It’s a Cognitive Thing

“I just wasn’t hitting,” my friend stated after I asked him why he moved from a great game to a significantly tougher game. His decision confounded me. Why would anyone move from a great game to a crappy one? Something was seriously wrong with my friend’s reasoning. And his way of thinking was going to affect his poker results big time.

To understate the issue, the human mind isn’t always guided by logic or reason. Often, it is influenced by cognitive distortion. Sometimes that distortion is driven by emotion; other times it is driven by distorted thinking. Psychologists call these calculative errors “cognitive biases.” And those afflicted often have no clue that their judgment is unsound.

Like a computer running with flawed software…it’s garbage in, garbage out! The computer is just performing its functions as previously programmed, just like the human brain does in some instances. The computer never knows whether it is correct or not, but humans erroneously believe that they are correct.

But poker decisions need to be based on sound, logical reasoning. And if they’re not, the odds don’t care about your misperceptions; you’re costing yourself equity. Over time, equity equals money. And money is good!

Cognitive biases are commonly seen in the poker arena. One bias, the one that my friend possessed is known as the “gamblers’ fallacy” bias, the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality, the odds are unchanged. Just because you have not caught any cards in the previous two hours in no way alters your chances of hitting cards in the next two hours. That said, I do understand that not running well often empowers your opponents and disillusions yourself. Therefore, changing games can be the correct decision in marginal situations. However, thinking that because events have run a given way somehow changes how events will run in the future is illogical and has no place in your poker decisions.

Other cognitive biases affect poker. With the economic downturn in poker recently, many players have failed to reset their expectations to the new realities of the current poker world. The poker landscape is a different world now and you need to correctly adjust your thinking to be congruent with it. It’s psychologically known as the “sunk cost” bias, the inability to calculate issues from the current perspective point after suffering a loss.

This has many facets in poker. Does “pot committed” mean you should throw good money after bad? When you’ve lost money, it’s gone. When the game has changed, your expectation has changed. You make your decisions from your current position. Is it right to play in a game when you’re tired just because you’re stuck? Is it the right time to go attack a higher, tougher game just because you are looking to get even? You need to base your decisions on what is before you, not what is behind you. Base your future decisions on your long term profitable interests, including burnout and opportunity costs. This “sunk cost” bias has cost many a talented poker pro their career. Don’t add yourself to that list!

Another bias commonly seen in poker is the “self serving” bias, claiming responsibility for your successes, but denying responsibility for your failures. That is, you think that your superior abilities lead to your wins, but bad luck is the only reason for your losses. Thinking this way prevents you from learning from your mistakes, leaving you at the same intellectual level forever.

Some people frame situations too narrowly, and don’t include all pertinent aspects to the equation. Known as the “framing bias” it creates false conclusions by causing the logician to ignore some important factors. A poker example of this is justifying a poker play based on an opponent’s deception play or mistake rather than encompassing his bonafide hand range. Just because you see a player make a bad play once, don’t assume he always will make the same error.

One more cognitive bias is the “hindsight bias”, the “I knew it all along” effect, seeing the situation as obvious in hindsight when at the decision point it certtainly wasn’t. This bias is often seen in opponents who pay you off while telling you they knew you had them beat. That sure makes a lot of sense, doesn’t it?
I constantly see the “confirmation bias” in which players search for confirmation to their preconceptions. Since they want to believe they are unlucky, they constantly look at the point in the play of a hand in which they were the unluckiest to confirm their preconceived belief that their losses are due to bad luck. For example, a no-limit player gets all his money in with T-T against A-A, flops a ten and bemoans his luck when an ace comes. He somehow “forgets” he got his money in real bad in the first place. Narcissistic people use this bias to make themselves always right!

This is similar to the “belief bias” in which poker players who believe they play well, yet lose, and can only conclude that bad luck is the reason. Their belief inhibits them from making the necessary changes to their game to become winners.

Another important bias that deserves discussion in reading hands is the “fundamental attribution error.” It’s the tendency to overemphasize previous behaviors in different circumstances which causes you to underemphasize the power of the current situational influences. For example, when your opponent makes a deception play and you get caught up in the fact he made that play and overadjust your play. If a tight opponent raises preflop with the 5 4, don’t automatically add all suited connectors to his hand range when determining his preflop raising standards.

Many other biases affect poker players. The bottom line being that you need to be brutally realistic in your interpretation of poker events, thinking through all angles of every situation, and deciphering the information accurately.

Many people have a tough time being brutally realistic with themselves. Being able to recognize that your mind plays tricks on you is a big step towards realism. If your conclusions don’t fit your realities, you might want to think things through more deeply to spot where you are making intellectual errors. Poker contains a wide range of issues in which one can delude oneself. Are you deluding yourself?
If you are, you’ll pay dearly for it! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook!