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June 21st – Assume opponents don’t play draws aggressively until you actually see it. @rivermen123

One of the more common excuses I hear people use when explaining why they could not fold an overpair is that the board was “draw heavy.” These types of players are usually fooling themselves. The mere fact is that, especially at the lower levels, people do not play draws all that aggressively. Just because the flop contains a two suit does not mean that a player showing aggression against the preflop raiser has a flush draw.

Let’s take a look at an example. We raise under the gun in a $5-5 no limit game with $500 effective stacks to $20 with Q Q. Two mid-position players call. The flop comes out 6 4 2. We bet $50, the next player folds and last to act raises to $200. This type of decision is really common in capped 100 big blind games. Players that transition from the Internet will often convince themselves that the board is draw heavy and that their opponent can easily be making a semibluff. They decide to go with the hand and are usually up against at least a fifteen-out draw or are virtually drawing dead.

What these young players do not realize is that typical live players do not usually push draws that are not monster draws. Where online in a six-max game, you might see a player raise the above board with 9 8 you will not see that type of move with a “dry” flush draw in a normal live game. If we then can accurately deduce that our opponents’ range only consist of huge draws and made hands, we then have to look at the amount of combinations of each that they can hold. Let’s say on that flop we give our opponent 5 7, A 5, A 4, 5 4 and A 3. These draws all have at least 50 percent equity against our hand. Let’s also say that our opponent could have a set, top two or a flopped straight. There are three combinations of each set, for a total of nine. There are three combinations of 6-4 suited. There are also four combinations of 5-3 suited (hands that will call preflop). You can see that there are more than three times as many made hands as draws, and those draws still have decent equity against us. The simple fact is that there will be many more combinations of made hands than draws, if said player is only pushing big draws (flush draw straight draws, pair plus flush draw, etcetera).

Lastly, and probably most importantly, some players will never raise with draws. You have to pay attention to what is going around you at the table. Let’s say we raise to $20 in a $5-$5 game with the same stack sizes but this time with A A. One older player, who we know will never flat big hands preflop, calls. We also know that this player plays passively postflop and never pushes his draws. The flop comes out 10 8 6. We bet out $35 and he raises to $165. What is the obvious play here? Fold. There is really nothing that we can beat. If we were against a more aggressive type that might raise any flush draw or pair plus draw we may continue on to see what happens on the turn. But against this type of opponent we can be almost one hundred percent certain that we are up against a made hand.

June 18th – Check-raising the flop against the preflop raiser with a draw is a strong play but you must continue to barrel overcards. One and done does not cut it.

I am never a fan of trying to bluff players off of overpairs at the lower levels. 95 percent of the money won and lost at live mid-stakes games and below is through value betting. However, if you find yourself in a situation where you think that it is profitable to semibluff from out of position you have to continue to fire barrels on the right scare cards. This is why suited connectors and small suited aces are so difficult to limp/call a raise from up front. Most of the time when you flop good you are going to flop some sort of draw and draws are extremely difficult to play when first to act.

Last week, I was playing in a loose passive $5-10 no-limit game at a small room in Los Angeles and decided to limp in with 8 7 from under the gun. This is a play that I would not recommend usually, but most of the table was sitting with at least $3,000 stacks, and there was not much preflop aggression. Much to my dismay one of the more solid players raised to $50 after the player to my left also limped and two people called in late position. I decided to take a flop since there were so many weak players in the hand and I also thought there was a chance that I could get the solid player off of the best hand. The board came out 9 5 2. I checked, the limper checked and the solid player bet out $175. His bet is almost always a real hand here as this is not the situation or the type of board to make a continuation bet with nothing. The next player folded and the last, one of the weakest players at the table, thought for a long time and called. I was actually happy that this player got involved as I felt that if I now made an aggressive move at the pot the preflop raiser would have to worry about another player behind him. I am also showing additional strength because I am check-raising multiple players. So, it got back to me and I check raised to $550.

My draw here is decent and I am a little under fifty per cent against an overpair. I would be forced to get it in against the preflop raiser if he was shorter but am doing really bad against a shove back range of a set or higher spades. I also, with my sizing, wanted to drive the weaker player out if he had a hand like say 10 J. It would also be harder for me to win the pot against two people on the turn. The preflop raiser tanked for about three minutes and finally called. Much to my delight the weaker guy got out of the way and folded.

Turn A. This is where most people freeze when they check-raise with draws. A case can be made that when the pot gets this big, betting another barrel is super scary and may show immediate profit. I do not necessarily agree with this logic, but you should definitely be barreling certain cards – and I think an ace or a king are two of the best. I bet $700 and the solid player painstakingly folded.

We can almost certainly narrow our opponent’s range in this hand down to pocket aces through pockets jacks. If this type of “solid” player was uncertain about his Q-Q or K-K on the flop, the ace is almost certainly going to scare him. The funny thing is the ace really is not that much of a scare card – although many people do not realize this. If our probable range on the flop is either sets or draws the only thing that the ace does is possibly pair up the nut-flush draw but it would be highly unlikely to see a player continue to bet huge on the turn once they make a weak top pair in a pot like this.

You should also be willing to barrel as a bluff on the river when the board runs out scary. Say in the above example we were heads up and our opponent held J-J. He bets $75 in to a $100 pot on the flop and we make it $250. He calls. Turn is the Q. We bet $300 and he calls. River is the A. We bet $650. Even some of the more experienced players and good hand readers would have a tough time calling here with J-J. The most important thing to remember is that overcards to probable overpairs are indeed scary. ♠

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Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on twitter @barthanson. Check out his podcast “Deuce Plays” on DeucesCracked.com and his video training site specifically for live No Limit players—CrushLivePoker.com. He also hosts Live at the Bike every Tuesday and Friday at 10:30 pm ET at LivettheBike.com