Analyzing The Range

Poor poker players put their opponent(s) on a specific hand and then play their hand according to how they think they should play it against that specific holding. This methodology generates serious miscalculations when the read is in error, as it often is.
The correct approach is to put your opponent on a range of hands you think he would play under the current circumstances. You can use math to determine the chances of each of those holdings by determining how many mathematical possibilities exist for each plausible hand. Then, you should discount certain hands based on the propensity of your opponent to play those hands in the current manner. After which, you should have an approximation of the hands your opponent might hold and the propensity for each holding. Yeah, it’s a best guess estimate, but with practice, this method will improve your reads.

I open-raised in the cutoff in a $20-$40 limit hold’em game at the Bellagio with the 5 5 and got three-bet by Colby, an aggressive local, who knows I would raise in that position with a wide range of hands, would adjust his raising range accordingly, and three-bet with a large range. Both blinds folded and I called. We took the flop heads-up.

The flop came the K 7 7. I knuckled to Colby who intsa-fired. Knowing Colby would three-bet a wide range preflop and continuation bet (c-bet) with 100 percent of his range, I chose to make a play on the pot and check-raised, thinking my two fives were likely to be the best hand. Additionally, the money in the pot was laying me a good price.

That said, I understood I was assuming some risks. Colby’s a thinking opponent, capable of making plays and even if my hand was good, I might get “played off” it. Additionally, it might not be good, any king, seven or wired pair higher than fives beat me. Colby called my check-raise.

I struggled not to show the smile blossoming inside me when the 5 hit on the turn giving me bottom full. It had been a while since I‘d caught a sweet card and I loved this one. I fired, and to my delight Colby raised. I confidently three-bet, but started to lose my self-assurance when Colby four-bet me.

I thought about his four-bet turn-raising range. Colby has played lots with me, knows I play solid and is going to respect my three-bet. I virtually excluded bluffs from his range. I thought he might be four-betting with position with a strong, but not super strong hand like A-K or A-A, but I discounted that heavily since he would read me for a wide preflop range, one that might include a seven. Hands like K-K, 7-7 or a seven would be hands he would trap with on the flop, raise the turn and four-bet when reraised. While I could beat all the sevens except K-7 or 7-5, I would be drawing dead to 7-7 and only have one out against K-K, so any bets I got in against those hands would have little to no equity. I’d be just over a 5-to-1 favorite over any seven, but would Colby four-bet me with any seven? I questioned if he would with a 7-6 or 8-7 type hand and I discounted this possibility further because he would rarely three-bet me preflop with those hands. A-7 suited was a hand he would three-bet me with, maybe even non-suited, but I doubted the non-suited part of his range.

There was one mathematical combination of 7-7, three of K-K and two of A-7 suited. I added extra to accommodate for the possibility of a smaller seven or A-7 offsuit. And I added a little more to include that he might have A-A or A-K. But even if I was a favorite to have the best hand, I wasn’t going to be a big enough favorite to make up for the fact that when I had the worst hand my bets were going in dead or close to dead. Because of that, along with the fact I would be assuming the risk of a reraise, in order to profitably raise I needed to have a significantly greater chance to have the best hand. I flatted the fourth bet.

Colby bet the river and I paid off. As I slid my chips in I saw him break into a wide grin. At that moment I knew I was screwed. He turned over the 7 7, having flopped four sevens. Colby was relishing the moment much more than I.

The hand speaks to using math, player knowledge and hand ranges in reading your opponent’s hands. In his case, with such a high level of action, the parameters of Colby’s holdings were limited. That said, it’s still a “best guess estimate.” I’m not intellectually capable of doing the exact math in my head in the time allowed in the heat of battle. I don’t think many poker players are, though there are a few. But by doing some conceptual “rough justice” I can get close. Close enough to not make major errors in most situations.

It’s relatively easy to read a few poker books, learn the basic plays and concepts, and play a strategy that will beat the non-studious opponent. But if you want to beat the studious players, you need to read hands well. You need to calculate their ranges and make estimates of their probability of holding each portion of those ranges. Once you learn that, you’ll be making more correct plays in line with the current situation.
And those studious opponents that struggle to read hands will never know what hit them! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-376-1515 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke