Winning Poker Tournaments III – Hand No. 49

Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III by Jon “PearlJammer” Turner, Eric “Rizen” Lynch, Jon “Apestyles” Van Fleet, and yours truly, analyzes 50 online poker hands. In Volume III, PearlJammer, Rizen, and Apestyles analyze the same hands and then I give a summary of lessons learned at the end of the hand. This article looks at hand No 49.

Seat 5: 31,964,936 Big Blind (BB)
Seat 6: 8,104,438
Seat 2: 33,792,614 Button Hero
Seat 4: 8,198,012 Small Blind (SB)
400,000-800,000 Blinds, 100,000 Ante
Setup: This is the final table.
Pre-flop A A (1,600,000): You raise to 1,600,000.
Seat 5, big blind, (BB) reraises to 4,800,000.
What do you do?

PearlJammer

On the button, I pick up another halfway playable hand! Seats 4 and 6 have about 10 BBs each and are likely playing more for third place than for the title. Seat 5 surely knows this and is likely trying to stay out of my way to wait for the short stacks to bust. However, he also may take this idea to the next level and decide to play back at me light, if he thinks I’ll expect him to be strong and fold all but the best hands to his pressure.

If his recent play dictates that he is playing conservatively, and thus almost certainly has a very strong hand, then I should four-bet to about 9 million, giving the illusion of fold equity if he chooses to shove all-in. Most importantly, by reraising, I give him the chance to make a mistake before a flop comes out that could scare him into folding his hand.

If my opponent has three-bet me several times recently, then I may choose just to call, setting a trap. This trap could backfire by causing me to lose an enormous pot if my opponent connects strongly with the flop; however, it also may lead him to spew more chips that he would have saved by folding if I had four-bet preflop.

While it is certainly tempting to set a trap, even if he’s been playing back at me recently, this history may also lead him to expect me to make a move and play back at him now. Thus, if I four-bet small preflop, he may move all-in, thinking I am unlikely to have a hand strong enough to call a shove, or he may just have a hand strong enough to feel that it is worth moving all-in for value, anyway.

The worst thing I can do now is four-bet an amount large enough to clearly commit myself to the pot (or all-in). If I made such a play, I would only get action from hands that he would five-bet shove on my small four-bet anyway. The merits of four-betting small far outweigh the possible perks of a risky trap or a large four-bet, no matter what the recent history with my opponent may be. I four-bet to about 9 million.

Rizen

This is very similar to the last hand in the book, but with a few key differences: in this case, the primary difference is that the effective stacks are nearly 40 BBs deep. I’m not aware of what the table dynamics are here, but I would make a rather small reraise to 8.5 million, making it look like I may fold to an all-in. This bet would also offering compelling odds to call preflop, but not so compelling that the call would be correct.

As the big stack raising the second stack, it very well might look like I’m going for a cheap steal using my big stack, and I could induce action from many hands, particularly if Seat 5 is an aggressive player.

Apestyles

What a great spot to be in! Once again, I have a close decision between calling and four-betting. Calling is probably the best play as far as making chips is concerned.

It is unlikely that Seat 5 has a hand with which he is willing to risk his whole stack since there are two stacks with 10 BBs and I have him covered. If I call, there will be 10.4 million in the pot, and since this player tends to bet on the bigger side, I will most likely trap him for another 6 million-9 million bet.

My plan will be to go all-in over his continuation bet (c-bet) on coordinated boards and possibly just call on paired and “dry” boards. The downside of calling is that I would hate to get outflopped and bust out behind the two short stacks. Also, if I make a really small four-bet preflop, there is some chance that I’ll induce a light five-bet or a stubborn call. When playing for this much money, and knowing the principles of the Independent Chip Model (ICM), I definitely wouldn’t argue against going for the lower-variance route and four-betting preflop. If I four-bet, I’ll make it between 8.8 million and 9.6 million.

I think calling preflop is slightly better, considering Seat 5’s range, but I have no problem with taking the safer route and making a very small four-bet instead.

Matthew

It’s difficult to make a bad play in this spot, but the hero managed to do just that. Calling is certainly justified, albeit slightly more risky than four-betting. If you do decide to four-bet, all three pros make the point that you should make it a small four-bet. In this case, the hero decided to four-bet to 12 million. The problem with this play is that when you raise so much, your opponent will know that you are practically committed to calling an all-in bet since you will be getting pot odds of over 2-to-1 to call.

You don’t get premium pairs very often, so it is important to play them correctly to maximize their value. The hero pretty much gave up any hope of winning a big pot unless his opponent had a premium hand, too. By raising smaller, he would have had the chance of a preflop call, or even a chance that his opponent would five-bet light. Once you decide to bet or raise, carefully determine by how much, and how it might affect the play of the hand.

You four-bet to 12 million and your opponent folded. ♠

Matthew is the owner of Dimat Enterprises, “Publishing Today’s Best Poker Books”. Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand at a Time Volume III is available at pokerbooks.InternetTexasHoldem.com in both print and e-book format. You may also try our new iPad app for free, Poker Coach Pro, based on content from the Winning Poker Tournament series.