Extracting your Greatest Edge

Poker’s about pricing. The pot is laying you a given price on every decision, and it’s your job to make the decision that nets you the biggest edge. But it’s not all about doing the math; you must be able to read your opponents’ range to acquire the numbers you need to calculate. And after you have read your opponents’ range, you need to be able to accurately assess how they’ll play those cards.

I was on the button, holding the 10 10 in a $40-$80 limit hold’em game at the start of the World Series of Poker. A loose-tourist limped under the gun (UTG) and was called by a solid player in middle position. It was an easy preflop raise for me with my tens, a big wired pair, and position.

A highly-aggressive player three-bet me out of the big blind (BB), Mr. Tourist and Mr. Solid both called. I contemplated four-betting, but chose not to. I thought that if I didn’t four-bet, Mr. Aggressive would lead with 100 percent of his range postflop, and I could make a better decision on the flop by including the information from the actions of my other two opponents to determine the strength of my hand. By playing my hand in this manner, I might be able to get away from some highly negative edge situations and possibly create more equity if I realized a favorable flop. Yes, I may be giving away a small current edge. But, because doing so would lead to more profitable postflop decisions, I’d make up more than any lost edge postflop. My overall blended expectation on the hand would be higher.

I “swished” the flop, the 10 9 4, giving me top set. As predicted, Mr. Aggressive continuation fired. Mr. Tourist raised and was called by Mr. Solid.

I contemplated my best move. The conventional wisdom on a connected board with a set would be to play it fast, thinking that you’ll get action from straight draws as well as any high pairs. But this hand was going to play unconventionally. Mr. Aggressive, while aggressive, highly respects my raises, doesn’t like to give me action, and would slow down with an overpair against my three-bet. Mr. Tourist, who raised postflop, wouldn’t fold his hand no matter what, and Mr. Solid’s range was most likely a straight draw which he wouldn’t fold and would be getting at least close to the right price on his draw. Mr. Aggressive either had an overpair or overcards, possibly with a straight draw.

I considered my edge against these ranges. An open-ender was getting the right price to draw. A gutshot was an easy one-bet call, but questionable for two against my set with the possibility of additional raises. That said, it was close. An overpair was a big dog to me and overcards even greater. If Mr. Aggressive had overcards without a gutshot or open-ender, he was a drawing almost dead, and any bets received from him would net huge equity for me. And, more importantly, I felt he would fold overcards without a straight draw.

I flatted the two bets, looking to see what Mr. Aggressive would do. He three-bet and was called by Mr. Tourist and Mr. Solid. Now I had a new decision to make, four-bet or flat? The key component being, would Mr. Aggressive five-bet or possibly lead the turn if I four-bet.? If I feel an opponent will read me for a draw, and fire the turn when I four-bet, I’ll often reraise those situations. But because of the level of respect I felt Mr. Aggressive gave me, I thought he’d likely read me for a set. I called the third-bet, looking to trap the field for two bets on the turn.

The 3 turned, a good card for my top set. Mr. Aggressive fired again and was called by Mr. Tourist and Mr. Solid. I hit it and was called by all three. The river came the 4, and it was checked to me, I fired and was called by Mr. Aggressive, the other two folded. I turned over my tens-full and took the pot.

The hand speaks to designing strategies to acquire the highest edge. When designing poker strategies, your edges need to be quantified in terms of expectation, not nominally. By that, I mean the value of a bet isn’t the nominal denomination of the wager, but the edge you receive from the bet. That applies to your opponents’ wagers also. If an opponent is calling correctly, you’d rather he fold. If he is calling incorrectly, you’d rather he call. The trick is to maximize the blended equity of all your wagers, not necessarily just build a larger pot because you think your hand is presently good.

By playing my hand the way I did, I induced my opponents to misread my holding, which caused them to deposit greater money into the pot on the turn when their edges were much worse. Their bets on the turn had very poor equity, and they were placed when the betting limits had increased, further increasing their equity loss. Additionally, my flop play created a situation where I may have been able to draw more cheaply had one of my opponents made a hand that beat me on the turn.

When your strategizing how to play your hand, think about how it will play, what will your opponents read you for, and how you can play it to acquire the highest edge based on the blended expectation of all the plausible scenarios.

And yes, I know that’s not easy. If someone told you poker was going to be easy, they didn’t understand the game themselves. But with repetition, you’ll learn these calculations.

And when you do, your edge over your opponents is going up and will translate into winning more moolah! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is [email protected]. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke