Final Table Takedown: Marvin Rettenmaier Calculates All the Odds

Marvin Rettenmaier has been one of the hottest players on the live tournament poker circuit over the past two years. In 2011, he won the France Poker Series Grand Final, took second at the PokerStars European Poker Tour Deauville main event, and closed out the year with a third-place finish at the World Poker Tour Venice main event. He recently joined Team Party Poker.com as a sponsored player. He has more than $3,000,000 in career tournament cashes.

Hand No. 1

Key Concepts: Future equity strategy; the power of the chiplead; ICM

Craig Tapscott: Can you explain what you mean by ICM, so our readers unfamiliar with that term can understand?

Marvin Rettenmaier: ICM stands for Independent Chip Model which assigns a certain dollar value to your chip stack in a tournament. It is based on the current size of your stack, the current size of the other players’ stacks, the total prizepool and the prizepool distribution. It is an important factor in tournaments since you should always have an estimate of how much equity you can win in a certain spot and how much you can lose.

Mizrachi raises from the cutoff to 200,000, Rettenmaier reraises from the button to 485,000 holding A K. O’Dwyer moves all-in from the small blind. Mizrachi shoves all-in.

CT: After all this action what’s the optimal thing to do holding A-K suited?

MR: I went into the tank. It would seem like a snap call with A-K suited to most people, but…

CT: Can you take us through your thought process from A-Z in this crucial spot?

MR: OK. I’ll go through it so you can see why I think it’s a very close decision. I’m pretty sure the Grinder (Mizrachi) would have thought about what to do with hands like A-J, A-Q, and pairs up to 9-9. I put him at 60 percent holding A-K, 20 percent with pairs up to Q-Q, 10 percent with A-A/K-K, and 10 percent on A-Q/A-J.

CT: Did you break it down further?

MR: Yes. The math (in a vacuum): I have to call 1,700,000. The side pot is 2,200,000. The 60 percent chance he’s holding A-K, then my equity is about 51 percent, the 20 percent that he is holding pairs up to Q-Q, then my equity is close to 46 percent. And the 10 percent with A-A/K-K is about 23 percent. If he’s got A-Q then my equity is 75 percent.

CT: OK. What next?

MR: Well in this simple calculation I’m pretty much exactly 50 percent to win the side pot. However, in case the Grinder has a pair, it is very likely that O’Dwyer and myself are sharing outs. Disregarding O’Dwyer’s range, where aces and kings are the most likely, the side pot gives me 1,100,000 in equity. This means I would only need 600,000 in EV (Expected Value) from the main pot to make it a mathematically correct call.

CT: And the math involving the main pot?

MR: The main pot will be about 3,000,000, so I’d only need 20 percent. So I won’t go into the math here. And because I’m very likely to share outs, it’s actually a lot closer than you think. Let’s say the call is slightly plus EV in a vacuum. The math doesn’t even matter to me that much in this scenario, as I for sure didn’t want to take small edges risking a lot of chips at this point. Yet I loved the status quo of me being able to exploit my chip position. Even though they’re all good players, my chiplead made it so hard for them to play back at me.

CT: Since I see how your analytical brain works now, I’m sure you thought of all the possible outcomes if you called or folded.

MR: Of course. Let’s look at what the possible outcomes are if I decide to call: 1. I scoop the pot. That makes me very happy. I’d have more than two-thirds of the chips in play and I can grind the other two down and then go into heads-up with a huge chip lead. 2a. O’Dwyer scoops the pot, Grinder and me split the side pot both holding A-K. O’Dwyer is back up to 30 big blinds on my direct left (no good) and Grinder is down to 11 big blinds and I’m down to 60 big blinds. 2b. Grinder wins the side pot and he stays at 22 big blinds. I go down to under 50 big blinds; I still like my chances in this scenario, although O’Dwyer is really tough to play against out of position. But I would still have the chip lead. 2c. I win side pot, very unlikely scenario to win against one and lose against the other holding A-K suited. But the Grinder would be gone and I’d still have 70 big blinds and the world would still be good.

CT: And if Mizrachi wins the pot?

MR: If the Grinder scoops the pot, then he’d go up to 52 big blinds. I’d still have 48 big blinds, but he would overtake the chip lead. I really didn’t want this to happen since I was able to chip up pretty easily just opening a lot of pots and putting the pressure on the other players, especially with the money jumps being that big. I really wanted to keep up the chiplead till we got three-handed.

CT: So you’re saying Mizrachi winning the pot would make you sad then?

MR: (Laughs) Yes. Outcome 3 would be by far the worst and the only one that would really change my strategy after this hand was over; because 20 percent of time I will lose the chiplead and get myself into a terrible spot.

CT: And what if you folded the A-K suited?

MR: I fold and stay at 65 big blinds. O’Dwyer wins and is up to 26 big blinds, and the Grinder is down to 11 big blinds. And if the Grinder wins, he goes up to 37 big blinds. If I fold, no matter what happens, I am still in a very good position to win the whole thing. Thinking about it now I actually regret my decision of calling. I got myself into a spot I didn’t have to get myself into.

CT: So you think you should have folded?

MR: I actually do. I remember thinking that I would have folded A-K offsuit, but with my hand being suited my scoop equity went up that tiny bit which made me decide to call. A wise man once said, “Your tactic in the battle should always go along with the strategy of the war.” I didn’t quite follow this in this hand.

Rettenmaier calls. O’Dwyer reveals A K. Mizrachi flips over 10 10

Flop: J 9 3 (pot: 5,320,000)

Turn: 4 (pot: 5,320,000)

River: 2 (pot: 5,320,000)

Mizrachi wins the pot of 5,320,000.

Hand No. 2

Key Concepts: Inducing a raise; Small-ball poker

Rettenmaier raises to 205,000 from UTG holding 5♣ 5♠. Mizrachi calls from the big blind.

MR: Although I lost the chip lead, I still opened about 80 percent at the time and only the Grinder was defending his blinds on a regular basis. The Grinder is not a fan of the “fold button,” and his range here is very wide.

Flop: 9 8 7 (pot: 500,000)

Mizrachi checks. Rettenmaier checks.

MR: The flop comes as wet as it gets. I have an underpair plus the bad side of a gutshot, but I like my hand. But the chance of him going over the top with a draw is too high for me to bet this and lose my equity in case I would decide to fold to his raise; which I’d have to do. Also it gives him the opportunity to bluff into me on later streets..

Turn: 6 (pot: 500,000)

CT: What now since you’ve hit the bad end of the straight?

MR: Only a single 10 has me beat here. Still, I’m very happy with my hand.

Mizrachi bets 300,000. Rettenmaier calls.

River: 9 (pot: 1,100,000)

Mizrachi checks.

CT: It looks like he’s waving the white flag?

MR: Yes it does, but it’s the Grinder after all and he doesn’t like to give up pots so easily, which makes it quite hard to win pots with the worst hand against him. So I decide to put out a small value bet to make him pay off with some pair/two pair type hands since he could easily put me on a draw myself; after all there were two flush draws on the turn and I’m absolutely capable of floating him on the turn with absolute air as well, or to get him to bluff into me.

Rettenmaier bets 365,000. Mizrachi raises to 1,000,000.

MR: I knew that the chance of him bluff-raising me here would be quite high if I made my bet small enough.

Rettenmaier calls and reveals the straight. Mizrachi mucks. Rettenmaier wins the pot of 3,100,000.

MR: I caught his bluff, regained the chiplead and was therefore able to put ICM pressure onto my opponents once again. ♠