Nonspeculative Chips

I recently received an e-mail asking for my opinion about defending one's blind in a delicate tournament situation. It follows:

I was playing in a $125 buy-in limit hold'em tournament in Arizona. The last two tables would make the money, and we were down to three tables. The blinds were at $300-$600. I was the big blind in the No. 5 seat with about $6,500, which was the fourth-biggest stack at our table and around an average stack for the tournament. I posted the $600 big blind, the No. 7 seat raised (he was the chip leader at our table), and the No. 9 seat reraised. The No. 1 seat called with a short stack, as did the No. 4 seat (the small blind) with a short stack. I looked down to see the J 4, and decided to muck the hand. The No. 7 seat just called the extra bet.

The pot had four players at $1,800 each and my $600, for a total of $7,800.

The flop came down J 3 2. The No. 4 and 7 seats checked, the No. 9 seat bet, the No. 1 seat called all in, and the No. 4 seat and No. 7 seat called. The turn card was the 8. The No. 4 seat went all in, and the No. 7 seat and No. 9 seat called the all-in bet. The river card was the 4. It was checked around. The winner was the No. 4 seat with only pocket sevens.

Had I made this call, I would have won the hand and probably would have been the tournament chip leader. Did I make the right decision or should I have called?

Thanks for the help,

Josh

I answered his question resoundingly, "Yes – you made the correct play by folding. To make my explanation clearer, here are some relevant definitions:

• A critical-chip situation is one in which each chip has not only its inherent value, but survival (timing) value as well – somewhat like nondisposable income money that you need to survive.
• A primary or offensive hand is a good hand that figures to win; hence, you normally bet or raise with it.
• A secondary or defensive hand is not a good hand (for example, a small pair in hold'em), but it might turn out to be the best hand (usually it's more likely to lose than win, however).

"Generally, you should save your money to play primary hands, with which you are the favorite. One very basic tournament theory is that when you are in a critical-chip situation, you should not speculate a relatively large amount of chips by calling with a secondary hand (note that $1,200 in the above hand was more than a set of blinds – which would enable you to see another whole round of cards). And not only are you a favorite to lose those speculated chips, getting involved with a secondary hand presents a lot of potential for a second-best big disaster.

"Josh, you were completely correct to fold. You should not put lots of chips into the pot unless you have good odds going for you – and that especially applies in a critical-chip situation.

"You might make this kind of speculative call in a live-action game (not my preference, but occasionally) if you are looking for a big swing in chips (a little bit like playing the lottery). But in a very delicate tournament situation, where every chip has important value (to your survival), you should not risk valuable chips on a low potential hand. You will need those chips if your next good hand doesn't hold up. As for the result, would you ask yourself if you should have played a 7-2 suited just because two deuces hit the flop?"