More About Bluffing: Part VIII

In previous columns, there were a lot of simplifying assumptions. For this column we will avoid most of these assumptions. You are still against one opponent, who has checked. There are more cards to come. Your value bets won’t always win and your bluffs won’t always lose. A typical situation is that preflop you raised in the cutoff. The big blind (BB) called. Now the flop arrives and he checks. Note that you have a variety of plans available. To balance your ranges or to keep your opponent guessing, it is best to follow all these lines with both value betting hands and bluffing hands.
These are the lines you can follow:

- Bet three times (flop, turn and river.)
- Bet twice:

a) bet flop and turn, but check river
b) bet flop, check turn and bet river
c) check flop, but bet turn and river

- Bet once: Either the flop, the turn or the river
- Plan to check all the way.

Notice that this gives you eight possible ways you can plan to bet a hand. When you take your initial action on the flop, you don’t have to have your complete plan ready. The turn card and the read you have on your opponent may influence your next play. You must also be aware that your opponent may have a plan of his own, and take an action that interferes with your plan. For example, you plan to bet the flop, but if called, you check on the turn and the river. You bet the flop and he calls. On the turn he checks and you check. On the river, before you have a chance to check, he bets. Now instead of a quiet showdown, you have to decide if he has a hand or if he’s bluffing because you showed weakness.

All of this is what makes poker so complicated. I haven’t even mentioned issues of bet sizing, which is one of the many poker skills that is a blend of art and science. There is one point I want to emphasize. It is that if you are making pot-sized bets, your opponent must call at least half the time or you will show an immediate profit. To illustrate this, just look at the case where the pot is 100 and you bet 100. If an opponent calls 40 percent and folds 60 percent, you will average a profit of 20, even if you never win any of the hands after he has called. Many opponents, when out of position and suspecting you have a strong hand, will fold too often. Therefore you must bet most, if not all, of these situations.

Notice that I suggested you bet most of the time in any spot when you think you opponent is not going to call often enough. After raising preflop, you will be bluffing a lot of the time on the flop. Your opponent knows he is out of position. He assumes you had something to raise initially and then bet the flop. He will fold most of his weak hands. You have made that initial bluff or semibluff and have been called. The turn card is dealt, and he checks again. The fact that he called on the flop is a sign that he has something (although out-of-position floats have become more fashionable among young players, who know they have to call at least half the time). If you missed the flop and the turn doesn’t help, you probably should check. To fire a second pot-sized bullet with total air is generally a losing tactic.

There are obviously too many situations to discuss them all, but let’s examine one specific hand and see what plays are logical. Let’s say you raised initially with J 10. The flop was K 8 4. You bet again. This continuation bet (c-bet) is more of a bluff than anything else. If the turn is the 2, and it is checked to you again, you should check. A bet on a hand that has have very little showdown equity and almost no chance to pick up any on the river, when you will have to make another even larger bet to win the pot, is probably taking on too much risk. If the turn had been a spade, a queen, a nine, a ten or a jack, then it makes sense to continue betting. Not only will you win the pot with your second bullet some of the time, but also all these cards provided you with potential river outs. Note that your flop bet was close to a pure bluff. These turn cards fit with your hand well enough to make your turn bet a classic semibluff. If you miss on the river, make your pot-sized bet whenever you feel your opponent will fold more than half the time. This is a matter of reading your opponent and table feel. ♠

Steve ‘Zee’ Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful gamesplayer. He has been a full-time gambler for over 35 years. With 2 WSOP bracelets and few million in tournament cashes, he is easing into retirement. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at some major tournaments and playing in cash games in Vegas. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A in New York City -The Library near Houston and Doc Holliday’s on 9th St. are his favorites.