck will even out in the long term, but suckouts won’t.

Let me explain. I’m a firm believer that poker is a game of skill, subject to real short-term variance. Due to the capriciousness of the cards and lady luck, you will experience some wild fluctuations. Over the long term, however, that all evens out — and skill wins out. The great players will have losing sessions but winning careers.

And the great players will suffer bad beats at a greater rate than they will inflict them. Why is that? Are they naturally less lucky? Not at all, but they rely on luck much less often than the average player. Skillful players aren’t looking to chase every draw or get their money in with the worst of it. They get their money in good. That’s why they suck out less frequently. I was reminded of this a few weeks back when I watched a very good player go from being the chip leader to elimination in one orbit at the final table of a tournament. In three hands, he went heads up with the same opponent. Each time, he was way ahead when the chips went in, and each time, he lost. Our very good player was now short-stacked and got his chips in against the same opponent. This time, he was behind and never caught up, and was eliminated.

After the tournament, I talked to our unlucky hero, who is a friend of mine. He had a great attitude. His outlook wasn’t that things even out and he was due a few suckouts. Rather, he took the position that in the long term, his hands will hold up against those potential suckouts with much more regularity than what had just taken place. That’s the mindset of a champion. Don’t look to get even by inflicting a bad beat. Be secure in knowing that if you consistently get your money in good, you’ll win in the long run. ♠

David Apostolico is the author of several poker-strategy books, including Tournament Poker and The Art of War, and Compete, Play, Win: Finding Your Best Competitive Self. You can contact him at [email protected].