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September 11 — A lot of times when the top card pairs — especially when it’s a rag — it really isn’t a scare card.

Last week at Commerce, I was playing the $5-$10 $1,500 cap game and got into an interesting multi-way spot. I opened to $35 with 10-10 from under the gun plus one, the cutoff called, and both the small blind and the big blind called. The flop came out 6 5 4. Even though I held an overpair, this was not the best board for me, as many turn cards could potentially cause me to not have the best holding. Also, if someone were to raise my bet on the flop, it would be hard for me to continue, as almost all two pair combinations are possible that would call a preflop raise as well as straights. Still, though, I thought a bet for value was definitely prudent and fired $100. The cutoff folded and both blinds called. The turn was the 6, pairing the top card. The small blind checked again and, this time, the big blind bet out $300.  Now, on the surface, the six looks like it could be a scary card, as someone may have called my continuation bet with top pair. However, if we analyze the hand a little more in-depth and use early street hand reading, we can deduce that he does not have many sixes in his range.  In fact, if the player is reasonable and not clueless, the only six he could have is 7-6 or possibly 6-3 suited. It would be very difficult for him to call with a hand like A-6 after the preflop raiser continuation bet into so many people and someone to his right called. Any halfway-experienced player would know that top pair as a six is rarely going to be good in that spot.

Also, if this player had checked, I think that a lot of people also make the mistake of checking back this board-pairing card because they think it is a scare card. But, in actuality, for the reasons that I just stated, it is very rare that a ragged top pair is in their range and all you are doing by not betting is giving them a free card to beat you. Because of the combination of these factors I thought it was a pretty easy turn call for me and a reevaluation on the river. After I called, the small blind folded behind me. The river brought the 9. This is a situation I often refer to as “fifth street chicken” on my training site CrushLivePoker.com. Calling on the turn basically announces my hand as an overpair and you get into a situation of basically daring your opponent or “playing chicken” to bet at the end because it looks so much like you are going to call. Against some players who are not capable of pulling a large bluff amount on the river or just do not have the guts, if they fire big again I very well may fold.  This breaks the whole adage of calling the river when nothing changes from the turn. The fact that your opponent bet again is change enough. 

In this particular situation, I actually was unfamiliar with my opponent and very well may have called down because he has so few sixes in his range.  However, he checked at the end after thinking about it for a long time. At this point, I actually think that I made a mistake and bet $400. Even though after he checks I have the best hand probably 99 percent of the time, my opponent rarely has a hand that can call a bet.  If he has a bare seven he has missed and, even with a hand like 7-5 or 8-8, it is very difficult for him to be good. I mean, what can I possibly have after continuation-betting the flop into three players and calling his turn bet? 

But the main thing that you should take away from this article is that when the top card pairs and it is small, especially on a draw-heavy board and someone has overcalled, they rarely will just have top pair, as that holding is not strong enough for them to call the flop. 

September 15 — You can learn a lot about someone else’s hand by looking at your own.

Great no-limit players are more concerned with what their opponent holds as opposed to their own hand. A lot of players, however, do not realize that there is a lot of information that can be gained from your own hand to help you put your opponent on an accurate range. A perfect example of this can be shown from a hand that I observed recently while playing a $5-$10 uncapped game.  The stacks were pretty deep in the hand, with the two larger amounts being more than $3,000 and the smaller being about $1,900. The hand started with one of the players with the larger stacks limping in under the gun. This guy was obviously a recreational player, as he played almost half of all of his hands preflop. I also had seen him lose a mountain of money earlier when he could not get away from a flopped flush when it was pretty obvious that he did not have the best hand. A few people limped behind him, and a relatively solid player with the other large stack raised to $60 from the cutoff. The small blind called, as did the limpers, making it a pot of $310 five-ways. The board came out Q 7 4 and the action checked to the preflop raiser.  He confidently bet $225 and the small blind, a very solid, experienced professional, raised to $700 with the $1,900 stack. The under the gun player now snap-moved all-in. The action got back to the original raiser, who took some time with it, asked to see the small blind’s stack, and finally called the all-in. The small blind followed suit and there was a massive pot. The board ran out blank-blank and the hands were revealed. The small blind had a set of sevens, the under the gun player had 9 2, and the preflop raiser had J 10. 

A friend of mine actually pulled me aside to talk about the hand and asked me if I would have called with just the jack-high flush, knowing that the small blind was very solid and that one of the two players could have had him beat. To be honest, I was slightly taken aback by how quickly he called with the third nuts for that amount of money and facing that heat. However, upon further analyzation, I think that J 10 is an easy call in this spot, and it does not have much to do with the pot odds. 

The key to this hand is noticing the exact cards contained within the preflop raiser’s hand and accepting the fact that it is rare that players fast play a flopped nut flush. When we say that the small blind is a good, experienced professional, we can make some pretty accurate assumptions as to the hands that he will and will not play to a large raise from out of position. If I were to tell you that it was impossible for the small blind to have flopped a king-high flush on this board, can you figure out why? What exact hands might he call $60 preflop that contain a king-high suit? K-Q, K-J, and K-10 are the only ones that are reasonable. Because the Q is on the flop, he cannot have K-Q and, most importantly, because the preflop raiser has the J and 10 in his hand, he cannot have K-J or K-10. It is extremely unlikely that he is playing any smaller suited king, so we can say with very high confidence that he cannot have a king-high flush. Now, what about an ace-high flush? Besides the fact that it is so rare for people to fast play the nut flush, even if this player did, we can look at the same type of card removal issues and examine his calling range preflop. With some frequency, he is going to reraise A K preflop. He cannot have A-Q, A-J or A-10 because of the board and preflop raiser’s hand, so he would literally have to call with ace-rag suited of hearts and fast play the flop. Those two things are possible, but unlikely if both have to happen together. 

However, there are six total combinations of sets of fours and sevens. This is a far more likely holding than the nut flush for the small blind in my opinion. J 10 is far ahead of the range for the small blind. And, because the under the gun player is playing so many hands, coupled with the fact that he obviously has no concept of hand strength in deep pots, J 10 is for sure a call here. 

Early street hand reading coupled with card removal from noticing your own hand are powerful tools that great no-limit players have mastered.  It will take some practice, but these concepts are not that difficult. Just make sure to pay attention to all of the action throughout the hand and realize that you can learn a lot of information about your opponents’ hands through noticing your own. ♠

Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on Twitter @CrushLivePoker and @BartHanson. Check out his poker training site exclusively made for live cash game play at CrushLivePoker.com where he produces weekly podcasts and live training videos.