More About Bluffing: Part VII

In previous bluffing columns, there were a lot of simple assumptions. The assumptions were that you are against one opponent who has checked, there are no more cards to come (at the river). If you bet for value and are called, you always win. If you bluff and are called, you always lose. These assumptions make the situations easier to analyze, but much less realistic. Frequently, there are more cards to come, and sadly, your value bets won’t always win. In fact, they may occasionally run into a check-raise. Your opponent is broadcasting a very strong hand when he checks and then raises, but he might also be trying this as a bluff.

In this column, we will revise our assumptions. The new assumptions are that you are still against one opponent who has checked, there is one more card to come (fourth street, also called the turn). Since there are more cards to come, the current best hand won’t always win. This means that you occasionally attempt a bluff, get called, but then catch a great card and win. This type of bluff was christened a semibluff by David Sklansky. Not only that, but you must decide what to do on the river if your opponent called on the turn and checks again. Assuming the river card didn’t help, you have the option of firing a second bullet (bluffing again).

Let’s begin with a sample hand. Everyone folds to you before the flop. You raise with A K, and only the big blind (BB) calls. The flop is J 10 3. He checks and you bet. There are several reasons for betting. Your opponent might fold a better hand, like 4-4. He might call with a worse hand, like K-Q or Q-9. He might call with a better hand, like Q-J or Q-10, but you pull ahead when the turn is an ace, king or queen. Lastly, even if you have the best hand, you’d like to win before he gets lucky. For example, he might have 9 7. Now a 9, 8 or 7 gives him the lead and a diamond gives him a big draw. So you certainly don’t want to give him a free card. He calls your bet. The turn is the 5, and he checks again.

Your hand: A K and the board is J 10 3 5. This is a mildly good card for you. It gives you a flush draw to go along with your other potential winners. It almost certainly didn’t help your opponent. If he had a marginal call on the flop (a hand like 10-9, 8-8 or 9-8,) it is hard for him to call again. Should you bet? The easy answer is to say — “It depends.” Let’s examine some of what it depends on. Probably the most important factors are what does your opponent have, what is he likely to do now and on the river, and what are your chances of winning? I’ll take them one at a time.

What does your opponent have? He almost certainly doesn’t have a monster. There are only a few combinations (like J-10 or 3-3) that give him a big hand. Even if he had one of those, he might not have check/called the flop and then checked again on the turn. He may have a reasonable one-pair hand like A-J. He might have a weak one-pair hand like Q-10, 10-9 or 8-8. He might have a draw like K-Q, Q-9, 9-8, or even a gutshot like Q-8.
What will he do? Since he doesn’t have a monster, he is likely to call or fold. Even if he calls now, he will often fold to a large river bet. He won’t want to continue with a missed draw or a mediocre pair.

How often will you win? This depends on how he plays, but the typical player will fold at least half the time. If he folds, you will be happy you bet and won. If he calls, you have a lot of outs. You have 12 draws to the nuts — nine spades and three other queens. You might also win with an ace or king. In round numbers, you’ll make the nuts more than 25 percent of the time and make some other winner about another 10 percent of the time. You will also have the option of bluffing again on the river when you miss. The deeper the stacks are, the more you want to bet. If you make the nuts on the river, you’ll be able to make a larger bet since the pot will be bigger.

Even this quick examination of what it depended on is enough. I am convinced it is clear to bet here. I’d have to have a really strong read that my opponent had a hand he wasn’t going to give up before I would check. I often see good players check in this spot. I ask them, “Why?” They’ll say that they are drawing to the nuts, and don’t want to be check-raised off the hand. Based on the analysis above, this is very unlikely. Not only might a bet here win the pot right away, but it will also continue to show strength in case you want to bet on the river. A check, on the other hand, might induce your opponent to bluff on the river. Now he might decide to fire with a missed straight, and you’ll end up folding the best hand. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With two WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.