Head Games: How to Formulate a Plan and Extrapolate Maximum Intel From Every Hand During Tournament Play

The Pros: Vanessa Selbst, Bertrand “ElKy” Grospellier, and Randal Flowers

Craig Tapscott: What is the checklist that you go through in your head when evaluating and planning a strategy from the start of a hand to its conclusion?

Vanessa Selbst: I don’t know that there’s necessarily a “checklist,” because the factors that determine how I’m going to play my hand vary so much from hand to hand. But I can at least discuss some of the things I think about. I’ll limit this to preflop since that’s where so many tournament decisions lie. First of all, if a weaker opponent comes in for a raise and we’re deep-stacked (I would consider deep-stacked 60 big blinds or more), I’m going to be looking for an excuse to play a hand. The less likely I am to see a squeeze, the more ability I have to call with a slightly weaker hand. So factors that I consider: the number of people behind me, the aggression level of those players, my position, etcetera. Also, if we are very deep and there’s a hand I definitely want to play that can’t stand a squeeze, I might just three-bet it myself to isolate the weaker player, especially in position. My decision of whether or not to do that depends on my image, the stage of the tournament (the later the stage of the tournament, the more fold equity I tend to have as people play a bit more cautiously). These are also all factors you should consider when deciding whether or not to play a hand generally, as well. If I have aggressive three-bettors behind me, and I’m facing a raise with something like 8-7 suited, I might just three-bet myself rather than just call so that I take the initiative and don’t get squeezed out of the hand. However, if my image is bad as I’ve been playing a lot of pots and bluffing, I’m probably more likely to call with that hand (or fold if my position is too early) as I think I’ll get paid off more when I hit something, and I’m less likely to win the pot by semi-bluffing, especially if I’ve inflated the pot already and thus there are fewer decision points for my opponent to decide to call me down.

Bertrand Grospellier: Personally, the most important things to evaluate is my remaining opponents’ (in the hand) playing styles and how much do I think I could exploit their tendencies, be it preflop or postflop. So, if I have a lot of predictable players behind me, I will definitely open much lighter than if there are good players, but of course you should always consider the stack sizes, position, the table dynamics, and how you have been perceived as of late. You always have to adapt and consider the personality and playing style of your opponents and try to assess their actual state of mind, which might be the hardest thing in poker. As each street unfolds, I also try to narrow down my opponents’ ranges of hands as much as possible by using both the general playing style I would expect them to have and also my recollection of hands played together; although you have to be quite careful because it’s a very fast changing game and if I played with someone 6 or more months ago, they might have switched up their style a lot.
The biggest variables to adjust to are usually bet sizing, in my opinion. Because sometimes I plan to check-raise the flop or turn, but depending on how deep we are and the ratio of remaining effective stack to pot, I’d have to check/fold. But it is more true of amateur players who are a bit more predictable and tend to bet stronger with big hands, whereas most of the professionals would for example make the same size continuation bet postflop no matter what their hand value is. Even though having a well-rounded plan, when you know what you will do whatever the unfolding situation will be [is vital], it is also of prime importance to be able to reevaluate any new information.

Randal Flowers: The first thing that goes through my mind is the table dynamic. Who is the button? Does the big blind defend his blind wide? Did the guy who limped ever limp any hands earlier? Could the player who just lost a big pot, then opened under-the-gun (UTG) be on tilt or still playing tight and disciplined? All the contexts of the events prior to the hand you are currently playing should be fresh in your mind and apply to the hand at the time. The next thing I think about is my own image. How do the players on my left view me? Should I tighten up or loosen up? If I’ve been card-dead, I will take advantage of my image and steal with a more mediocre hand than usual. If I’ve been crazy, I have to adjust and play a wider range for value and also know that I will be played back at more frequently. Although you can plan a strategy and execute when possible, it behooves you to pay attention to everything around you. Another habit I like to incorporate is always looking at my opponent when the flop is coming out, just a glimpse to get their vibe and general demeanor. The best plan is always to be ready to change your plan. If you are super excited about having pocket aces, but a tight player check/calls twice then leads big on a scary river, you are no longer playing for value and are now on the defensive. I think always being able to anticipate what is about to happen is a good way to see how spot on your reads are, even if you are just at the table and not in the pot.

Craig Tapscott: Please share examples of information that you can extrapolate about an opponent and how you can use it to maximize value or make hero calls?

Vanessa Selbst: In live poker, we don’t have online stats we can use, so it’s important to get as much information as possible as quickly as possible. A great skill to have is to be able to see one hand happen and extrapolate information from that hand to use other similar (or sometimes completely different) situations. One example I always give is, let’s say someone has three-bet a lot but never shown down, so we don’t know what they are three-betting. But then they get to showdown in a spot where they flat called A-Q preflop. Well, we can use that information to figure out that if they are not three-betting value hands as strong as A-Q all the time, then their three-betting range is probably bluff-heavy (because it is hard to get 10-10 plus and A-K!), and therefore consists of a whole lot of hands that can’t stand more pressure, so we should four-bet bluff them with a wide range. Another good example is if I see someone betting a lot of rivers when checked to, but then I see them missing relatively easy value bets, I’m more likely to hero call them because once again, their frequency is too high to justify the fact that they’re unwilling to value bet thin, so their range of monster or bluff means that they’re usually just bluffing. 

Bertrand Grospellier: The easiest way to extrapolate information, if you don’t have that much playing experience with someone, is definitely to use the small sample of hands that you played with them to sort them into a category of players, and refine your reads as each hand unfolds. However, your own table image is also one very important factor. For example, in my experience, I know of lots of players that will try specifically to bluff me/hero call me more than others, because they’re trying harder to outplay me. So someone that could play a very straightforward game most of the time, at the table, would change it when he gets involved in a hand with me. It also depends a lot on their level of thinking. For example, more advanced players would think that I could bluff more often on scary board runouts, so it might be even easier to induce a hero call from them on those than on drier boards, where it’s much harder to represent anything. 

Randal Flowers: I think the most obvious and most effective way of getting information from people is just talking to them. I generally try to be a funny guy that everyone enjoys having at the table. Not to say I’m not a funny guy usually, but random friend Jim here, that I just met for the first time who just plays more for fun than to win, could fold a hand he might call a disrespectful young kid with, just because he’s having a blast. There are many players that give away tons of information thinking they are just playing and talking and everything is great. But I’m looking for any little hesitation, extra quick motion, instant action without a thought, that can tip whether they are comfortable or not. If a friend of mine is mid conversation very comfortably, casually three-bets me and keeps talking, I’m probably folding. One funny example of adjusting and using information against someone recently was when I was in the $3,000 shootout event at the WSOP. I was four-handed with Dan O’Brien and he raised the button after we had been very chatty at the table. A few hands prior to this button raise, his great friend Jason Mercier came over for a quick discussion. As Jason is standing behind Dan, I notice he sees Dan’s cards. I did not get a read off Jason’s reaction except for the fact that they kept talking very casually. I found it hard to believe Jason could just casually see a great hand and carry on like that, so I just decided I’m three-betting my top 80 percent of hands. So I three-bet his raise with 7-6 offsuit and said, “Are you going to show off for Jay, Dan?” And he smiled and folded. We had a good chuckle and Jason quickly said, “I’m not talking anymore,” and headed out soon thereafter.  ♠